Real Name Registration: Burden or Not for Weibo? 实名制会否成为新浪微博的负担？

By newsdoug on March 14, 2012

Just a day before an initial deadline requiring all microblog users to register with their real names, domestic media are reporting that leading operator Weibo, a unit of Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has registered some 60 percent of users with their real names. (Chinese article) So the real question becomes: Will this new requirement become a major impediment to growth of this space, or were earlier fears overblown? The answer probably lies somewhere in between, following implementation of this controversial policy by Chinese regulators in an effort to curtail rumor mongoring by microbloggers who could previously say whatever they wanted online and hide behind a veil of anonymity. (previous post) The 60 percent conversion rate actually looks not bad to me, as it proves that at least 60 percent of Sina’s estimate 250 million registered users are active enough to want to keep posting their latest thoughts and other materials on Weibo. That translates to 150 million active users, which should still be an attractive audience for advertisers and others looking to leverage Weibo as Sina seeks out ways to commercialize the service. The 40 percent of users who haven’t registered with their real names translates to a sizable 100 million people, many of whom could soon lose their rights to post messages on their accounts once the deadline passes. Of this figure, a sizable number — perhaps one-third to one-half — might still remain active Weibo users, since many people simply like to read other people’s postings on Sina and rarely post items themselves. This group of readers in theory should be allowed to continue to use Weibo even if they don’t register their real names, since the real-name requirement is designed to discourage people from spreading rumors and thus shouldn’t apply to people who use Weibo in read-only mode. So if even a third of the users who haven’t registered their real names continue as “read only” users, that would give Weibo around another 30 million users, meaning that altogether it could retain up to 70 percent of its original user base before the original requirement was imposed. That’s certainly not a bad number, and the new requirement could perhaps even attract more users as it will effectively “clean up” the quality of postings, since many people may now be more reluctant to post obscene, viscous or other offensive material for fear of being tracked down by authorities. Of course, the big risk is the potential for online uprisings and massive defections if a Weibo user gets detained or questioned by police due to something they wrote on their Weibo. But for the moment at least, the real-name system looks like its impact on Weibo could be relatively limited, and perhaps even beneficial in the long term, as Sina tries to make the unit profitable in the run-up to a like spin off and IPO as soon as the second half of next year.

Bottom line: Implementation of a real-name system is having limited impact on Weibo and other microblogs, and could even attract more users by improving the quality of postings.

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