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Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has taken the interesting step of getting 40 new patents in China, in what looks like an opening move that could ultimately see it target the growing number of Chinese cellphone makers that use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android cellphone operating system. (English article) The report in the China Daily focuses on the more obvious potential aims of the patents, such as closing a slew of bogus Apple stores that have sprung up in China as Apple’s sales have soared to surpass those of leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992). (previous post) But the article points out the new patents also cover Apple’s popular user-friendly smartphone operating system (OS), which has been largely responsible for the huge boom in its iPhone and smartphone sales in general over the last 3 years. Apple has argued that Google’s free Android OS, which has been embraced by many of the world’s top cellphone makers, is a copycat of its own OS, and has successfully sued to halt the sale of popular Android-based smartphones and tablet PCs from Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Based on that behavior, this new round of patent filings in China looks like Apple is preparing to sue Chinese smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo and TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618; Shenzhen: 000100), which all use Android. ZTE in particular could be at big risk, as its recent drive to become a global leader in smartphones costing as little as $100 each (previous post) relies heavily on Android. If Apple does file such a lawsuit, it will be interesting to see how China’s courts react as obviously any ruling in Apple’s favor could deal a big blow to the domestic industry. But anyone industry watchers should also note that Chinese courts don’t appear to have any power to make temporary rulings like judges do in the US, meaning any enforcement action can only occur after a judge makes a final decision — a process that could take months or even a year. Still, considering Apple’s success so far in the US against giants like Samsung and HTC, Chinese smartphone makers would be well advised to start drawing up plans for new Android alternatives if and when Apple moves its anti-Android battle to China.

Bottom line: Apple’s new round of patents in China look like the prelude to lawsuits against domestic smartphone makers like ZTE, which rely heavily on Google’s free Android operating system.

苹果(AAPL.O)在华成功申请了40项新专利，其终极目标看似是对采用谷歌(GOOG.O)Android系统的中国手机商亮剑的第一步。《中国日报》的报导侧重苹果旨在专利维权的一面，例如关闭苹果山寨零售店等。由于苹果电脑在华销量大涨，超过PC领军企业联想(0992.HK)，苹果山寨店如雨後春笋般涌现。但文章指出，苹果新申请的专利还包括其界面友好的智能手机操作系统(OS)，这一操作系统是过去三年推动iPhone和智能手机销量整体上升的重要原因。苹果辩称，全球许多顶级手机商采用的谷歌免费提供的Android系统，是抄袭苹果OS系统的设计。苹果还在宏达电(HTC)(2498.TW)和三星(005930.KS)专利侵权案中胜诉，成功迫使两家公司的Android智能手机和平板电脑暂停销售。鉴于此举，苹果在华新一轮的专利申请，看似将准备起诉使用Android系统的中国智能手机制造商，例如中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想和TCL通讯(2618.HK)。中兴通讯面临的风险尤其大，因为其近期力争成为售价低至100美元的智能手机的全球领军企业，该公司的这一计划严重依赖Anroid系统。如果苹果提出侵权诉讼，中国法院如何回应是件有趣的事情，因为任何明显有利于苹果的判决，都将重创中国手机产业。但业内观察者也指出，中国法庭进行终裁後才会有执行举措，而法庭裁判过程往往耗时数月甚至一年。话说回来，考虑到苹果在美胜诉三星和宏达电侵权，中国智能手机商最好早做打算，制定替代Android的新计划，以防苹果万一在华打响反击Android战役。

一句话：苹果在华新一轮专利申请，看似是起诉中兴通讯等中国智能手机商的前奏，这些本土企业严重依赖谷歌免费提供的Android操作系统。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

Anti-Monopoly Regulator Makes Poor Choice in Chasing China Telecom 中国反垄断初试牛刀 选错对象

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After a couple of years of a low-key approach and not doing much, China’s anti-monopoly regulator is finally getting to work by investigating China Telecom’s (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) dominance in the country’s broadband market. I’ll admit this is an interesting case, and have to applaud the regulator for following up on complaints by names like China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Tietong that China Telecom unfairly uses its dominant position to keep others out of the market. (English article; Chinese article) But frankly speaking, the regulator has chosen the wrong case to test out its powers as enforcer of fair market competition. China Telecom certainly has a dominant position in broadband, drawing on its legacy wired networks to provide services to the companies and consumers, especially in the southern China where it has the most extensive networks. But there are many indications that more competition is coming, and indeed already exists. Unicom itself already has significant fixed-line broadband representation in the northern China, the result of a decade-old split that saw the nation’s previous wired-line phone monopoly split up and its northern networks given to Unicom and the southern ones to China Telecom. Furthermore, China Mobile (HKEx: CHL) is on a current campaign to build extensive wi-fi service, another form of broadband, with plans to build 1 million hot spots in the next 3 years (previous post). China’s current drive to consolidate its cable TV operators should produce yet another major wired broadband player. With all these alternatives in the market, not to mention China Mobile’s 4G network that could launch commercial service as soon as next year, it will be hard for the regulator to determine that China Telecom has a monopoly on broadband service. I do applaud the regulator for taking on this difficult case, but instead it should focus on speeding up approval for YUM Brands’ (NYSE: YUM) pending purchase of hot pot chain Little Sheep (HKEx: 968), announced 5 months ago (previous post), which has no monopolistic implications but has some worried the deal could be vetoed on nationalistic grounds.

Bottom line: China’s anti-monopoly regulator has made a bad choice in chasing China Telecom’s broadband dominance in its first tough case.

中国《反垄断法》出台三年来，相关部委一直低调行事且作为有限，如今终於“初试牛刀”，对主导国内宽带接入市场的中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>展开反垄断调查。我承认这很有趣，不得不为监管机构回应中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国铁通的抱怨鼓掌。这些电信商称，中国电信不公平利用其宽带市场主导地位，试图排挤其它竞争对手。但坦白地说，监管机构希望推动市场公平竞争，但初试牛刀却选错对象。中国电信凭借已有的有线网络，向各大公司和消费者提供服务，确实在宽带接入市场占主导地位，尤其是在中国电信网络覆盖很广的南方地区。但许多迹象表明，该领域竞争已经展开，并即将激烈化。联通占有中国北方固话宽带较大份额。这是原中国电信十年前南北分拆的结果。此外，中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>正在拓展WiFi服务（宽带的另一种形式），计划未来三年在全国增加100万个WiFi热点。中国目前整合有线电视运营商的行动，也将制造另一个有线宽带竞争者，更别提中国移动4G网络最早明年可能实现商用。宽带市场拥有上述替代选择，监管者很难断定，中国电信垄断国内宽带服务。我的确要为监管机构处理这一棘手问题叫好，但他们更应加速百胜集团<YUM.N>收购小肥羊<0968.HK>的审批，这笔交易并无垄断迹象，但一些人担忧，该交易或因民族主义原因而被否决。

一句话：中国监管机构就宽带接入问题，对中国电信进行反垄断调查，但初试牛刀却选错对象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Wi-Fi Play Misguided 中移动：百万WiFi热点？

◙ China Telecom Joins Hot Spot Frenzy Wifi热潮兴起 中国电信与中国移动谁将胜出？

◙ YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

Tidbits: UMPay, Giant Interactive, China Telecom

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Today marks the launch of a new item consisting of occasional tidbits that aren’t big enough for individual articles but look interesting nonetheless, along with a thought or two on what it all means.

— UMPay: Chinese media are reporting that this joint venture between industry powerhouses China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) is applying for a license to provide electronic payment services. (English article) Given the two venture partners’ dominant position in both of their spaces, such a venture could quickly become a major player, threatening smaller e-payments companies as well as bigger ones like Alibaba’s Alipay.

— Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA): The company has announced a payout date of September 9 for its massive one-time dividend of $3 per share, which amounts to a whopping 36 percent of its latest closing share price. (company announcement) Its stock has risen about 50 cents a share since it announced the dividend early this month, clearly far less than the size of the dividend. I’ll be watching closely to see how the shares trade on September 12, after the dividend is paid.

— China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA): Chinese media report the company recently launched a tender for more than 3 million set-top boxes — the clearest sign yet that China’s leading fixed-line carrier is close to a major launch for a video-on-demand type service that it has long talked about but has yet to appear. (English article) Such a service could provide a major source of new income, as the company struggles with steady declines for its fixed-line phone business.

Giant Fires CFO, Offers Dividend to Placate Investors 巨人网络CFO辞职 高额分红以安抚投资者

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There’s nothing like a big fat dividend to say you’re sorry, or at least that seems to be what online game operator Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) is telling investors by becoming the latest US-listed Chinese firm to offer a dividend after coming under fire for some of its accounting practices. The company also announced the resignation of its CFO, again in an apparent attempt to mollify investors about one of its investments in an insurance business. But first the dividend. Just a week after real estate services firm Soufun (NYSE: SFUN) offered wary investors a 5 percent dividend (previous post), becoming the first major US-listed Chinese firm to offer such a dividend, Giant has come out with its own offering of a dividend of $3 a share, according to its latest results announcement. (company announcement) That translates to a yield of a whopping 40 percent, one of the highest rates I’ve seen in recent years, based on Giant’s latest closing price. At the same time, the company also announced the resignation of its CFO, who is being replaced by another person whose credentials include a stint at global accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers. (company announcement) Reading between the lines seems relatively simple here: Giant’s chairman used the company as his personal investment vehicle to buy an insurance company, a move that no doubt was approved by a CFO who was eager to please his boss even though insurance was completely unrelated to Giant’s core gaming business. When investors found out, they protested by selling off Giant shares, which tumbled 30 percent in the last 3 months. To win investors back, Giant is offering this generous dividend and has fired its CFO as a scapegoat. This is exactly the kind of shenanigan that has led to a broader confidence crisis over the accounting practices of US-listed Chinese companies. If I were an investor, I would certainly consider buying Giant for the short term simply for the dividend. But longer term, I’d still be quite wary of this and many other US-listed Chinese companies.

Bottom line: Giant Interactive’s awarding of a generous dividend and firing of its CFO is an attempt to mollify investors over accounting concerns, which will continue to weigh on the company’s stock.

要想表达歉意，没什麽能比提供一份丰厚的分红更好的了——至少近来因会计事宜而遭遇批评的网络游戏公司巨人网络是想通过这种方式来与投资者沟通。巨人网络还宣布首席财务官(CFO)辞职，很明显这也是就一笔保险生意的投资来安抚投资者。就在一个星期前，搜房网(SFUN.N: 行情)决定给投资者5%的分红，这是第一家这麽做的在美国市场上市的中国公司，而巨人网络则紧随其後，提供每股3美元的分红，这意味将40%的利润用来分红，这是近年来我看到的分红力度最大的一次。同时，巨人网络还宣布了新的CFO上任，此人曾经在普华永道工作。解读这一系列事件，其中隐含的意思其实很简单：巨人的董事长将这家公司作为其个人投资工具，购买了一家保险公司，而CFO为了讨好自己的老板，就毫不犹豫地批准了，没有顾及到保险业务是与巨人的核心游戏业务完全无关的。投资者发现後，通过抛售巨人股票以示抗议，巨人股票在过去三个月就大跌30%。为了安抚投资者，巨人提出分红并解雇CFO。但实际上这会让人们对巨人的财务状况产生更大的信任危机。如果我是投资者，我肯定会短期内买巨人的股票，来获得分红，但从较长期投资角度而言，我会对巨人公司和其他在美国上市的中国公司持警惕态度。

一句话：巨人网络公司提供丰厚分红，解聘其CFO，是为了安抚投资者对会计问题的担心。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sofun’s New Strategy: Dividend Wave Ahead? 搜房网新策略：中国概念股派息潮即将来临？

◙ 55tuan Scraps Listing Plan After Banks Get Cold Feet 各投行临阵退缩 “窝窝团”放弃赴美上市

◙ Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

China Merchants Bank Kicks Off “Capital Raising II” 招商银行掀起第二轮融资热潮

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Move over, QE II. Chinese banks, unsatisfied with the hundreds of billions of dollars they raised to bolster their balance sheets just two years ago, appear to be gearing up for Capital Raising II, with China Merchants Bank’s (HKEx: 3968 Shanghai: 600036) announcement that it will raise up to $5.4 billion through simultaneous rights offers in Hong Kong and Shanghai. (company announcement; English article) China Merchants is no doubt counting on the short memories of many investors, hoping they will forget that it announced a similar program almost exactly two  years ago to raise a more modest $2.6 billion. So if my math is correct, China Merchants will have raised about $8 billion through these two offerings — a staggering amount when you consider its market cap in Hong Kong is only about $9 billion. Analysts will tell you this new round of CR II, which will undoubtedly be followed by more similar announcements from other major Chinese banks, is designed to meet Beijing’s ever rising capital adequacy ratio requirements as it tries to cool a racing economy that got that way in large part due to excessive state-ordered lending at the height of the global financial crisis. But this latest capital raising by China Merchants is starting to looking increasingly like an outright recapitalization of Chinese banks, which are no doubt woefully unprepared for the economic downturn and resulting piles of bad debt that many believe are coming. The small bit of good news in this is that Beijing, as the majority shareholder of all the major banks, will ultimately foot most of the bill for this ongoing recapitalization. The bad news is that the banks’ minority shareholders will also have to pay part of the bill, and that these stocks are likely to take a beating in the months ahead.

Bottom line: China Merchants announcement of its second major fund-raising in just two years looks like an outright recapitalization, and underscores the shaky position of all Chinese banks.

新一轮量化宽松来了。中国银行业不满足於两年前数千亿美元的集资规模，如今似乎将再次进行融资。中国招商银行<600036.SS><3968.HK>宣布，将在香港和上海发行权利股，筹集54亿美元。招行无疑是寄望於许多投资者健忘，希望他们记不起该行在两年前曾宣布过类似计划，集资26亿美元。所以，如果我计算正确的话，招行两次筹集资金总额约为80亿美元–鉴於招行在香港市值仅约为90亿美元，上述募资规模确实惊人。分析师会告诉你，本次新一轮融资是为满足中国政府不断提高的资本充足率要求，中国其他大型银行无疑亦将宣布类似举措。中国正试图为其经济降温，中国出现这种局面很大程度是因为全球金融危机最严重时，中国政府要求增发贷款过多。但招行本次筹资日益像是中国银行业一次资本重组，中国银行业显然未对经济低迷做好充足准备，许多人认为，大量坏账即将出现。好消息是，中国政府和各银行大股东终将为此次资本重组埋单。坏消息是，银行小股东也将不得不承担一部分费用，这些银行股未来数月或遭重创。

一句话：时隔两年，中国招商银行再次宣布大规模融资，看似一次彻头彻尾的资本重组，凸显中国各银行的问题。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Readies Market for More Bank Begging 中资银行准备再筹资

◙ ICBC: Maintaining Profits, As Shareholders Foot the Bill

◙ Beijing Money Shut-Off Reaches a Roar, Real Estate Suffers 银行贷款下降 房地产市场受压

Trina Doubles Warranty in Search of Sales 天合光能：延长产品质保年限以提振销售

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As the solar industry goes through one of its worst-ever downturns with no end in sight, Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) is trying a new approach to try and bolster flagging sales by doubling the usual warranty period for its panels to 10 years from the current industry standard off 5. (company announcement) Trina is also offering other performance guarantees to try and boost its business, in a sector which has seen prices fall steadily in the last six months due to weak global demand as interest in this once promising sector dims with the fading of the global financial crisis. This kind of extended warranty is probably not a bad idea from a marketing perspective, and presumably won’t add much cost to Trina since most of its products are probably already solid enough that buyers wouldn’t need to ever actually exercise such warranties. So perhaps it could steal a sale or two from a rival, assuming others don’t follow suit with similar warranties. But at the end of the day, the only thing that will really help Trina, or any other solar panel makers for that matter, is a return in demand for installing new solar energy, which doesn’t look set to happen anytime soon. We saw an interesting move last week as a couple of solar panel makers announced plans to build their own solar plant to create more demand for their products (previous post), and Beijing may also be considering a boost in its domestic plans for solar installation (previous post), which could also help the sector. But until demand really improves on a sustained basis — which doesn’t look like it will happen anytime soon, Trina and its rivals will have to battle with each other for steadily shrinking demand in this once-promising sector.

Bottom line: Trina Solar’s introduction of new extended warranties may help to steal a sale or two from a rival, but won’t make any major contributions to its top or bottom lines.

太阳能行业正在经历最严重的衰退期之一，何时走出来似乎还遥遥无期。在此整体行业背景下，天合光能<TSL.N>正在尝试新的策略来提振销售：将其太阳能电池板的质量保证年限从目前行业标准5年延长至10年。天合光能还在提供其他质保来尽力提振业务。从营销角度讲，延长质保期限大概不是坏事，而且应该不至于给公司带来太多额外成本负担，因其多数产品质量大概非常过硬，买家实际上无需行使这些质保权利。因此，假设同行没有类似举动，天合光能或许能从对手那里夺过一点销售份额。但最终，无论对天合光能还是其他太阳能厂商而言，真正能帮得上忙的还是市场对新装太阳能需求的回归，但这一幕似乎短期内难以实现。

一句话：天合光能延长质保或许能从竞争对手那里夺取一点市场份额，但对於公司业绩难有重大贡献。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Backs Solar Firms With Europe Financing 中国继续支持国内太阳能企业

◙ Beijing Warms Up Solar Sector 中国政府向太阳能产业伸出援手

◙ China Comes to Rescue With Yingli Loan 英利获贷款承诺 政府终出手相助

Tencent Chases a Faded Giant in Myspace 腾讯竞购末路英雄Myspace

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I have to say that the latest reports that Tencent (HKEx: 700) is mulling a bid for News Corp’s (Nasdaq: NWSA) faded social networking site Myspace left me a bit puzzled. (English report; Chinese report) My only explanation is that China’s leading Internet company has way too much cash in its coffers and doesn’t know what to do with it. In many ways, Myspace is like former Internet giant AOL, which looked unbeatable in its heyday and is now struggling just to stay alive. Then again, Tencent’s interest shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, following its bid last year in another faded social networking giant, Friendster. Luckily for Tencent, it ultimately lost in the bidding war for that company, and if it’s lucky Tencent will lose in the bidding for Myspace as well. Who knows: perhaps all these bids are just a performance for Tencent to show shareholders it’s looking for overseas investments to expand the business. But my guess is that these attempts are really serious, and could leave Tencent with major liabilities if it ever succeeds in buying one of these faded giants.

Bottom line: If Tencent is smart, it will stop chasing washed-up Internet giants and focus its overseas M&A efforts on young firms with good growth potential.

不得不说，最近有关腾讯<0700.HK>打算收购新闻集团<NWSA.O>旗下没落的社交网站Myspace的报导着实让我有点摸不着头脑。我唯一的解释只能是，这家中国领先的互联网公司实在是现金太多了，不知道该如何花。在很多方面，Myspace就好像昔日的互联网巨头AOL——鼎盛时看起来无坚不摧，如今却苟延残喘。但腾讯的收购意向不应该太让人意外，因去年它就曾竞购另一家没落的社交网站巨头 Friendster。幸运的是，腾讯对那家公司的竞购没有成功。如果腾讯再次输掉Myspace竞购战，那也会是一桩幸事。但谁知道呢，也许腾讯竞购这些公司只不过是演戏给股东看，告诉他们公司在寻找海外投资对象，以扩展业务。不过，我猜腾讯还是认真的，而如果腾讯成功购得这些昔日巨头中的任何一家，恐怕都要承担与之相关的大规模债务。底线是，如果腾讯够聪明，那就不要再追逐这些互联网业过气明星，而要把海外并购力量集中在增长潜力良好的年轻公司身上。

一句话： 腾讯如果聪明会放掉追求过时老网行，而会注意年轻而有前途的公司上。

Related postings 有关文章:

◙ Facebook’s China Tie Up: No Big Deal

◙ Tencent Takes on Video Sharing in New Alliance 腾讯觊觎视频霸主地位

◙ Snaptu: Facebook’s China Back Door? Facebook在中国走“後门”？

Ctrip Finds Growth Recipe in Restaurants 携程：进军在线订餐

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There’s some interesting news out there regarding online travel pioneer Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP), which Chinese media say is adding the restaurant business to its menu of services. (English report; Chinese report) Now normally I’m not a big fan of Chinese industry leaders that look for new growth outside their core areas, but in this case I think that Ctrip’s move may actually be a good one. After all, this is one of the few cases of a Chinese Web company that ventured from its original roots to become successful in another related area. In this case I’m talking about Ctrip’s move from its original online hotel booking service into airline booking, which now makes up a big chunk of its business. Restaurants are sort of related to its two current mainstays, as travelers often want to find good places to eat. I also like Ctrip’s go-slow approach to adding new businesses, unlike other me-too Internet companies like Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), that keep venturing into new business areas every few months, mostly without success.

Bottom line: Ctrip’s move into the restaurant space is a smart one, and could easily fatten up its top and bottom lines in the next few years.

中国在线旅游服务的先行者携程旅行网<CTRP.O>也有了新动作。中国媒体报 道，携程进军在线订餐市场，旗下美食订餐频道已经上线接受预订。通 常，我并不看好处於行业领先地位的中国公司扩展其主业之外的业务。但携程可能成为少有的例外–毕竟，这已经不是携程第一次成功拓展核心业务领域。携程以 在线预订旅馆酒店起家，後来成功进军机票预订领域。而餐饮与上述两项都密切相关：旅行者往往喜欢品尝旅游目的地的美食。另外，携程对扩展业务比较谨慎，三 思而後行，这与盛大<SNDA.O>和百度<BIDU.O>动辄贸然出击截然不同。

一句话：携程进军餐饮预订是聪明之举，在未来几年对其销售额和盈利能力都有帮助。

INTERNET: Facing Stiff Competition, the Twitter-Like Weibo Looks to ‘Oasis’ for Relief

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Bottom line: Weibo and its stock could remain under pressure for some time to come, potentially a long time if its new Oasis platform doesn’t provide the kind of relief that it is hoping for.

Weibo looks to Oasis for relief

With corporate earnings in the spotlight, I’ve decided to zoom in this week on the Twitter-like Weibo (Nasdaq: WB), following the release of its quarterly results a week ago. As a long-time China tech watcher, I particularly like Weibo for its ability to reinvent itself, and like to think of it as “The little company that could, then couldn’t, then could again, then couldn’t” and so on.

Hopefully I’m not dating myself with that reference to the American childhood classic “The Little Engine That Could,” about a train that overcomes various obstacles to show the world its true abilities. But the bottom line is that Weibo has reinvented itself at least once in its brief lifetime that began with a bang a decade ago. It’s currently trying to do that again with a new soon-to-launch product called Oasis, which I’ll examine more closely in the second half of this column. Read Full Post…