Search Results for: baidu e-commerce

360Buy Losing Focus With Travel Plan 京东商城涉足在线旅行服务业 偏离核心业务

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China’s Internet companies are famous for straying from their core businesses in pursuit of new growth even though such initiatives seldom work, and now e-commerce specialist 360Buy looks set to joint the club with a new travel services initiative. (English article) Nearly ever major Chinese Internet firm has dabbled in areas outside its core competency, with names like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Alibaba all making such initiatives, nearly all of which have ended in abysmal failures. None of these companies seem to have noticed that the big western names like Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) and Expedia (Nasdaq: EXPE) have succeeded largely by focusing on their core areas, and only expanding into new ones when they can leverage some of their existing expertise. So that makes the latest move by 360Buy, which also goes by the name Jingdong Mall, look perfectly consistent with what other Chinese companies have done. In this case, 360Buy says it will launch a hotel booking service, and that it has already signed up 20,000 hotels in China, Hong Kong and Macau as partners. A company spokesman said the move is part of the company’s drive to become a more diversified online services company, instead of just an e-commerce specialist. Never mind the fact that the online travel services sector is already quite competitive, dominated by Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and Expedia-controlled eLong (Nasdaq: LONG), or that Baidu also recently entered the space with its investment in a company called Qunar. (previous post) We should also ignore the fact that 360Buy is currently locked in a series of price wars with rivals like Dangdang (NYSE DANG), and that rival Alibaba has learned its lesson and remains focused on e-commerce after its foray into online search ended in a complete disaster several years ago. In fact, I suspect this latest initiative is probably designed to generate market interest in 360Buy, which wants desperately to make a New York IPO to raise much needed cash. 360Buy launched its IPO process last fall, only to see the offering fall victim to abysmal market sentiment due to a series of accounting scandals at US-listed Chinese companies. This new travel services initiative looks like fantasy to me, and an initiative that’s 95 percent likely to fail. But those kinds of difficult odds never stopped a Chinese company from this kind of initiative before, and I would expect to see a few more strange initiatives coming out of 360Buy before it relaunches its IPO bid, probably sometime in the first half of this year.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s new initiative in the travel services space is almost guaranteed to fail, and could be more designed to generate hype in the run-up to a US IPO later this year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ E-Commerce: 360Buy Awaits IPO Window, Amazon Expands 京东IPO融资心切 亚马逊物流扩张加剧竞争

◙ 360Buy Heats Up E-Books, People’s Daily Goes to Market 京东商城高调进军电子书,人民网开启上市进程

◙ Internet Investors Seek Refuge in Big Names 互联网投资者选择性支持中国市场领头羊

 

 

Search Blocking Wars Expand to Video 搜索屏蔽战蔓延至在线视频业

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The search-blocking wars that gripped the e-commerce sector in the second half of last year have spread to the online video space, where Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) video, the second and third largest operators, have blocked their content from a video search engine operated by top player Youku (NYSE: YOKU). (English article) Of course the biggest loser in this latest blockage battle will be the Chinese consumer, who will find it difficult to find the movies and TV shows he wants to view, which will also hurt the broader industry’s development. Let’s backtrack a moment and look at this latest development in a vibrant but perplexing industry where company behavior more often resembles children fighting in a sandlot than major corporations trying to do business. According to Chinese media reports citing a Tudou representative, Tudou and Sohu video, along with another major video site operator LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104), all decided to block their content from searches by Soku, an online video search engine operated by Yoku. The move comes as Tudou and Youku are embroiled in a series of lawsuits over copyright infringement (previous post), and just as the online video sector has started to sign a series of ground-breaking deals to legally license popular TV shows and movies as they try to wean themselves from the pirated content that was traditionally the main attraction on their sites. Youku announced the latest such deal just yesterday in a new tie-up with Twentieth Century Fox (Nasdaq: NWSA) (company announcement); but this latest spat will surely overshadow that news. In fact, moves like this could ultimately threaten future licensing deals, as this kind of blockage will ultimately make it more difficult for consumers to find the programs they want to watch online, putting a serious damper on the industry’s development. This latest development also comes as Chinese regulators consider restricting the amount of advertising that online video sites can put in their programs, potentially dealing another big blow. (previous post) From a broader perspective, these kind of developments don’t bode well for online video in 2012, and could even delay the money-losing industry’s march to long-term profitability.

Bottom line: A new search blocking war in the online video industry will hamper its development and, along with other negative developments, delay a transition to long-term profitability.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tudou, Youku: China’s New Piracy Police　　土豆和优酷：中国打击盗版的民间警察

◙ 2011: A Breakthrough Year in Copyright Protection 2011年：中国版权保护取得突破的一年

◙ Search Wars Heat Up With Latest Anti-Baidu Moves 中国网络搜索战升温

2011: A Breakthrough Year in Copyright Protection 2011年：中国版权保护取得突破的一年

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It seems quite appropriate that 2011 is ending with news that Internet search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which for years symbolized rampant disregard for copyrights on China’s unruly Internet, has been removed from a US list of “notorious markets” for piracy, capping a year that saw great progress in intellectual property protection. (English article) Baidu’s achievement after it signed a series of landmark licensing agreements with major music labels like Universal, Warner (NYSE: WMG) and Sony Music (Tokyo: 6758) in July as it launched a service selling legal copies of their music. (previous post) Baidu’s removal from the list was just the latest major advance in copyright protection, as China’s crowded field of online music and video sites all took new steps to secure exclusive content to set themselves apart from rivals in the competitive sector. The nation’s top 3 video sharing sites, Youku (NYSE: YOKU), Sohu video (Nasdaq: SOHU) and Tudou (NYSE: TUDO) all signed their first big licensing deals during the year to offer TV shows and films from the likes of Warner Brothers (NYSE: TWX) and Disney (NYSE: DIS). (previous post) Some domestic names like Huayi Brothers (Shenzhen: 300027) signed similar deals, as early signs emerged of a coming renaissance for domestic content makers, an increasing number of which are looking to domestic IPOs to fuel their growth. (previous post) In another interesting development just last week, Youku and Tudou filed a series of copyright infringement lawsuits against each other, showing that these companies themselves could emerge as a potent force to help police against future copyright violations. (previous post) Last but not least, many of the sites themselves are increasingly producing their own exclusive content, with Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) and PPLive announcing such initiatives during the year, which should also help the programming industry’s development. (previous post) Of course, there is still much work to be done. Despite its launch of a legal music service, Baidu continues to operate its popular older music service where swapping of pirated songs is rampant. And while Baidu was removed from the “notorious” list, Alibaba’s Taobao, China’s e-commerce leader, remains on the list for the widespread sale of knock-off products on its site. Still, in all my years covering China tech and media, 2011 certainly looks like a year of major breakthroughs in copyright protection as Chinese firms finally wake up to the reality that piracy isn’t a very good long-term business model.

Bottom line: Baidu’s removal from a US piracy list reflects big progress in the anti-piracy battle in China in 2011, with the campaign likely to maintain momentum into 2012.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ After Years, Baidu Does the Right Thing 百度多年来的一个正确之举

◙ Video Makers On Cusp of Renaissance 视频制作商或迎来美好时代

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

Alibaba Scrambles to Prove High Valuation 阿里巴巴高估值或将作茧自缚

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E-commerce leader Alibaba, scrambling to find financing to buy back a 40 percent stake in itself held by Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), is in a sudden scramble to tell the world why it’s worth $32 billion — a number it helped to float into the market back in September and one which, in my view, seems ridiculously high. In separate news bits from the last day or so, media are reporting the company’s Etao e-commerce search engine has launched a historical pricing search feature (English article), while its popular Taobao consumer-oriented sites have launched social networking functions. (English article) First Etao, which Alibaba hopes to build up as an e-commerce search specialist to one day take on industry titan Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). This historical price search function seems like a good idea, as it would make it easier for cost-conscious consumers to track previous prices for items they want to buy. The only problem is that historical prices could soon be the only thing that Etao can show, as several major online retailers, including 360Buy and Dangdang (NYSE: DANG), have blocked their items from being indexed in Etao search results. (previous post) Meantime, the social networking functions being built into Taobao seem like a direct attempt to take on existing SNS sites like Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo. While this strategy of building on its industry-leading C2C and B2C platforms to build up SNS sounds interesting, the two areas are relatively unrelated and few if any Chinese web firms have successfully executed similar strategies despite many efforts to leverage popular existing services to build up a new, unrelated ones. This flurry of initiatives seems designed, at least in part, to show the world why Alibaba thinks it may be worth $32 billion. Its only listed unit, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) has a market cap of about $5 billion. That means that its other big assets, which mostly consist of a very successful Taobao Mall and more modestly successful Etao and its Alipay e-payment service, would have to be worth $27 billion collectively, which seems unlikely. Ironically, Alibaba’s high estimation of its own value could ultimately come back to hurt it, as Yahoo apparently seems to want to sell its 40 percent of Alibaba based on that overinflated value. The true amount will come out when a sale finally occurs, but I suspect the final valuation will be closer to $20 billion.

Bottom line: Alibaba is trying to convince the market it is worth $32 billion, but a sale of 40 percent of the company held by Yahoo will probably show a much lower valuation.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Alibaba Tests Waters for Yahoo Buyout – Again 阿里巴巴再试水竞购雅虎股权

◙ Alibaba’s Incredible Shrinking Profit Growth 阿里巴巴盈利呈加速放缓趋势

◙ Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

 

Alibaba’s Etao Faces New Merchant Revolt

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E-commerce leader Alibaba Group looks set to soon get its long-awaited wish for separation from major stakeholder Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), but it won’t have much time to celebrate as new fires seem to be popping up everywhere for nearly all of its major businesses. The latest crisis for the increasingly embattled company has cropped up at its Etao search site, which Alibaba is trying to build up as a specialist in e-commerce searches that can eventually rival online search titan Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU). Chinese media are reporting that Etao has confirmed that it is no longer indexing search information from sites for a number of major online retailers, including general merchandiser Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) and electronics giant Suning (Shenzhen: 002024) (Chinese article). The confirmation comes just a week after another leading e-commerce site, 360Buy, hinted it may block its pages from Etao searches (previous post), and indeed 360Buy was among the new list of confirmed companies whose pages will no longer be indexed by Etao. With all these major online retailers blocking their material from Etao searches, and the list likely to grow, Alibaba must certainly be worried about the future viability of Etao as a true e-commerce search engine. This latest crisis follows an uprising earlier this month by independent merchants on Alibaba’s B2C platform, Taobao Mall, after the site sharply hiked its fees. That same group of merchants, which has been wreaking havoc on the Taobao Mall site, later moved its rabble-rousing campaign to Alibaba’s electronic payments site, Alipay, as well. (previous post) While all of these crises rage, Alibaba got a rare piece of good news as domestic media reported that Yahoo is looking to sell its 40 percent stake in Alibaba, as the US web giant tries to dispell broader talk that the entire company itself is for sale. Alibaba has long clamored for Yahoo to sell the stake amid friction between the two companies, so clearly it should be happy about this news. But with all the crises now happening in its own businesses, Alibaba won’t have much time to celebrate and indeed might wish it had an ally to help it in this time of trouble.

Bottom line: Alibaba may soon get its official independence from major stakeholder Yahoo, but it won’t have time to celebrate as it faces an escalating crisis at its Etao search site.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Albaba Faces New Assaults From Merchants, 360Buy 阿里巴巴受到中小商户和京东商城的双重夹攻

◙ Taobao Mall’s IPO March Collides With Merchant Uprising 淘宝商城IPO或因商户“起义”被推迟

◙ Alibaba Sharpens Focus in Yahoo Buy-Out, Taobao Mall 阿里巴巴回购雅虎所持股权有望

News Digest: October 14, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on October 14. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ 55tuan Closes Some Offices Overnight, Many Coupons Become Worthless (Chinese article)

◙ Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) Launches E-Commerce Directory Site (English article)

◙ Agilent (NYSE: A), Datang Establish TD-LTE Joint Development Lab (Businesswire)

◙ India Frees State Firms to Compete With China for Mines Abroad (English article)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) to Report Q3 Financial Results on October 27 (PRNewswire)

Alibaba.com Blows Smoke With HiChina Spin-Off Plan 阿里巴巴网络分拆万网放烟幕弹

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Alibaba.com’s (HKEx: 1688) new announcement that it may spin off HiChina, its Internet infrastructure service provider that it acquired just 2 years ago, has all the signs of valuation envy from an industry leader that feels unappreciated by investors. (English article) That’s the only reason I can give for the strange timing of this announcement, coming at the height of one of the worst IPO markets in the last 2 years and at a time when US-listed China companies are particularly out of favor. Let’s look at the numbers: Alibaba.com, easily China’s biggest B2B e-commerce site, purchased HiChina in 2009 for a price that gave it a valuation at that time of around $100 million. Now, an unnamed source being quoted by the Wall Street Journal is saying the IPO could value the company at up to $500 million, or 5 times what Alibaba.com paid for it. I’m sure Alibaba has brought some synergies to the company since the purchase and also invested more money in it, but a 400 percent increase in value in just 2 years seems a bit too rich to me. More likely, Alibaba.com is feeling underappreciated by investors, who have dumped its shares in recent months causing it to lose nearly half its value since July, with a current market cap of around $4 billion. That’s easily the lowest market cap for any category leader in China’s Internet space. Leading web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has a current market cap of $5.4 billion, while Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700), the leading search engine and online game operator, boast sky-high valuations of $43 billion and $37 billion, respectively. Alibaba.com’s parent company, Alibaba Group, is also no doubt feeling some pressure to show stronger valuations from its units after investors purchased a stake in the parent company last week that valued it at a whopping $32 billion. (previous post) Considering that Alibaba.com is probably the parent group’s most valuable asset and worth just $4 billion, I’m not sure where the other $28 billion of that sky-high valuation is coming from. All that said, this HiChina spin-off plan looks like mostly a distraction to divert attention away from Alibaba’s industry-lagging valuations.

Bottom line: Alibaba.com’s plan to spin off its HiChina infrastructure services unit is a ploy to generate excitement to boost its own industry-trailing valuation.

阿里巴巴网络有限公司（Alibaba.com）(1688.HK)日前发布公告称，公司拟分拆两年前收购的互联网基础设施服务提供商万网（HiChina），後者将赴美上市，其估值颇令人眼红。这是我能想到此时发布公告的唯一原因。目前是两年来首次公开募股（IPO）市场最糟时刻之一，赴美上市的中国企业尤其不受投资者青睐。让我们来看看相关数据。Alibaba.com是中国最大的B2B电子商务网站，2009年以5.4亿元收购万网股权。《华尔街日报》援引一名消息人士的说法称，万网上市时的市值或高达5亿美元，是阿里巴巴网络收购价的五倍。我相信，收购万网後，阿里巴巴为其带来了一些协同效应，也对其投入了更多资金，但仅两年价值就增长4倍，我认为，这样的涨幅有点过高。更可能的情况是，阿里巴巴网络觉得不被投资者看好。投资者近几个月抛售其股票，致使该公司市值自7月来缩水近一半，目前约为40亿美元。在中国互联网领域，对于一个领军企业来说，这样的市值非常低。门户网站新浪(SINA.O)目前市值为54亿美元，百度(BIDU.O)及腾讯(0700.HK)的市值分别为430亿美元和370亿美元。阿里巴巴网络母公司–阿里巴巴集团也面临压力。多家投资机构上周投资阿里巴巴集团，促使其市值高达320亿美元。考虑到阿里巴巴网络可能是该集团最有价值的资产，但其市值仅为40亿美元，我不知道阿里巴巴集团高得离谱的市值从何而来。总而言之，分拆万网的计划看似多半是为了转移投资者对阿里巴巴网络估值的关注。

一句话：阿里巴巴网络有限公司计划分拆万网，目的是为了提升公司落後于行业的估值。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

◙ Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

◙ Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

Wal-Mart Finds Bargain in China’s Internet Bubble

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Yihaodian, the online merchant that made headlines earlier this year when it got an investment from global retail giant Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) (previous post) looks like the latest company to show signs of distress in China’s growing Internet bubble, following a report that gives it a surprisingly low valuation. According to the report, which cites an unnamed industry source, Wal-Mart, which bought an unspecified stake in the online retailer earlier this year, recently bought another 20 percent for a relatively modest $65 million. (English article) Some simple math will show this puts Yihaodian’s value at about $325 million if the report is correct. The same report cites Yihaodian’s chairman saying reports that Wal-Mart will take over the company are incorrect and that the size of the stake purchase is incorrect as well. But even if the numbers are slightly off, this market valuation for what is presumably an up-and-coming online retailer looks tiny compared to numbers being mentioned for other e-commerce firms, most notably an estimated $10 billion valuation given earlier this year by investors in 360Buy, China’s second biggest online merchant which is now hiring an investment bank for an IPO to raise up to $5 billion. (previous post) I realize that Yihaodian is much smaller than both 360Buy as well as leading online retailer Taobao Mall, owned by Alibaba Group. Still, this $325 million valuation looks like a real bargain for Wal-Mart, and no doubt represents an attempt by the worried seller of the stake, in this case Yihaodian’s controlling shareholder Ping An Insurance (HKEx: 2318; Shenzhen: 601318), to get back some of its investment before China’s Internet bubble bursts. As the Internet bubble swells and starts to pop, look for more of these sales at bargain prices as investors try to recoup some of their investments before it’s too late.

Bottom line: Wal-Mart’s purchase of 20 percent of online retailer Yihaodian for a bargain price will be followed by similar sales, as investors try to recoup their money before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

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Just two days after Carol Bartz’s high-profile departure from Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the inevitable first reports are already emerging that the US search giant is in talks to sell its troublesome 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group. (English article) I’m guessing this report, which cites an unnamed source, is probably very preliminary, as any such talks wouldn’t have started until after Bartz’s firing on Wednesday. What’s more, Yahoo’s acting CEO is just filling the position on an interim basis, meaning he would be highly unlikely to make such a major decision until a new permanent CEO arrives. But such a sale will inevitably be discussed, and I just want to take this opportunity to say that this is exactly NOT the time to consider such a move. I agree that the Alibaba stake was a major distraction for Bartz during her stormy tenure, and that I said once or twice that the company should try to sell it to focus on its own turnaround story. But the fact is, Alibaba and Yahoo could potentially really help each other, which is the main reason the former sold 40 percent of itself to the latter in 2006 when Yahoo was headed by Jerry Yang, good friend of Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma. If Yahoo’s new CEO can build a good working relationship with Ma, there are many places this pair could benefit each other. Yahoo has a solid global network in search and e-commerce that could both greatly benefit the global aspirations of Alibaba’s two e-commerce sites, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) and Taobao. From Yahoo’s perspective, it could leverage Alibaba’s position as China’s top e-commerce company to make another play for the China search market, especially after Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) high profile departure last year that left Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) with a near monopoly that is clearly making Beijing uncomfortable. Of course we’ll need to see who Yahoo picks as its new CEO, but if it’s smart it will bring Jack Ma into the process to hopefully find someone who can take advantage of this troubled but potentially lucrative relationship.

Bottom line: Yahoo would be well advised to delay considering a sale of its Alibaba stake, and should instead focus on finding a new CEO who can work well with the Chinese company.

仅在雅虎(YHOO.O)解雇首席执行官（CEO）巴茨（Carol Bartz）两天之後，已经有报导称雅虎正在商谈出售所持有的阿里巴巴公司40%股权。我猜这篇援引未具名人士的报导内容可能非常不成熟，这种重要的谈判在巴茨周三被解雇之前并不会开始。此外，雅虎的代理CEO只是临时应急，也就是说在新CEO到任前，他绝无可能作出这个重要决定。然而，商讨出售阿里巴巴股权将无可避免，我也想借这个机会说，现在绝不是考虑采取行动的好时机。我也认为阿里巴巴股权问题是巴茨在任期间让她主要困扰的问题。我曾说过一两次，雅虎应该尝试出售持有的阿里巴巴股权，聚焦于改善自身经营业绩状况。但是，阿里巴巴和雅虎事实上存在真正相互支持的可能性，这也是前者在2006年将40%股权售予雅虎的主要原因。当时雅虎的CEO是杨致远，也是阿里巴巴董事局主席马云的好朋友。如果雅虎的新任CEO能够与马云建立良好的工作关系，两家公司在很多方面可以实现互惠互利。雅虎拥有稳固的全球搜索和电子商务网络，可以极大惠及阿里巴巴旗下两家电子网站--阿里巴巴和淘宝的全球发展目标。从雅虎的角度来看，可以利用阿里巴巴在中国电子商务领域的龙头地位，在中国搜索市场再做文章。尤其是在谷歌去年高调离开之後，百度获得了接近垄断的行业地位，这明显让中国政府感到不安。当然，我们需要看看雅虎挑选谁来担任CEO，但是雅虎如果足够聪明的话，将请马云参与到寻找合适人选的过程中，处理好目前陷入困难但仍有希望改善的双方关系。

一句话：雅虎应该延後考虑出售所持阿里巴巴的股权，聚焦于加快寻找能够与阿里巴巴睦邻互惠的新任CEO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

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I have just one word to describe the news that leading Chinese online merchant 360Buy will try to raise up to $5 billion in the largest-ever Internet IPO for a Chinese company in the US: desperation. (English article; Chinese article) But I have to at least give this company credit for trying to get to market before a looming Chinese Internet bubble bursts, which could rapidly wipe out billions of dollars that investors have pumped into 360Buy, which officially calls itself Jingdong Mall. This is the company that surprised the world in April when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion — a record for a Chinese Internet company — from an investor group that included Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies, better known for its investment in Facebook. (previous post) Digital Sky’s chief later tried to justify the size of the investment, estimating that 360Buy could have a market cap of $10 billion — more than double that of most to Chinese Internet firms and trailing only top players Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post) Never mind the fact that 360Buy was losing money, which will become quite clear to everyone when if and when it files its IPO prospectus. Lots has happened since that landmark investment five months agol. Most notably, competition in the e-commerce space has heated up considerably with the influx of billions of dollars in new investment. Money-losing online promotions offering goods at ridiculously low prices appear almost daily, and early signs of distress have begun to appear with big names like group buying site Gaopeng and clothing retailer Vancl laying off staff (previous post). 360Buy showed its own signs of distress last month when it abruptly severed relations with e-payments provider AliPay in a move to cut costs. (previous post) I suspect Digital Sky and the other investors from that $1.5 billion funding round are starting to panic, and are now in a race against time to get back some of their investment before China’s bursting Internet bubble is impossible to ignore. If I were a gambler, I would say this offering will raise $1 billion at the most, and quite probably less, if it even makes it to market. The way things are rapidly developing, the company will be lucky to get a valuation of $5 billion.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s sudden rush to raise up to $5 billion in a US IPO is a sign of desperation, as investors look for quick returns before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

看到京东商城要去美国上市筹资50亿美元的消息，我只想用一个词来描述我的看法：绝望。京东商城是中国最大的购物网站，这个上市计划一旦成功将创下中国互联网公司赴美上市筹资额的历史之最。不过，对京东在中国互联网行业泡沫行将破裂前，尝试借助资本市场的努力，我还是至少要给予褒奖。中国互联网泡沫的破裂可能导致投资者对京东商城倾情投入的数十亿美元迅速灰飞烟灭。今年4月，京东商城从包括俄罗斯风投公司数字天空技术（Digital Sky Technologies）的投资者财团成功筹集到15亿美元资金，创下中国互联网公司对外定向筹资的纪录。这让外界倍感意外。数字天空技术更出名的行动当属投资Facebook，该公司後来试图为其投资规模找出理由，称京东商城的估值可能高达100亿美元，较大多数其他中国互联网公司的市值高出一倍有余，仅次于百度和腾讯等龙头企业。不要介意京东商城正在亏损，这一事实在这家公司发布上市招股书的时候将大白天下。在五个月前获得标志性巨额投资之後发生了很多事情。最值得关注的是，随着数十亿美元投资的流入，电子商务行业竞争显着升级。几乎每天都能看到提供荒唐低价商品的赔钱促销活动，随着团购网站高朋和服装零售网站凡客的裁员，电子商务行业已经初露危机迹象。上月，京东商城以降低成本的名义突然弃用支付宝，正是前者面临危机的迹象。我猜测，稍早提供15亿美元融资的数字天空技术公司等投资者已经感到痛楚，在不敢无视中国互联网泡沫行将破裂的情况下，正争分夺秒争取上市，以抢先回收部分投资。如果我是一名赌家，我会押注京东商城若决定上市，最多筹得10亿美元，并很可能更少。世事变幻莫测，京东商城若能筹得50亿美元，则需要运气。

一句话：京东商城突然宣布计划赴美上市筹资50亿美元，释放出绝望的信号，机构投资者期待抢在中国互联网泡沫破裂前赶快回收投资。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？

360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

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Perhaps I’m becoming a bit biased due to my belief that China is in the midst of an Internet bubble, but the latest word from online retailing giant 360Buy that it is cutting off Alibaba’s Alipay online payments service to me looks like the latest sign of a swollen China Internet sector under growing duress. As many will recall, 360Buy made headlines earlier this year when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion in new funding, a record for a private Chinese Internet company and just one of a large number of fundings of $100 million or more as both domestic and foreign investors piled onto the China Internet bandwagon. (previous post) One of the 360Buy investors, Russia’s Digital Sky Media, justified the massive investment by saying the company could be worth a staggering $10 billion — about triple the value of most of China’s biggest Internet firms excluding titans Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). So I find it a little surprising that 360Buy CEO Liu Qiangdong is citing Alipay’s annual costs of about 5-6 million yuan, or less than $1 million, as the reason behind is company’s decision to cut off the service. (Chinese article) I’m certainly not in favor of needlessly wasting money, but for a company that just raised $1.5 billion to say an annual expense of $1 million is too high, especially in a high-growth area like e-payments, sounds to me like 360Buy is coming under increasing pressure to slash costs as its new impatient investors push it to become profitable — something that may not happen soon due to fierce competition in China’s e-commerce market. This latest move by 360Buy, combined with recent massive layoffs by Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent, (previous post) are just the latest signs of China’s growing Internet bubble, which could start to burst in dramatic fashion in the next 6 months.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s termination of its agreement to offer Alipay e-payment services is the latest sign of a building Internet bubble in China.

也许我是有点偏见，我认为中国互联网正出现泡沫。不过从京东商城近日宣布停用支付宝来看，似乎确实印证中国互联网产业面临更大压力。许多人应该都还记得，京东商城今年早些时候获得海外15亿美元融资，京东商城投资方之一–俄罗斯投资公司DST当时大谈此宗投资的合理性，称京东商城价值高达100亿美元。因此现在京东CEO刘强东以“费率高”为由，宣布停止与支付宝合作，让我有点意外，毕竟京东每年付给支付宝的费用也就是500-600万元人民币，还不足100万美元。我当然不是主张不必要的浪费，但作为刚融资15亿美元的京东商城，说每年100万美元的电子支付费用太高，让人感觉似乎京东商城在降低成本方面压力加大，因为投资方要求其实现盈利，而这在眼下中国竞争激烈的电子商务市场来说很难。京东商城此举，加之高朋网裁员，都是中国互联网呈现泡沫的迹象，也许未来六个月中我们会看到泡沫开始戏剧性破灭。

一句话：京东商城停用支付宝，是中国互联网产业出现泡沫的最新迹象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？