China’s overheated auto market has just posted another miserable month, with May car sales edging up just 0.3 percent while a broader measure that includes cars, sport utility and multi-purpose vehicles fell 6.1 percent, according to the latest industry figures. (English article) The association that compiles the data is sticking to its previous gloomy forecast, first issued last month, that sales could actually fall for the year after notching red-hot growth in 2009 and more solid gains last year fueled by incentives from Beijing. In a bid to moderate the downslide, Beijing has just announced a new round of incentives that clearly have a rural flavor, perhaps as part of China’s efforts to spread more wealth to its smaller cities and towns. Under that plan, owners of farm vehicles, buses and heavy trucks can all trade in their clunkers for up to $2,800 in subsidies toward the purchase of a new vehicle. (English article) The head of the auto association that compiles the monthly sales figures was clearly not impressed by the latest plan to bring some momentum back to the industry, saying vehicle owners could make more by selling their clunkers on the secondary market. I would agree that this program won’t bring the industry roaring back to its previous growth days. But considering the growing importance of owning a car to one’s social stature, combined with the fact that I see little or no secondary market for the kinds of clunkers this program is targeting, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight rebound in car sales by the end of the year as rural folk look to hop aboard China’s latest car craze bandwagon. In the end, that should benefit the cheaper homegrown brands like Geely (HKEx: 175), BAIC and Chery.
Bottom line: China’s auto industry will remain sluggish for at least the next year, but a new incentive program aimed at rural buyers could give the market a surprise bounce by year end.
Bottom line: Didi’s foray into takeout delivery and Meituan’s into private car services look like moves of desperation to make the companies more attractive as they get pressured to make IPOs by the end of next year.
Meituan eyes car services
Two of China’s biggest unlisted internet companies are in the headlines as the week winds down, each taking a shot at the other’s turf. One headline has the Uber-like Didi Chuxing hiring in preparation to launch a takeout dining service like the one operated by Meituan-Dianping. The other has Meituan-Dianping preparing to roll out its own private car services in seven Chinese cities, taking a direct shot at Didi.
The timing of these two news bits is probably coincidental, since I doubt they share information on their strategic planning. What’s more, the Meituan move into car services is just an extension of previous earlier news. From a bigger perspective, both items smack just slightly of desperation as these two companies look for growth in the face of stagnating core businesses. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei’s eroding profit margins and slowing smartphone sales growth reflect stresses being felt both at home and abroad in an overheated industry showing rapid signs of global saturation.
Huawei announces H1 results
The latest financial results from Huawei are showing how smartphones are at once becoming a growth engine but also a drag on the telecoms giant. The company’s fast-growing smartphone business was one of the main engines behind a 40 percent surge in sales during the first half of this year, as Huawei consolidated its position as the world’s third largest brand behind only Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL). But at the same time, fierce competition in the sector also sharply eroded Huawei’s profit margins. Read Full Post…
This week’s Street View takes us to Shanghai’s cyber realm, where I feel compelled to write about a recent trend that has seen an explosion in chat groups on the hugely popular WeChat mobile messaging platform. I write occasionally about cyberspace in this column, usually focusing on apps that make life easier for Shanghai residents for things like hailing taxis and locating nearby public toilets.
But the chat group phenomenon is slightly different, as it doesn’t have any real-world applications and is solely designed to facilitate better communication among groups of friends, acquaintances, colleagues, family members, or simply people with a common interest. Such groups really are quite useful in some cases, for example by helping people to plan an outing or for students to pass on messages about their latest class assignments. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: LeEco will try to buy out Coolpad later this year in its new position as the company’s largest stakeholder, while its plans for a massive Silicon Valley campus stand a less than 50 percent chance of getting completed.
LeEco boosts Coolpad stake
The phenomenal but problematic entertainment superstar LeEco (Shenzhen: 300104) is in a couple of big headlines as the new week begins, led by word that a new transaction has made it the largest stakeholder in struggling smartphone maker Coolpad (HKEx: 2369). Rumors were flying thick and fast last week that LeEco, formerly known as LeTV, was on the cusp of an outright takeover of Coolpad, and this latest move certainly looks like a possible prelude to such an bid. Meantime, separate media reports are confirming news from earlier this year saying LeEco has purchased a piece of prime Silicon Valley land that it hopes to develop as a campus for its future US headquarters.Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Reports of the insolvency of online grocer Yummy77 are probably correct, but the company could still engineer an emergency rescue that would see it emerge as a wholly owned subsidiary of a big backer like Amazon.
Yummy77 reportedly insolvent
Just a week after 2 major new fundings highlighted the big potential for online grocers, a new headline is shining a spotlight on the darker side of a market that has rapidly overheated as new companies rush to cash in on the trend. That headline has media reporting that 2-year-old online grocer Yummy77, which is backed by global e-commerce giant Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), has run out of cash and become insolvent, making it the first major casualty in the space.
Before we go any further, I should note that the news on Yummy77 is all coming from media reports that haven’t been confirmed by the company. But at least one of those reports comes from the highly reputable China Business Network (CBN), which cites a number of sources that seem to indicate the news is true. My own visit to Yummy77’s site, www.yummy77.com, showed no signs of anything unusual, and I was able to select items for sale and put them into my shopping cart as normal. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Marriott stands a 60-40 chance of having its bid for Starwood approved at an April 8 shareholder vote, since a competing Anbang proposal could face the strong possibility of rejection by China’s insurance regulator.
Anbang confident of Beijing will approve Starwood bid
A series of new reports and data on Chinese insurer Anbang are showing why the company is confident it can get regulatory approval from Beijing in its heated bidding war for Starwood (NYSE: HOT), operator of the Sheraton and Westin hotel brands. I also expect that the US regulator would have little or no reason to veto such a deal on national security grounds, since Starwood really doesn’t handle any sensitive information as hotel operator.
Thus from a regulatory perspective, if the latest Chinese reports are correct, it does look like Anbang would be able to get the necessary regulatory approval from both Washington and Beijing to buy Starwood for $14 billion in its ongoing bidding war with Marriott (NYSE: MAR). But the reports coming from China are quite contradictory, reflecting a potential looming clash between Anbang and China’s conservative insurance regulator. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Coolpad’s shares are likely to come under pressure for the rest of 2016 due to stiff competition in China’s smartphone market, and it could be forced to raise more money last this year following its newly-announced rights issue plan.
Coolpad taps stakeholders for more funds
It seems like $700 million and 2 major new alliances weren’t enough to prop up financially challenged smartphone maker Coolpad (HKEx: 2369), which has just announced a new share rights offer to raise up to HK$736 million ($95 million). The deal marks the latest distress signal coming from China’s overheated smartphone sector, which has seen Coolpad and a vibrant field of other domestic brands engage in a fierce game of price wars over the last 2 years.
What’s somewhat revealing about this new capital raising plan is its relatively paltry size, and also the large discount that Coolpad had to offer to sell the new shares. Even worse, one of the main buyers of the new shares is Chinese online video giant LeTV (Shenzhen: 300104), which should have been willing to pay closer to market levels for the new shares after becoming one of Coolpad’s largest stakeholders last year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Starbucks and Uber are likely to scale back their latest aggressive China expansion plans as the nation’s economy slows and consumers rein in their spending on non-essential items and services.
Starbucks accelerates China expansion
China’s economy may be heading for a new era of slower growth, but you would never know that by looking at the latest moves by Uber and Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX), 2 global leaders in their categories of hired car services and retailing. The first instance has Uber completing a major fund-raising for its China unit and forming a new tie-up in travel services. Meantime, Starbucks is steaming ahead with plans to nearly double its China store count by 2019.
As a neutral observer of both companies, I have to say that both Starbucks and Uber are being just slightly naive in ignoring all the signs of a major Chinese economic slowdown that could ultimately lead to woes now confronting countries like Greece and Spain. In that kind of environment, it’s far from clear that consumers will still enthusiastically shell out $5 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks when they could buy a cup of tea for far less, or that they will pay similar amounts for a hired car instead of taking the bus or subway. Read Full Post…
It’s official: the fast-rising Huawei has formally passed the 100 million mark for smartphone sales this year, cementing its place as the world’s undisputed third largest player behind only Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). In a relatively unusual move for this low-profile company, Huawei is also trumpeting the milestone in a formal press release and forecasting more strong growth for next year.
Huawei has been China’s biggest success story to date in the young smartphone space, gaining rapid momentum over a crowded field of domestic rivals that includes Lenovo (HKEx: 992), ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and smaller names like Alibaba-backed Meizu. But the company should also carefully watch the case of the stumbling Xiaomi, which was being called a homegrown Chinese version of Apple before it began its recent rapid fall from grace. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: OnePlus and Smartisan are 2 brands that could be most at risk for closure or acquisition in a looming smartphone shakeup that will intensify next year and claim at least 2-3 mid-sized and smaller players.
Less than 2 weeks after he talked about a looming shakeup in China’s overheated smartphone sector, OnePlus co-founder Carl Pei is having to explain layoffs at his company, and also fend off rumors of a takeover bid. At the same time, more signs of Pei’s predicted shakeup are coming from Smartisan, another newer smartphone play, whose manufacturing partner for its new model has reportedly gone bankrupt.
Both OnePlus and Smartisan fit the profile of the kind of company that Pei said would be most at risk in the coming shakeup. Each is relatively young, and both are pure smartphone plays without any other operating history. That means they have few other resources to fall back on as their profits evaporate in the unending price wars gripping China’s smartphone market. Read Full Post…
association that compiles the monthly sales figures was clearly not impressed by the latest plan to bring some momentum back to the industry, saying vehicle owners could make more by selling their clunkers on the secondary market. I would agree that this program won’t bring the industry roaring back to its previous growth days. But considering the growing importance of owning a car to one’s social stature, combined with the fact that I see little or no secondary market for the kinds of clunkers this program is targeting, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a slight rebound in car sales by the end of the year as rural folk look to hop aboard China’s latest car craze bandwagon. In the end, that should benefit the cheaper homegrown brands like Geely (HKEx: 175), BAIC and Chery.
