Bottom line: Many of Alibaba’s older stakeholders are likely to sell some or all of their shares after their lock-up period ends, driving the stock down to or even below its IPO level over the coming months.
Alibaba lock-up period ends
Top managers at China’s Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) are almost certainly watching their company’s stock with acute angst this week, even as business continues as usual with word of the e-commerce leader’s latest overseas expansion into Korea. The angst is the direct result of an end to the lock-up period for Alibaba’s stock, which could technically flood the market with up to 340 million shares that were forbidden from trading for the first 6 months after its record-breaking $25 billion IPO.
Put differently, all of those shares would be worth about $29 billion at Alibaba’s current price, accounting for more than one-tenth of its total market capitalization of about $210 billion. The shares officially become eligible for trading when the lock-up period ends on Wednesday, March 18, which is exactly 6 months after the shares made their trading debut on the New York Stock Exchange. (Chinese article) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s 2 latest big investments in Snapchat and Snapdeal look like good bets for strong financial returns, but are unlikely to produce any major strategic benefit.
Alibaba in talks for Snapdeal stake
I was a bit confused on my first reading of the headlines today, after seeing articles saying e-commerce leader Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) was in talks to invest in 2 companies whose “snappy” names sounded quite similar. But a closer reading made it clear that these were 2 very different deals, one involving the popular US social networking service (SNS) Snapchat, and the other involving a popular Indian e-commerce site called Snapdeal.
Despite their big geographic and product differences, these 2 deals seem to represent a growing trend for Alibaba, which is no longer acquiring companies but instead only buying small strategic stakes. The strategy looks mostly advantageous to the investment targets. That’s because it’s helping to push up the valuations of names like Snapchat and Snapdeal to frothy levels, much the way Alibaba used similar investments to pump up its own valuation in the run-up to its IPO last year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Meizu’s rapid India expansion could provide it with some relief from the overheated China market over the short-term, but will result in new price wars over the next 2-3 years as its domestic rivals make similar moves.
Meizu eyes India
Freshly infused with nearly $600 million in new capital after a major investment from e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), smartphone maker Meizu is getting set to take on higher profile rival Xiaomi outside China with a major new campaign in India. In many ways, this particular move looks like China’s way of exporting the rampant price wars that have plagued its smartphone market to other countries with similar demographics. In this case, Meizu is not only eying a country that has suddenly become Xiaomi’s second largest market, but is also planning to follow its rival into Southeast Asia. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The huge success of Tencent’s hongbao promotions over the Lunar New Year reflects the growing dominance of WeChat, which could marginalize other mobile services unless regulators step in to create a more level playing field.
WeChat clobbers Alibaba in red envelope promotions
I remember a time not long ago when we China tech reporters used to write annual stories about the number of people who sent billions of simple Lunar New Year text greetings over their mobile phones. Those days now seem like a distant memory, and new data from Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) WeChat and Alibaba’s (NYSE: BABA) Alipay are showing just how small those earlier figures were, even though they seemed impressive at the time.
But the real story in this new tide of “red envelope grabbing wars”, known as qiang hongbao in Chinese, is the huge victory for Tencent over Alibaba, which I’ll describe shortly. That victory owes directly to the huge popularity of WeChat, which saw many of its hundreds of millions of users glued to their smartphones for much of the Lunar New Year while they ignored everything else. Instead of the usual New Year activities, they spent much of the holiday trying to “grab” millions of yuan in gift money being doled out over WeChat by their friends, bosses and also by Tencent and Alibaba themselves. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Alibaba’s Meizu investment is likely to spark a round of similar buying by major Chinese Internet firms, but could jeopardize Meizu’s access to the latest Android technology from Google.
Alibaba invests in Meizu
E-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is finally making a smart acquisition to revive its flailing smartphone initiative, with word that it’s investing a hefty amount in the well-respected second-tier player Meizu. This particular investment comes just 2 months after another similar deal that saw security software specialist Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) form another tie-up with smartphone maker Coolpad (HKEx: 2369), and could auger a new wave of similar investments by Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Tencent (HKEx: 700) and perhaps one or two other cash-rich Internet companies.
The news could provide some new breathing room for companies like Meizu and Coolpad, since they and many of their domestic peers are probably losing big money due to intense competition in China’s overcrowded smartphone space. But this new buying spree could also mean that competition is unlikely to abate anytime soon, since wealthy companies like Alibaba and Qihoo are unlikely to give up easily on their new smartphone initiatives. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Shares of Alibaba could be due for a pull-back as investors become aware of its aggressive spending and shrinking profits, which could benefit the more conservative Tencent and Baidu.
Alibaba wows Wall Street with mediocre results
Everyone is buzzing about the maiden earnings report from newly listed e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), which shows strong revenue growth and rapidly shrinking profits. So rather than repeat everyone else by simply reviewing the numbers, I’ll take this occasion to compare the Alibaba figures with those from leading rivals Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), often called the Internet “big 3” of China and increasingly referred to collectively by the name BAT. Read Full Post…
I don’t usually write about IPOs in China’s domestic A-share market, mostly because most such offerings are for stodgy state-run firms with low growth potential and whose shares aren’t available to most foreigners. But the market is changing as the regulator slowly warms up to more interesting private firms, which is reflected in an upcoming listing plan by entrepreneurial budget carrier Spring Airlines. At the same time, separate reports are shining a spotlight on another potentially exciting domestic IPO that would still be a year or two in the future, with word that e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) has set up Ant Financial, a separate company to officially own its financial service assets. Read Full Post…
China Auto IPO draws on Alibaba fever with strong debut
I’m a bit reluctant to write more today about the historic New York IPO for e-commerce giant Alibaba (NYSE: BABA), whose extremely strong trading debut surprised even me. But I would be somewhat remiss if I didn’t at least mention the final phase of this massive offering, which has made Alibaba the world’s second largest Internet company behind only Google (Nasdaq: GOOG). At the same time, another far more low profile trading debut in Hong Kong for auto rental specialist CAR Inc (HKEx: 699) has also done quite well, extending a nearly yearlong window for overseas listings by Chinese firms. Read Full Post…
The final countdown has just begun for e-commerce giant Alibaba’s highly anticipated New York IPO, allowing us to see just how much the company might be worth, how much money it might raise and whether it might be the biggest US or even global IPO of all time. The final answer to all of those questions will remain a mystery until Alibaba actually prices the deal, but at least we can speculate now what the chances are of it meeting some of the lofty goals that market watchers have set for the company. I’ll start by giving my view that the deal should price relatively strongly, and make some conclusions from that later in this post. Read Full Post…
E-commerce leader Alibaba is supposedly in a quiet period in the run-up to its upcoming multibillion-dollar IPO, but you would never know that based on the steady stream of headlines that keep emerging about the company. In all fairness, many of the IPO-related headlines are probably coming from investment banking sources who are trying to hype the offer that could be the world’s biggest ever by a tech firm. But I suspect many of those reports are probably coming from company sources, including the latest reports that Alibaba is preparing to launch a used car e-commerce platform and move into South Korea. Read Full Post…
It’s been 2 weeks since I’ve written a post exclusively about leading e-commerce company Alibaba, so I thought I’d end the week with a round-up of a few company news bits including its selection of the New York Stock Exchange for its highly-anticipated IPO. In related news, the company’s major shareholder Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO) is reportedly in talks to reduce its planned sale of Alibaba shares in the offering. Last but not least, Alibaba has formally added its name to one of its latest acquisitions, a stake in one of China’s leading soccer clubs. Read Full Post…
