Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

After a few weeks of talk, leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has come out and told the world through a public filing that it now owns 9 percent of Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), in what looks to me like a potential prelude to a future takeover of the newly listed online video site. Sina disclosed that it first acquired a 4.2 percent stake in Tudou for $31.2 million at the time of its listing, and then swooped in a short time later after the company’s shares sank on its debut to boost its holdings to 9 percent for an additional $35.2 million investment. (English article) While Tudou founder and chairman Gary Wang insists the investment is purely financial, it looks to me like Sina is testing the waters for a potential future takeover of the company. Similar takeovers have proven difficult in the past as the founders of such takeover targets are often major stakeholders in their companies, often controlling a majority of shares with the ability to quash any approaches. But in this case, Wang only holds 8.6 percent of Tudou shares, and is clearly under continued pressure to raise cash, as evidenced by his determination to go ahead with this IPO despite negative market sentiment. Many will recall that Sina has a poor record with major M&A, failing to close its purchase of Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) several years ago and also fending off a hostile takeover bid by Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) before that. This Tudou purchase could be a more careful attempt to see how the markets react before making an outright offer for the company. Given the sudden interest in video sharing by nearly every major Internet company, including Tencent (HKEx: 700), which is reportedly in talks for a stake in industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) (previous post), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sina launch a takeover attempt for Tudou by the end of this year, with an aim to turning it into a profitable, well-run online video site.

Bottom line: Sina’s purchase of a 9 percent stake of Tudou looks like a prelude to a future attempt to take over the company, with an offer possible as soon as the end of this year.

经过数周洽谈，中国第一大门户网站新浪(SINA.O)通过一份向监管机构提交的报告对世界宣布，新浪目前已经持有中国第二大在线视频网站——土豆网(TUDO.O)大约9%的股份。我认为此举可能为新浪未来收购土豆网拉开序幕。新浪透露在土豆网上市期间，首先投资3,120万美元购得土豆4.2%股份，土豆上市首秀股价大跌後，又追加投资3,520万美元，持股份额增至9%。虽然土豆创始人兼董事长王微坚称新浪目的仅在投资，但在我看来，新浪应该是在试水，看未来是否有可能收购土豆。以往此类收购通常比较困难，因为收购目标的创始人往往拥有多数股权，可以抵挡可能的收购意向。但在土豆网一例中，王微持股仅占8.6%，而且显然仍有筹资压力，在市场情绪下如此消极仍然继续IPO就是明证。很多人都应该记得新浪在重大并购案例中表现都比较差，比如，多年前并购分众媒体(FMCN.O)的失败之举，在此之前，盛大互动(SNDA.O)还曾企图敌意竞购新浪。新浪此次如有意收购土豆，可能会更加细心谨慎，直接向土豆报价前先看市场如何反应。中国几乎每一家主要互联网企业均突然对视频分享网站感兴趣，其中包括近来传洽谈购优酷股份的腾讯在内。考虑到这层因素，我认为新浪今年年底前有可能发起对土豆网的收购，并努力实现土豆网扭亏为盈，运转良好。

一句话：新浪持有土豆网9%股份看起来是未来收购土豆的序幕，新浪今年年底前可能就开始对土豆展开收购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin