Tag Archives: Baidu

Baidu Company News Baidu 百度, Inc. incorporated on January 2000, is classifed as web services company established by Robin Li and Eric Xu.
Overview of the Chinese high Tech Market by former Chief Editor of Reuters (Doug Young).
Baidu offers many services, including a search engine for websites, audio files and images.

Baidu in Figures
– Ranked 4th overall in the Alexa rankings
– In 2015, Baidu had over 1 billion visits / month
– Baidu offers 57 community services (Chinese encyclopedia, questions/Answers , forums … )

News Digest: October 14, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on October 14. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ 55tuan Closes Some Offices Overnight, Many Coupons Become Worthless (Chinese article)

◙ Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) Launches E-Commerce Directory Site (English article)

◙ Agilent (NYSE: A), Datang Establish TD-LTE Joint Development Lab (Businesswire)

◙ India Frees State Firms to Compete With China for Mines Abroad (English article)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) to Report Q3 Financial Results on October 27 (PRNewswire)

HK Woes Point to Shanghai Sell-Off Next Week 港股跌宕起伏沪深後市堪忧

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China’s struggling stock markets are taking a much-needed weeklong break for the National Day holiday, but weak sentiment has continued unabated in Hong Kong, where the stock market tanked earlier in the week and shares of premier brokerage Citic Securities (HKEx: 6030) stumbled badly in their first trading debut outside China. The Hong Kong board started off the week in free-fall, shedding 7.6 percent on Monday and Tuesday before staging a rally on Thursday. But it was still down 2.4 percent at the start of the Friday trading day, and the volatility clearly reflects investor angst over what will happen when trading resumes in Shanghai and Shenzhen next Monday, with more sell-offs likely. In the midst of the chaos, shares of Citic Securities (Shanghai: 600030), the first in a string of high-profile listings of major state-connected firms aimed at propping up the markets, stumbled out of the gate, losing as much as 10.5 percent from their IPO price on their first trading day before finishing the day unchanged, even as the broader market rallied 5.7 percent. (English article) The weak debut, which came after Citic Securities already scaled back the offering and priced its shares at the low end of their range, bodes poorly for a number of other major state-run firms lining up to go public, including Sany Heavy Industries (Shanghai: 600031), which is also planning a listing in Hong Kong, and China Communications Construction, which is planning a Shanghai listing. (previous post). Meantime, the weakness has led two premier Hong Kong-listed China Internet names, Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1668), to do the once unthinkable and actually buy back their shares (Tencent article; Alibaba article). They join a list of peers that has so far included many mid-sized US-listed China tech firms like Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and Renren (NYSE: RENN) but has yet to see the likes of top names like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) resort to such buy-backs. But if the current sell-off continues, we might even see these big names join the buy-back frenzy, showing just how low sentiment has sunk towards China plays, especially Internet stocks.

Bottom line: China’s stock markets will fall when trading resumes next week, extending sell-offs in Hong Kong and New York while Chinese markets were closed for the October 1 holiday.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Beijing IPO Campaign to Boost Markets Falls Flat 大宗IPO提振中国股市或成泡影

◙ China Offers Up Premier IPOs to Revive Markets 大企业沪港上市 政府借机重燃沪港生机

◙ CITIC Securities $2 Bln IPO Looks Good, With Potential to Jumpstart HK 中信证券香港IPO值得期待

US China Stocks: Bloodbath Becomes Correction 在美上市中资股遭抛售 迈入股价修正新阶段

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The sell-off of US-listed China stocks accelerated on Thursday, with shares of premier names Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) each dropping around 10 percent after US media quoted a securities regulator saying his agency was looking into accounting fraud by US-listed Chinese firms. (English article) But after months of negative news and selling of these stocks, I’m convinced this sell-off is moving into a new phase that marks a long-awaited correction in unrealistic valuations for many of these companies during a massive run-up in their prices over the last few years fueled by China Internet hype. A closer look at the market will show that the Thursday sell-off was hardly broad-based but rather was largely limited to companies with overinflated valuations. Even after a sell-off that has seen its shares drop more than 30 percent in the last 3 of weeks, Sina shares still trade at a ridiculously high price-to-earnings ratio of 115 times earnings for the next 12 months. Baidu shares, which have lost a similar amount over the same period, now trade at a more reasonable but still high PE of 42. By comparison, online travel leader Ctrip (Nasdaq: CTRP) and leading social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) both saw their shares actually gain on Wall Street on Thursday, as each announced a share buyback plan of $100 million and $150 million, respectively. (Ctrip announcement; Renren announcement) Perhaps these buy-back announcements helped to protect Ctrip and Renren’s shares to some extent in yesterday’s sell-off; but more importantly, Ctrip now has a more modest valuation of 30 times earnings for the next 12 months, while Renren’s PE is negative as it’s still losing money. All that said, I think it’s highly unlikely that these bigger, industry leaders are the focus of regulatory investigations, which are mostly reserved for the smaller US-listed China firms without big-name accountants. Instead, this continued sell-off looks like it has turned into a much needed correction for overhyped Chinese stocks, which will continue until their valuations come down to more reasonable levels.

Bottom line: Investors who profited from a run-up in US-listed Chinese stocks over the last few years are seizing on a confidence crisis to pocket their gains.

在美上市中资股周四再遭抛售。美国媒体引述美国证券交易委员会一位官员的话表示，司法部正在调查一些在美国股票交易所挂牌的中资企业财务违规问题。受此影响，百度<BIDU.O>、新浪<SINA.O>等双双大跌约10%。不过，经过数月来的负面消息与相关股票的抛售，我认为中资股抛售正进入新阶段，开始修正过去几年来对这些企业逐渐形成的不现实估值。细看市场表现，你会发现周四中资股并非全面遭遇抛售，主要局限於估值过高企业。过去三周新浪股价虽已大跌超30%，但其未来12个月动态市盈率仍高达115倍。百度股价同期跌幅与新浪几乎相当，目前其市盈率为42倍，相对合理一些，但仍非常高。相比之下，中国国内领先的携程旅行网<CTRP.O>与社交网络人人网<RENN.N>周四实际逆势上扬。两公司均宣布股票回购计划，规模分别为1亿美元与1.5亿，也许回购计划在一定程度上帮助两公司股票在昨天的抛售中免遭一劫。但更重要的是，携程未来12个月动态市盈率为30倍，人人网由於仍在亏损，市盈率为负值。虽然如此，我认为这些行业领头羊不大可能是此次监管调查的焦点，调查重点可能主要集中在所用会计企业不太知名的、在美上市较小中资企业。此次继续抛售看起来正转变为中国概念股的修正，相关企业估值回到合理水平前，股价修正还会继续。

一句话：过去几年中利用在美上市中资股获利的投资者正抓住此次信任危机售股套现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ US-Listed China Firms Fight Back — Finally 中国赴美上市公司最终还击

◙ Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

◙ Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim

 

55tuan Layoff Rumors Mark Latest Group Buying Distress Call 传窝窝团大裁员 团购业前景黯淡

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I’m usually reluctant to report on rumors, but a posting on Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo late yesterday that group buying giant 55tuan was launching massive layoffs seemed too big to ignore, reflecting troubles at both the company and in the money-losing group buying space. Sina itself followed up on the Weibo post by contacting the  poster, who reiterated that 55tuan had cut 22 of the 31 people in the local markets division where he works, or about 70 percent of the division. (Chinese article) I suspect we’ll see domestic media follow up on this rumor today, and clearly you can’t extrapolate big cuts in a small regional division to an entire company. But at the very least, assuming this worker is really from 55tuan, this kind of a big cut in a single division probably points to major adjustments being made at 55tuan, which in July had to abandon plans for a US IPO after several investment banks refused to handle the deal over concerns about accounting records at some of its recently acquired assets. (previous post) Rival Lashou, China’s biggest group buying site, was racing to find an investment bank for its own IPO earlier this month, after Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley reportedly resigned from the case over similar concerns. (previous post) Both 55tuan and Lashou raised $100 million or more earlier this year amid a boom in China’s group buying sector that resulted in fierce competition, drawing the field of money-losing players deeper into the red. The layoffs at 55tuan, if true, would be the most significant in the sector so far, following major cuts at Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between US giant Groupon and China Internet leader Tencent (HKEx: 700) earlier this year. Investors look unlikely to pour more funds into these money-losing companies anytime soon, which means that unless they can raise money some other way most are likely to go into a “cash preservation” mode by implementing severe spending cuts including layoffs and reduced marketing activities. When that happens, look for a ripple effect to hit other web firms like Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina, that rely heavily on ad revenues for their income.

Bottom line: Rumors of layoffs at group buying site 55tuan, if true, would mark the most significant sign to date of distress in the overheated sector, which is poised for a major shake-up.

我通常不愿探讨传言，但昨晚新浪(SINA.O)微博上称窝窝团将大规模裁员，这则消息实在不容忽视，它反映了该公司以及整个团购行业面临的困境。新浪後来与微博作者取得联系，对方称其曾在窝窝团工作的部门大幅裁员。我估计今天国内媒体会就此追踪报导，当然我们不能基于一个部门的裁员来推测整个公司。但我们至少可以这麽想，若一个部门大幅裁员，可能意味着公司正进行重大调整。窝窝团此前曾打算赴美上市，後来因多家投行对其收购的一些资产的会计记录存在顾虑，拒绝接手其上市事宜，导致窝窝团7月放弃赴美上市。另一团购网站–拉手网本月早些时候也苦苦寻找投行安排上市事宜，此前摩根士丹利(MS.N)和高盛(GS.N)出于类似顾虑，退出拉手网上市案。今年早些时候，中国团购业如火如荼之际，窝窝团和拉手网均曾筹资至少1亿美元，但後来行业竞争加剧，团购网站亏损严重。如果窝窝团大幅裁员消息属实，则将是高朋网今年大规模裁员後，团购业最轰动事件。短期内投资者不太可能再向这些亏损公司投入更多资金，这意味着它们除非能有别的筹资渠道，否则就不得不保存现金，通过裁员和减少营销活动等途径削减支出。一旦出现这样的局面，势必波及百度(BIDU.O)和新浪等严重依赖广告收入的网络公司。

一句话：窝窝团裁员传言若属实，则是团购业陷入困境的最明确信号，意味着该行业将出现重大调整。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lashou Begs for an IPO Banking Partner 拉手网拼命寻找上市承销商

◙ Group Buying Sites: The First to Fall? 团购网或将在互联网泡沫破灭时应声而倒？

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

 

Alibaba.com Blows Smoke With HiChina Spin-Off Plan 阿里巴巴网络分拆万网放烟幕弹

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Alibaba.com’s (HKEx: 1688) new announcement that it may spin off HiChina, its Internet infrastructure service provider that it acquired just 2 years ago, has all the signs of valuation envy from an industry leader that feels unappreciated by investors. (English article) That’s the only reason I can give for the strange timing of this announcement, coming at the height of one of the worst IPO markets in the last 2 years and at a time when US-listed China companies are particularly out of favor. Let’s look at the numbers: Alibaba.com, easily China’s biggest B2B e-commerce site, purchased HiChina in 2009 for a price that gave it a valuation at that time of around $100 million. Now, an unnamed source being quoted by the Wall Street Journal is saying the IPO could value the company at up to $500 million, or 5 times what Alibaba.com paid for it. I’m sure Alibaba has brought some synergies to the company since the purchase and also invested more money in it, but a 400 percent increase in value in just 2 years seems a bit too rich to me. More likely, Alibaba.com is feeling underappreciated by investors, who have dumped its shares in recent months causing it to lose nearly half its value since July, with a current market cap of around $4 billion. That’s easily the lowest market cap for any category leader in China’s Internet space. Leading web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has a current market cap of $5.4 billion, while Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700), the leading search engine and online game operator, boast sky-high valuations of $43 billion and $37 billion, respectively. Alibaba.com’s parent company, Alibaba Group, is also no doubt feeling some pressure to show stronger valuations from its units after investors purchased a stake in the parent company last week that valued it at a whopping $32 billion. (previous post) Considering that Alibaba.com is probably the parent group’s most valuable asset and worth just $4 billion, I’m not sure where the other $28 billion of that sky-high valuation is coming from. All that said, this HiChina spin-off plan looks like mostly a distraction to divert attention away from Alibaba’s industry-lagging valuations.

Bottom line: Alibaba.com’s plan to spin off its HiChina infrastructure services unit is a ploy to generate excitement to boost its own industry-trailing valuation.

阿里巴巴网络有限公司（Alibaba.com）(1688.HK)日前发布公告称，公司拟分拆两年前收购的互联网基础设施服务提供商万网（HiChina），後者将赴美上市，其估值颇令人眼红。这是我能想到此时发布公告的唯一原因。目前是两年来首次公开募股（IPO）市场最糟时刻之一，赴美上市的中国企业尤其不受投资者青睐。让我们来看看相关数据。Alibaba.com是中国最大的B2B电子商务网站，2009年以5.4亿元收购万网股权。《华尔街日报》援引一名消息人士的说法称，万网上市时的市值或高达5亿美元，是阿里巴巴网络收购价的五倍。我相信，收购万网後，阿里巴巴为其带来了一些协同效应，也对其投入了更多资金，但仅两年价值就增长4倍，我认为，这样的涨幅有点过高。更可能的情况是，阿里巴巴网络觉得不被投资者看好。投资者近几个月抛售其股票，致使该公司市值自7月来缩水近一半，目前约为40亿美元。在中国互联网领域，对于一个领军企业来说，这样的市值非常低。门户网站新浪(SINA.O)目前市值为54亿美元，百度(BIDU.O)及腾讯(0700.HK)的市值分别为430亿美元和370亿美元。阿里巴巴网络母公司–阿里巴巴集团也面临压力。多家投资机构上周投资阿里巴巴集团，促使其市值高达320亿美元。考虑到阿里巴巴网络可能是该集团最有价值的资产，但其市值仅为40亿美元，我不知道阿里巴巴集团高得离谱的市值从何而来。总而言之，分拆万网的计划看似多半是为了转移投资者对阿里巴巴网络估值的关注。

一句话：阿里巴巴网络有限公司计划分拆万网，目的是为了提升公司落後于行业的估值。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

◙ Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

◙ Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

News Digest: September 22, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 22. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Dangdang (NYSE: DANG) Plans 3C Price War Against 360Buy – Source (English article)

◙ Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Passes Acer (Taipei: 2353) As World’s Third Biggest PC Seller (Chinese article)

◙ Sino Agro Food Clears SEC Comments on its Form 10 Registration Statement (Businesswire)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) Invests in Group Buying Cosmetics Site 36tuan – Source (Chinese article)

◙ Shanda’s (Nasdaq: SNDA) Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV) Quits Video, Tries SNS (Chinese article)

Latest Google Move: Gearing Up For China Return? 谷歌最新动向：打回中国市场？

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Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) has launched yet another new China initiative, this time opening a group buying directory, in the latest of a series of moves that has the industry buzzing that the global search leader is reconsidering its high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year. In this latest development, domestic media are reporting that Google has officially launched a new site, Shuihui, to help Web surfers navigate the huge field of group buying sites, led by names like Lashou and 55tuan, that have sprung up in the last two years. (English article) The launch follows Google’s brief announcement last week that Beijing has renewed its Internet China Internet license (English article), and comes 3 months after Google reached a settlement with Chinese regulators that allowed it to continue providing its mapping services in China. (previous post) Google is also aggressively promoting its Android cellphone operating system in China as a lower cost alternative to Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone OS. This new spirit of cooperation between Google and Beijing contrasts sharply with the war of words between the two that ended with Google’s high-profile withdrawal from China’s search market last year over self-censorship issues. The changing tone has sparked rumors that Google is reconsidering its withdrawal from China’s search market, a move that at first seems unlikely but which could actually be possible due to some key changes in the market since last year’s big dispute. The biggest change is Beijing’s growing unease at Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) domination of China’s search market, with around 80 percent share now and no clear challengers in sight. (previous post) The second major change is that Beijing and Google have had some time to think, and both realize they can benefit from each other if they choose to work together rather than fight. Of course, Google will only come back if Beijing makes a major face-saving concession, probably by lifting many of its strict self-censorship rules. But considering recent developments, I would put Google’s chances for a return to China’s search market at 50-50 in the next 12 months.

Bottom line: Google may be considering a return to China’s search market in light of recent warming of its relations with Beijing, with a 50 percent chance of returning in the next 12 months.

谷歌(GOOG.O)再次出击中国市场，这次是团购搜索分类“谷歌时惠”，加之谷歌近来一系列其他举措，业界不禁猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑去年高调退出中国搜索市场的做法。据中国国内媒体报导，谷歌正式推出新服务“谷歌时惠”，帮助网络用户导航纷繁众多的团购网站。在此之前，谷歌还于上周发布简短声明，称中国政府已经更新了谷歌的中国互联网牌照。而在三个月前，谷歌与中国监管机构达成妥协，谷歌可继续在中国提供地图服务。此外，谷歌还在中国积极推广安卓手机操作系统，作为苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone OS的替代选择。谷歌与中国政府之间崭新的合作精神与去年双方围绕自我过滤问题的激烈交锋形成鲜明对比。合作基调渐趋改变，促使业界猜测谷歌是否在重新考虑其退出中国搜索市场做法。最大的变化在于中国对于百度在中国搜索市场的垄断地位益发不安。百度在国内搜索引擎市场的占有率高达80%，对手们远远被甩在了後面。第二个重大变化是中国政府与谷歌有了一些思考的时间，都意识到双方合则两利，斗则两伤。当然，只有在中国政府作出重大让步，比如放开很多自我审查规定之後，谷歌才会回归。但是考虑到近来事态的发展，我认为谷歌今後12个月回归中国搜索市场的机率为50%。

一句话：鉴于近来与中国政府的关系逐渐升温，谷歌可能正在考虑重回中国搜索市场，未来12个月回归机率大约为50%。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Google Map Impasse Resolved With New JV 谷歌地图风波解决

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Google’s China Map Crisis Near Resolution 谷歌中国地图争端接近解决

Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

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Just two days after Carol Bartz’s high-profile departure from Yahoo (Nasdaq: YHOO), the inevitable first reports are already emerging that the US search giant is in talks to sell its troublesome 40 percent stake in Alibaba Group. (English article) I’m guessing this report, which cites an unnamed source, is probably very preliminary, as any such talks wouldn’t have started until after Bartz’s firing on Wednesday. What’s more, Yahoo’s acting CEO is just filling the position on an interim basis, meaning he would be highly unlikely to make such a major decision until a new permanent CEO arrives. But such a sale will inevitably be discussed, and I just want to take this opportunity to say that this is exactly NOT the time to consider such a move. I agree that the Alibaba stake was a major distraction for Bartz during her stormy tenure, and that I said once or twice that the company should try to sell it to focus on its own turnaround story. But the fact is, Alibaba and Yahoo could potentially really help each other, which is the main reason the former sold 40 percent of itself to the latter in 2006 when Yahoo was headed by Jerry Yang, good friend of Alibaba Chairman Jack Ma. If Yahoo’s new CEO can build a good working relationship with Ma, there are many places this pair could benefit each other. Yahoo has a solid global network in search and e-commerce that could both greatly benefit the global aspirations of Alibaba’s two e-commerce sites, Alibaba.com (HKEx: 1688) and Taobao. From Yahoo’s perspective, it could leverage Alibaba’s position as China’s top e-commerce company to make another play for the China search market, especially after Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) high profile departure last year that left Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) with a near monopoly that is clearly making Beijing uncomfortable. Of course we’ll need to see who Yahoo picks as its new CEO, but if it’s smart it will bring Jack Ma into the process to hopefully find someone who can take advantage of this troubled but potentially lucrative relationship.

Bottom line: Yahoo would be well advised to delay considering a sale of its Alibaba stake, and should instead focus on finding a new CEO who can work well with the Chinese company.

仅在雅虎(YHOO.O)解雇首席执行官（CEO）巴茨（Carol Bartz）两天之後，已经有报导称雅虎正在商谈出售所持有的阿里巴巴公司40%股权。我猜这篇援引未具名人士的报导内容可能非常不成熟，这种重要的谈判在巴茨周三被解雇之前并不会开始。此外，雅虎的代理CEO只是临时应急，也就是说在新CEO到任前，他绝无可能作出这个重要决定。然而，商讨出售阿里巴巴股权将无可避免，我也想借这个机会说，现在绝不是考虑采取行动的好时机。我也认为阿里巴巴股权问题是巴茨在任期间让她主要困扰的问题。我曾说过一两次，雅虎应该尝试出售持有的阿里巴巴股权，聚焦于改善自身经营业绩状况。但是，阿里巴巴和雅虎事实上存在真正相互支持的可能性，这也是前者在2006年将40%股权售予雅虎的主要原因。当时雅虎的CEO是杨致远，也是阿里巴巴董事局主席马云的好朋友。如果雅虎的新任CEO能够与马云建立良好的工作关系，两家公司在很多方面可以实现互惠互利。雅虎拥有稳固的全球搜索和电子商务网络，可以极大惠及阿里巴巴旗下两家电子网站--阿里巴巴和淘宝的全球发展目标。从雅虎的角度来看，可以利用阿里巴巴在中国电子商务领域的龙头地位，在中国搜索市场再做文章。尤其是在谷歌去年高调离开之後，百度获得了接近垄断的行业地位，这明显让中国政府感到不安。当然，我们需要看看雅虎挑选谁来担任CEO，但是雅虎如果足够聪明的话，将请马云参与到寻找合适人选的过程中，处理好目前陷入困难但仍有希望改善的双方关系。

一句话：雅虎应该延後考虑出售所持阿里巴巴的股权，聚焦于加快寻找能够与阿里巴巴睦邻互惠的新任CEO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Bartz Departs: Time to Reset Alibaba, Yahoo Relationship 雅虎解雇CEO或是阿里巴巴与之冰释前嫌的良机

◙ Alibaba in Alipay Deal: Jack Ma Wins Again 支付宝股权纷争尘埃落定 马云公关赚钱两不误

◙ Alibaba’s Ma In Unusual Defensive Posture 阿里巴巴马云的防守战

360Buy $5 Bln IPO Plan Looks Like Desperation 京东商城50亿美元上市计划凸显绝望

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I have just one word to describe the news that leading Chinese online merchant 360Buy will try to raise up to $5 billion in the largest-ever Internet IPO for a Chinese company in the US: desperation. (English article; Chinese article) But I have to at least give this company credit for trying to get to market before a looming Chinese Internet bubble bursts, which could rapidly wipe out billions of dollars that investors have pumped into 360Buy, which officially calls itself Jingdong Mall. This is the company that surprised the world in April when it raised a whopping $1.5 billion — a record for a Chinese Internet company — from an investor group that included Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies, better known for its investment in Facebook. (previous post) Digital Sky’s chief later tried to justify the size of the investment, estimating that 360Buy could have a market cap of $10 billion — more than double that of most to Chinese Internet firms and trailing only top players Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) (previous post) Never mind the fact that 360Buy was losing money, which will become quite clear to everyone when if and when it files its IPO prospectus. Lots has happened since that landmark investment five months agol. Most notably, competition in the e-commerce space has heated up considerably with the influx of billions of dollars in new investment. Money-losing online promotions offering goods at ridiculously low prices appear almost daily, and early signs of distress have begun to appear with big names like group buying site Gaopeng and clothing retailer Vancl laying off staff (previous post). 360Buy showed its own signs of distress last month when it abruptly severed relations with e-payments provider AliPay in a move to cut costs. (previous post) I suspect Digital Sky and the other investors from that $1.5 billion funding round are starting to panic, and are now in a race against time to get back some of their investment before China’s bursting Internet bubble is impossible to ignore. If I were a gambler, I would say this offering will raise $1 billion at the most, and quite probably less, if it even makes it to market. The way things are rapidly developing, the company will be lucky to get a valuation of $5 billion.

Bottom line: 360Buy’s sudden rush to raise up to $5 billion in a US IPO is a sign of desperation, as investors look for quick returns before China’s Internet bubble bursts.

看到京东商城要去美国上市筹资50亿美元的消息，我只想用一个词来描述我的看法：绝望。京东商城是中国最大的购物网站，这个上市计划一旦成功将创下中国互联网公司赴美上市筹资额的历史之最。不过，对京东在中国互联网行业泡沫行将破裂前，尝试借助资本市场的努力，我还是至少要给予褒奖。中国互联网泡沫的破裂可能导致投资者对京东商城倾情投入的数十亿美元迅速灰飞烟灭。今年4月，京东商城从包括俄罗斯风投公司数字天空技术（Digital Sky Technologies）的投资者财团成功筹集到15亿美元资金，创下中国互联网公司对外定向筹资的纪录。这让外界倍感意外。数字天空技术更出名的行动当属投资Facebook，该公司後来试图为其投资规模找出理由，称京东商城的估值可能高达100亿美元，较大多数其他中国互联网公司的市值高出一倍有余，仅次于百度和腾讯等龙头企业。不要介意京东商城正在亏损，这一事实在这家公司发布上市招股书的时候将大白天下。在五个月前获得标志性巨额投资之後发生了很多事情。最值得关注的是，随着数十亿美元投资的流入，电子商务行业竞争显着升级。几乎每天都能看到提供荒唐低价商品的赔钱促销活动，随着团购网站高朋和服装零售网站凡客的裁员，电子商务行业已经初露危机迹象。上月，京东商城以降低成本的名义突然弃用支付宝，正是前者面临危机的迹象。我猜测，稍早提供15亿美元融资的数字天空技术公司等投资者已经感到痛楚，在不敢无视中国互联网泡沫行将破裂的情况下，正争分夺秒争取上市，以抢先回收部分投资。如果我是一名赌家，我会押注京东商城若决定上市，最多筹得10亿美元，并很可能更少。世事变幻莫测，京东商城若能筹得50亿美元，则需要运气。

一句话：京东商城突然宣布计划赴美上市筹资50亿美元，释放出绝望的信号，机构投资者期待抢在中国互联网泡沫破裂前赶快回收投资。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ 360Buy — More Details But Still Pricey 京东商城值多少？

◙ 360Buy Cuts Off Alipay As China Internet Froth Builds 京东停用支付宝印证中国互联网泡沫

◙ 360Buy — Are They Really Worth That Much? 京东商城——真值那么多钱？

Renren Discovers Microblogging Too Late

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Leading Chinese social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) has finally discovered microblogging, with the launch of a new service, called Xiaozhan, designed to emulate Twitter to complement its traditional SNS site that looks and feels more like Facebook. (company announcement) The only problem is, China already has a company called Weibo, a unit of leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), which looks unstoppable as it signs up millions of new users each month and whose name has become interchangeable with microblogging in China. Rival microblogging sites operated by such big names as NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) have struggled to compete with Weibo, and Chinese search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) even shuttered its own microblogging site earlier this year, acknowledging it was unable to play in the space. (previous post) In fact, Weibo, whose Chinese name actually means “microblog” in Chinese, launched its own traditional SNS site, called Qing, last month, in a bid to leverage its huge popularity to steal business from Renren and other traditional SNS sites like Kaixin. (previous post) Some  might argue that Renren needs to fight back with its own microblogging service to offer a more complete social networking experience, and that it can leverage its traditional SNS platform to lure many of its subscribers to this new Xiaozhan service. I agree to some extent that Renren needs to find related services to leverage its user base to grow. But unless it can offer something revolutionary in microblogging, which I seriously doubt, I would advise the company to look for other new opportunities and leave this space for Weibo. Barring anything unusual, I would expect this new Xiaozhan service to struggle for its entire existence, and could see Renren quietly shuttering the service in the next 1 to 2 years.

Bottom line: Renren’s newly launched microblogging service is destined for failure in the face of  insurmountable competition from Sina’s Weibo.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Renren Results: A Mixed Bag for Everyone 人人网业绩：苦乐参半

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

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Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化