Tag Archives: China Unicom

China Unicom : latest financial, market & economic news and analysis from Doug Young

News Digest: November 18-20, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on November 18-20. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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◙ Lawmakers probe Chinese telecoms firms in U.S. (English article)

◙ Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iTunes App Store Begins Accepting RMB Payment (English article)

◙ New Oriental (NYSE: EDU) Refutes Allegations Made by OLP Global (PRNewswire)

◙ Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) Halts B2C Site Lekutian Investment – Source; Lekutian Denies (Chinese article)

◙ China Mobile (HKEx: 941) to Deploy 10-20K TD-LTE Base Stations in H1 2012 (English article)

 

Apple Overlooks China — Again 苹果再次撇开中国内地市场

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In what is becoming an increasingly common refrain, Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has once again overlooked China in the global launch for its latest smartphone, the iPhone 4S, in what looks like an expression of growing frustration with its difficult Chinese partners. The company, whose China sales have exploded on the popularity of its smartphones, tablet PCs and desktop computers, has announced a second wave of launch markets for the newest iPhone starting next week following the initial launch in the US and several other major markets last month. (company announcement) The second wave includes Hong Kong and South Korea in Asia but contains no mention of China, with Chinese media reporting a launch for the domestic market won’t occur until year-end at the earliest. (Chinese article) This latest China snub looks similar to Apple’s global launch for its iPad2 in May, when China was also absent from the original list. In that case, however, Apple quickly reconsidered and launched the iPad 2 in China just a week after the global launch. (previous post) In this case, in my view, the absence of China from the latest global iPhone launch probably reflects Apple’s growing frustration with China’s 3 telcos, most notably China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), the country’s only official iPhone supplier to date. Unicom has recently shown a tendency to botch even the simplest product launches, and is fast squandering its chances to pick up share on dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL). For their part, China Mobile and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), China’s third telco, have also proven difficult partners for Apple, with each repeatedly hinting they were on the verge of signing iPhone deals only to fail to announce anything. It’s still possible we could see an iPhone 4S deal in China before year-end if Unicom can reach an agreement. But based on past experience, I wouldn’t bet on seeing any official iPhone 4S tie-ups in China anytime soon.

Bottom line: Apple’s failure to include China in its latest iPhone 4S launch list reflects its difficult relationship with China’s mobile carriers, especially China Unicom.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile: Where’s the 3G iPhone? 中移动4G网络稳步推进 3G版iPhone或遇阻

◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

◙ China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

Govt to Nat’l Cable Firm: Be Profitable 政府对国家广电公司的安排：商业化

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There’s an interesting report in the domestic media on the ongoing consolidation of China’s fragmented cable TV sector, which seems to indicate that not only is this campaign moving forward on schedule but also that the government is determined to make the new national giant a commercially viable company. The report says that the NDRC, China’s state planner, has rejected a plan from the state agency overseeing the consolidation and asked it to submit a new one. (English article) The major issue is cost: the original plan by the agency overseeing the consolidation called for the government to allocate 1 trillion yuan, or about $150 billion, to complete the project. The NDRC said that price tag was too high, and that rather than becoming a government-controlled entity as the original plan proposed, the new company, to be called China Radio & Television Network, should be a commercially-oriented state-owned enterprise. This sounds to me like the latest signal that central planners intend for this new company to be a serious commercial provider of wire-based broadband services in China, competing directly with the nation’s other major telcos, namely China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) in providing such services. Considering that this new company will already have wired networks into the homes and offices of hundreds of millions of Chinese consumers and businesses, this new company, which will already supply basic cable TV services to most homes, will have all the  infrastructure and customer contacts it needs in place to quickly become an important new player in the market alongside the 3 major telcos. Of course, the consolidation could still run into trouble and a new, effective management structure will have to be created for this project to be a success. But if that happens, I would look for this new major broadband company to take shape and earn profits as early as late next year, with a possible an IPO as soon as 2013 to help it raise the capital it needs to become an important new player.

Bottom line: China’s plan to create a new national broadband company from its regional cable TV firms appears to be moving forward, with the state intent on making a commercially strong player.

中国媒体近日发表了一篇有意思的报道，透露了广电网络整合的最新进展。报道表明整合正按照日程持续进行，并预示政府决定将这个广电网络这个巨头商业化运作。该报道称，发改委拒绝了之前提交的整合计划，并要求广电方面制定新的计划。拒绝前一计划的主要原因还是费用问题。广电方面要求政府拨款1万亿元来完成整合，但发改委认为费用过于高昂，并且不认同广电提出的国家级有线电视网络公司“中国广播电视网络公司”的事业编国企方案，而是属意纯公司化运作的国有大型文化企业方案。在我看来，这就像是一个最新的信号，表明发改委希望中国广电网络“中国广播电视网络公司”能成为一个商业化的有线网络运营商，直接和提供类似服务的中移动 (0941.HK; CHL.N)、中联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)和中电信(0728.HK; CHA.N)三大运营商竞争。考虑到广电的有线网络已经在成千上万的家庭和办公室入户，为海量的个人用户和企业客户提供基本的有线电视服务，广电在地方上将拥有基础设施和用户之便，成为市场上和三大运营商比肩的新巨头。当然，广电整合仍然可能遇到未知的问题，能否建立一个高效的管理体系将成为成败的关键。一旦整合成功，我预测这个新的宽带公司将最早在明年底就盈利，可能在2013年公开募股，以集资和三大运营商抗衡。

一句话：中国计划将区域有线电视提供商整合为一家大企业，同时希望这家公司成为市场上新的强力参与者。 (翻译：网易）

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Anti-Monopoly Regulator Makes Poor Choice in Chasing China Telecom 中国反垄断初试牛刀 选错对象

◙ Cable Consolidation Moves Closer With New Umbrella Company 中国广播电视网络公司有望近期挂牌 有线网络整合步伐加快

◙ Cable Consolidation Crosses Provincial Lines 中国广电行业跨省并购案

Unicom’s Sputtering 3G: Blame It On the Handsets 联通幡然醒悟 借低价手机扩张3G市场

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Despite receiving numerous advantages from Beijing in China’s fledgling 3G market, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; HKEx: CHU) has shown disappointingly slow progress in boosting its share in the space and now we may know why: a shortage of low-cost handsets. That’s what domestic media are reporting, with Unicom preparing to buy up to 8 million smartphones costing under 1,000 yuan, or about $150 each, in a bid to boost its share in the market. (Chinese article) A quick look at the numbers shows that Unicom has made little or no progress in terms of boosting its 3G market share in the last 4 months. It owned 30 percent of the market in April, compared to 45 percent for the nation’s dominant carrier China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) and 25 percent for China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). (previous post) Fast forward to August, when Unicom’s share remained stuck at 30 percent, while China Mobile’s dropped 2 percentage points to 43 percent, all of which was picked up by China Telecom, whose share rose to 27 percent. (English article) In my view, blaming its lack of progress on lack of low-cost handsets is a lame excuse. Unicom’s 3G network is technically superior to both of its rivals’, supported by a much wider array of handsets than those available to 3G subscribers of China Mobile or China Telecom. The fact that Unicom chose to focus on high-end customers in its 3G campaign, relying especially heavily on Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) trendy but costly iPhone, shows a clear lack of foresight by the company, which should have realized that the vast majority of Chinese living outside the wealthiest cities like Beijing and Shanghai may not want to spend 3,000 yuan or more for 3G handsets. I applaud Unicom for finally realizing its mistake and moving to rectify it with a mass purchase of lower-cost phones. But such a fundamental miscalculation looks a bit worrisome, especially as Unicom’s technological advantage could end as soon as next year as China Mobile trials and prepares for the commercial launch of a solid 4G product and China Telecom continues its aggressive 3G promotion.

Bottom line: Unicom’s failure to anticipate demand for low-cost 3G handsets reflects a lack of vision, which will undermine the company’s longer term prospects.

在中国刚刚起步的3G市场，中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)从政府那儿得到数不清的好处，但它在提高市场份额方面却显出令人失望的迟缓，现在，我们或许已经知道其中缘由了：缺乏低成本手机。根据国内媒体报导，为扩大市场份额，联通准备采购800万部千元以下的智能手机。光看这一数字就知道，联通在过去四个月中几乎未能在抢占3G市场份额方面取得任何进展。今年4月，联通占有30%的3G市场份额，中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)和中国电信(CHA.N)分别为45%和25%。到了8月份，联通的市场份额未变，中国移动则下滑两个百分点，至43%，中国电信则升至27%。在我看来，将进展迟缓归咎于缺乏低成本手机是个非常蹩脚的借口。联通的3G网络在技术上要优于竞争对手，相比中国移动或中国电信的3G用户，联通提供了更多样化的手机选择。但联通选择把高端客户，特别是依赖苹果iPhone手机的人，作为其扩张3G市场的重点，这个事实只能说明联通缺乏远见。联通本应意识到，那些不在北京、上海等一线城市生活的广大中国民众或许不愿花3,000多块钱买个3G手机。联通总算能意识到错误，并通过大量采购低成本手机的亡羊补牢之举，令我感到庆幸。但这麽低级的一个判断失误着实令人担心，尤其考虑到联通的技术优势可能会最早在明年终结，届时中国移动或在明年尝试并准备推出商业化的4G产品，中国电信也会继续其3G网络的推广。

一句话：中国联通未能预见到低成本3G手机的巨大需求，说明缺乏远见，而这一缺陷将有损联通的长远前景。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ Unicom Builds Legitimacy with Sina Tie-Up 中国联通联手新浪

◙  Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

Anti-Monopoly Regulator Makes Poor Choice in Chasing China Telecom 中国反垄断初试牛刀 选错对象

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After a couple of years of a low-key approach and not doing much, China’s anti-monopoly regulator is finally getting to work by investigating China Telecom’s (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) dominance in the country’s broadband market. I’ll admit this is an interesting case, and have to applaud the regulator for following up on complaints by names like China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Tietong that China Telecom unfairly uses its dominant position to keep others out of the market. (English article; Chinese article) But frankly speaking, the regulator has chosen the wrong case to test out its powers as enforcer of fair market competition. China Telecom certainly has a dominant position in broadband, drawing on its legacy wired networks to provide services to the companies and consumers, especially in the southern China where it has the most extensive networks. But there are many indications that more competition is coming, and indeed already exists. Unicom itself already has significant fixed-line broadband representation in the northern China, the result of a decade-old split that saw the nation’s previous wired-line phone monopoly split up and its northern networks given to Unicom and the southern ones to China Telecom. Furthermore, China Mobile (HKEx: CHL) is on a current campaign to build extensive wi-fi service, another form of broadband, with plans to build 1 million hot spots in the next 3 years (previous post). China’s current drive to consolidate its cable TV operators should produce yet another major wired broadband player. With all these alternatives in the market, not to mention China Mobile’s 4G network that could launch commercial service as soon as next year, it will be hard for the regulator to determine that China Telecom has a monopoly on broadband service. I do applaud the regulator for taking on this difficult case, but instead it should focus on speeding up approval for YUM Brands’ (NYSE: YUM) pending purchase of hot pot chain Little Sheep (HKEx: 968), announced 5 months ago (previous post), which has no monopolistic implications but has some worried the deal could be vetoed on nationalistic grounds.

Bottom line: China’s anti-monopoly regulator has made a bad choice in chasing China Telecom’s broadband dominance in its first tough case.

中国《反垄断法》出台三年来，相关部委一直低调行事且作为有限，如今终於“初试牛刀”，对主导国内宽带接入市场的中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>展开反垄断调查。我承认这很有趣，不得不为监管机构回应中国联通<0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国铁通的抱怨鼓掌。这些电信商称，中国电信不公平利用其宽带市场主导地位，试图排挤其它竞争对手。但坦白地说，监管机构希望推动市场公平竞争，但初试牛刀却选错对象。中国电信凭借已有的有线网络，向各大公司和消费者提供服务，确实在宽带接入市场占主导地位，尤其是在中国电信网络覆盖很广的南方地区。但许多迹象表明，该领域竞争已经展开，并即将激烈化。联通占有中国北方固话宽带较大份额。这是原中国电信十年前南北分拆的结果。此外，中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>正在拓展WiFi服务（宽带的另一种形式），计划未来三年在全国增加100万个WiFi热点。中国目前整合有线电视运营商的行动，也将制造另一个有线宽带竞争者，更别提中国移动4G网络最早明年可能实现商用。宽带市场拥有上述替代选择，监管者很难断定，中国电信垄断国内宽带服务。我的确要为监管机构处理这一棘手问题叫好，但他们更应加速百胜集团<YUM.N>收购小肥羊<0968.HK>的审批，这笔交易并无垄断迹象，但一些人担忧，该交易或因民族主义原因而被否决。

一句话：中国监管机构就宽带接入问题，对中国电信进行反垄断调查，但初试牛刀却选错对象。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Wi-Fi Play Misguided 中移动：百万WiFi热点？

◙ China Telecom Joins Hot Spot Frenzy Wifi热潮兴起 中国电信与中国移动谁将胜出？

◙ YUM and Little Sheep – A Sweet Match If China Approves 美国百胜购小肥羊：甜蜜姻缘还靠中国政府成全

China Telecom Set for Boost With Imminent iPhone Deal 中国电信借力iPhone

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After a few weeks of relative quiet for Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in China, there’s new buzz in the telecoms sector that China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) is set to start offering the iPhone 5 in October, ending months of speculation about the move. (Chinese article) The Chinese media reports are a bit unclear about whether the smallest of China’s 3 telcos has actually signed a deal with Apple, only saying China Telecom will offer the iPhone 5 starting in October and that vendors are already placing orders for the popular smartphone. That does seem to imply that the two sides have signed a deal, although I would expect an official announcement from China Telecom if that was the case, as clearly this is news it would want to publicize as part of its aggressive drive to build up its fledgling 3G business. Regardless of the actual situation, it does appear that China Telecom will start to offer iPhone service plans by October or November at the latest, which should give it a brief momentum boost over its two chief rivals, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and industry titan China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHT) as the 3 jostle for share in China’s 2-year-old 3G market. I use the word “brief” because China Telecom will probably only have a 2 or 3 months to bask in its new iPhone deal before China Mobile announces a bigger new deal to offer an iPhone that can work on its own 3G network, based on a homegrown Chinese technology called TD-SCDMA. (previous post) Such a deal has been rumored for months and appears to be near, which should help China Mobile take back some of the momentum it has lost over the last 2 years to China Telecom and Unicom, which already offers the iPhone. Of course, the winner in all this will be Apple itself, which will be able to use all 3 of China’s telcos to offer its iPhones that enjoy huge popularity in China — the world’s largest mobile market with more than 900 million subscribers. But among the carriers themselves, look for China Telecom to enjoy some momentum through the end of this year, which it will rapidly lose in 2012 after China Mobile signs its own iPhone deal.

Bottom line: China Telecom’s imminent deal with Apple to offer iPhones for its 3G network will give it new momentum over its rivals that will last through the end of the year.

围绕苹果(AAPL.O)的消息在中国刚相对平静了几周，通信业内又传出中国电信(0728.HK)(CHA.N)将于10月率先在中国推出iPhone 5的消息，结束此前几个月的坊间猜测。中国媒体称，还不清楚中国电信是否已经确实与苹果签订了有关协议，只是说中国电信将从10月开始提供iPhone 5， 经销商已经下单采购。这看似意味着双方已经签约，不过我预计若确有此事，中国电信会发布正式公告。这明显是中国电信想对外散布消息，也是希望推广其3G业务努力的一部分。无论实际情况如何，中国电信看似确实要在10月或最晚11月开始推出iPhone服务计划。这无疑在中国电信在3G领域挑战中国联通和中国移动过程中，带来短时的提振。我说“短时”是因为中国电信可能只会赢得两三个月的时间，享有拓展iPhone业务的领跑优势，随後中国移动可能会宣布更大规模基于其3G标准–TD-SCDMA网络的iPhone推广计划。关于中移动的传闻已经有几个月，现在似乎已经快要接近现实了，这将帮助中移动收复过去两年流失到中国电信和中国联通的部分失地。无疑，苹果将是上述竞争的最终获益者，能够利用中国全部三家电信公司的渠道售卖iPhone，而苹果的iPhone产品在拥有逾九亿用户的全球第一大移动通讯市场享有极高人气。但是，从各家中国电信运营商来看，中国电信在年底前会享受些许成长助力，在明年中国移动签约自己的iPhone之後，中国电信在这方面的优势将迅速消退。

一句话：中国电信即将签约苹果，提供用于其自身3G网络的iPhone业务启动在即，将在移动通讯市场竞争中获得新的动能，但好光景也许只能维持到年底。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Latest Comments Show Why China Mobile’s Conservative Wang Should Retire 王建宙从中国移动退休或许已为期不远

◙ China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

China Mobile Turns Up 3G With New Handset Push 中国移动3G再发力

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With its new top management now firmly running the show, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) continues to embrace its previously neglected 3G network, preparing to roll out a large new array of handsets that will work on the system using a homegrown mobile standard. Local media are reporting that China Mobile is preparing to launch some 30 new 3G handsets for its TD-SCDMA system, covering a wide range of price-points and models from nearly every major manufacturer, including Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and BlackBerry (Toronto: RIM), as well as homegrown players ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei. (English article) Of course, the big piece still missing is a TD-SCDMA version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone, but all indications point to introduction of an iPhone that can work on China Mobile’s 3G system by the end of the year. (previous post) As its 3G push picks up momentum, look for the balance in China’s young 3G market to swing back in China Mobile’s direction, as it retakes share from rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA). Separately on the telecoms front, Nokia has come out and confessed that it is suffering from “channel issues” in China, following media reports earlier this month that its China distributors were rebelling en masse by refusing to sell its increasingly unpopular models after years of bullying. (Chinese article) According to this  latest report, Nokia forced large volumes of its phones on distributors in the first quarter of this year, allowing it to post 30 percent shipment growth in China for the period. But many of those phones couldn’t compete with more popular models, especially in the smartphone space, causing inventories to balloon and distributors to refuse to accept more handsets. As a result, Nokia’s China shipments tumbled 41 percent in the second quarter. Clearly the company is set for more stormy times ahead in China, at least until it comes out with its highly-anticipated new line of smartphones later this year based on Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Mango operating system.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s new 3G push will help it grab market share from rivals, while Nokia will continue to slide in China at least until it rolls out its new Mango-based smartphones.

中国移动(0941.HK; CHL.N)在新的管理层全力指挥下，继续向先前忽略的3G网络发力，准备扎堆推出一系列采用本土3G标准的新款手机。据国内媒体报导，中移动准备发布高、中、低档总数约30款的TD-SCDMA新机型，分别出自诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)、三星电子(005930.KS)、黑莓制造商Research In Motion(RIMM.O)及本土企业中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)与华为等厂商。当然，仍然缺少重量级产品–TD版的苹果iPhone，但所有迹象都表明：适用于中国移动3G网络的TD版iPhone今年年底前可能推出。随着中移动突击发展3G网络，中国诞生不久的3G格局可能会向中移动倾斜，因它可能会从竞争对手中国联通(0762.HK; CHU.N)与中国电信(0728.HK; CHA.N)中抢回一些市场份额。另外，在手机制造商方面，诺基亚已经承认在中国市场“渠道”环节出问题。此前媒体报导称，由于中国渠道商不愿出售诺基亚越来越受不欢迎的机型，诺基亚开始遭遇集体“反水”。根据最新报导，诺基亚今年第一季度在向渠道商大量压货的情况下，手机出货量有不错表现，录得30%的同比增长。但很多诺基亚机型无法与对手竞争，尤其是在智能手机领域，造成库存高企，渠道商拒绝接受更多现货。结果，诺基亚第二季度在中国的手机出货量同比大跌41%。显然，诺基亚未来在中国还要面临很多困难，至少今年稍晚推出搭载微软最新的Mango操作系统的新产品系列前，道路会很坎坷。

一句话：中移动在3G领域再发力，有助于帮助它从竞争对手手中夺回一些市场份额；诺基亚近期在华业绩仍会下滑，至少其Mango系统新机推出前难改颓势。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Nokia Facing China Backlash After Years of Dominance 诺基亚手机在华“失宠”

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

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China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), under new leadership as long-serving Chairman Wang Jianzhou gets set to retire, is showing signs of new life on several fronts, including some of its best earnings in quite a while. The company reported its second-quarter profit rose 7 percent — a figure that might look boring by anyone else’s standards but marks a sharp improvement for a company that has reported low single-digit growth and even one decline for most of the past three years. (English article) The company credited the growth to revenue from stronger data services traffic, an area that China Mobile had neglected in the last two years after failing to win a 3G license based on globally developed technology and instead being forced to use a homegrown standard. After those two years of denial, China Mobile seems to finally be not only facing its less-than-ideal 3G reality but also embracing it, pushing hard for a deal to develop and offer a version of Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone based on its homegrown 3G standard. After welcoming Apple’s COO Tim Cook to its Beijing headquarters in June as part of those talks (previous post), China Mobile disclosed last week that none other than Apple chief Steve Jobs himself has joined the negotiations, indicating a deal is likely in the next 1-2 months and the company could offer its own 3G iPhones by the end of the year. Wang is also keeping up China Mobile’s pressure on the telecoms regulator to issue 4G licenses sooner rather than later, saying the company’s 4G trial networks in 6 major Chinese cities could be ready for commercialization by next year. (Chinese article) The commercial launch of such 4G service, which uses more reliable technology than China Mobile’s 3G network, would bring even more momentum back to China Mobile at the expense of smaller rivals China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), and if all goes according to plan I could easily see China Mobile returning to double-digit profit growth as soon as the end of this year.

Bottom line: China Mobile is rapidly regaining  momentum under its new leadership, and could easily return to double-digit profit growth by the end of this year.

中国移动(0941.HK)董事长王建宙即将退休，在新领导层带领下，中移动在各方面显露出新成长迹象，包括近期财报表现出色。中移动财报显示，其第二季度利润同比增长约7%，这在其它公司看来或许表现平平，但过去三年中多数时候，中移动一直以个位数低幅增长，甚至出现一次亏损，因此这一增幅标志着其经营状况大幅改观。中移动将此归功于数据服务流量增加，中移动在两年前的3G牌照颁发中仅取得中国自主研发的TD-SCDMA标准後，一直未对数据服务领域给予重视。两年之後，中移动似乎终于面对并接受其差强人意的3G现实并积极应对，正努力争取达成协议，提供基于TD-SCDMA标准的苹果(AAPL.O)iPhone。苹果首席运营官库克（Tim Cook）6月到访中移动北京总部谈判，中移动上周披露，苹果首席执行官乔布斯亲自参与谈判，表明协议或在1-2个月内完成，中移动年底前或推出TD-SCDMA版3G iPhone。王建宙还将继续敦促工信部尽早发放4G牌照，称中移动在六大城市的TD-LTE试点网络预计明年可以实现商用。由于中国移动的4G技术比现有的3G技术可靠，服务商用化启动，4G的商用将对中移动更为有利，但代价是牺牲中国联通(0762.HK, CHU.N)和中国电信(0728.HK, CHA.N)等规模较小的竞争对手，如果一切依中移动的计划推进，我认为，中移动在年底前将轻而易举地恢复利润两位数增长。

一句话：中国移动在新管理层带领下，将迅速夺回市场份额，年底前将轻而易举重返利润两位数增长。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

◙ Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

China Mobile: New iPhone Steps as Wang Exit Moves Closer 中移动与苹果接近达成协议

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After years of stagnanation under charismatic but otherwise uninspired longtime Chairman Wang Jianzhou, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) seems to finally be regaining some of its long-lost excitement with buzz of Wang’s imminent departure and the signing of a new deal to sell Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) popular iPhone. In the latest development on the Apple front, Chinese media are reporting that China Mobile’s Beijing subsidiary has quietly added the iPhone 4 to the list of models it will support for international roaming plans. (Chinese article) While use of unauthorized iPhones on China Mobile’s 2G network has been common ever since the iPhone first debuted, this official support for Apple could indicate that China Mobile may be very close to striking a deal to offer official iPhone service that can run on its 3G network using homegrown Chinese technology. The company announced last year it was in such talks with Apple, and a low-key visit to its headquarters in June by Apple COO Tim Cook fueled speculation that a deal could be near. (previous post) The talk alone has helped China Mobile’s languishing stock to regain some of the momentum it has lost over the last few years to more nimble rivals China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA) and China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU), which also have the advantage of using better technology in their 3G networks. Adding to the growing excitement around China Mobile’s “rebirth”, Chinese media are reporting that Xi Guohua, who recently took over the role of secretary of China Mobile’s state-run parent from Wang Jianzhou (previous post), has now assumed the title of vice chairman at the listed company as well. (Chinese article) Xi’s rapid rise, coupled with last year’s elevation of another up-and-comer, Li Yue, to president of the listed China Mobile, seem to indicate that Wang’s departure from the company could be imminent, bringing in much-needed new blood and fresh ideas to the top of this cash-rich but otherwise stagnant telecoms giant.

Bottom line: China Mobile’s imminent arrival of top new leadership and an iPhone deal will breath new life into the company’s business and also its stock, following years of stagnation.

中国移动<0941.HK> <CHL.N>在经历了多年发展迟滞後似乎终於将出现一些可喜的变化，有传言称，王建宙即将离任，且中移动将与苹果<AAPL.O>签署销售iPhone手机的协议。关於中移动与苹果的最新合作进展，据中国媒体报导，北京移动悄然将iPhone 4列入了促销活动范围。尽管自iPhone上市以来，在中移动2G网络上使用未被授权的iPhone手机相当普遍，但这种对苹果手机的正式支持或许意味着，中移动与苹果可能接近达成协议，在其3G网络上提供iPhone服务。中移动去年曾宣布，公司正与苹果公司就相关合作进行谈判，而苹果首席运营官库克(Tim Cook)6月份低调访问中移动总部的消息也加剧了这一传闻。仅传言本身就帮助中移动疲软的股价重获动力，中移动在过去几年的增长势头不及中国联通< 0762.HK><CHU.N>和中国电信<0728.HK><CHA.N>。另外，据中国媒体报导，刚接任中移动母公司党组书记不久的奚国华已被任命为中移动上市公司副董事长。奚国华的快速晋升以及去年升任中移动上市公司总裁李跃的提升似乎说明，王建宙可能即将离任，这将为中移动高层带来亟需的新鲜血液和想法。

一句话：经过数年的发展迟滞後，中移动即将出现的高层变动以及与苹果的协议将为该公司业务和股价带来新的活力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

Telecoms Regulator Shifts Tone on 4G 电信监管者就4G牌照发放转变口风

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After saying on several occasions earlier this year that 4G licenses won’t be issued for at least the next 2-3 years, China’s telecoms regulator is subtly shifting its message, no doubt under heavy pressure from China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), which would like to see such licenses issued sooner rather than later. Chinese media are now quoting an official from the regulator at an event this week saying that 4G licenses will be awarded when the technology is “mature.” (Chinese article) He then goes on to say how China Mobile has launched expanded trials for its 4G standard, TD-LTE, in six major cities, and that results so far have been promising. I sense a definite shift in this quote from the ministry’s previous stance, in which it indicated it wanted to wait for new 3G systems launched two years ago by the country’s 3 telcos, China Mobile, China Unicom (HKEx: 762; NYSE: CHU) and China Telecom (HKEx: 728; NYSE: CHA), to gain traction before awarding 4G licenses. Industry watchers will know that China Mobile has been rapidly losing share in the 3G market after being forced to use a homegrown wireless standard, TD-SCDMA, that lacks maturity and a wide range of smartphones to make it attractive to most consumers. It has been lobbying hard for the regulator to let it roll out a 4G system, based on more widely used technology, and these latest comments seem to indicate the regulator might issue a 4G license to China Mobile first if it feels TD-LTE is ready for commercialization. If that happens, I could see China Mobile receiving a 4G license in as little as a year from now, which could provide a boon to telecoms equipment makers like Ericsson (Stockholm: ERICb), Huawei, ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Alcatel Lucent (Paris: ALU), and could help China Mobile regain some of the momentum it has lost to Unicom and China Telecom.

Bottom line: A subtle shift in comments from the telecoms regulator indicate a softening stance toward the issuance of 4G licenses, paving the way for China Mobile to get one such license in as little as a year.

今年早些时候，中国电信监管部门多次表示，至少在未来2-3年内不会发放4G牌照，但现在其口风出现微妙的变化，无疑是受到中国移动<0941.HK>的压力。该公司希望能早点发放4G牌照。  中国媒体援引监管部门一官员在本周一次活动上的话报导称，4G牌照何时发放取决於技术的成熟度。接着他还介绍了在中国六大城市开展的TD-LTE规模试验，并表示测试效果良好。我从这名官员的发言中察觉到工信部立场与此前相比发生了变化。之前工信部曾表示，希望中国三大移动运营商中国移动、中国联通<CHU.N>和中国电信<CHA.N>推出的3G网络强化後再发放4G牌照。业内观察者将会注意到，因使用中国自己的TD-SCDMA无线网络标准，中移动在中国3G市场的份额正迅速流失。中国移动一直在努力游说工信部，允许其推出4G系统，工信部官员近期言论似乎暗示，如果该部觉得TD-LTE商业化时机成熟，或会首先向中国移动发放4G牌照。如果是这种情况，我认为，中国移动最短在一年内就可拿到4G牌照，这对爱立信<ERICb.ST>、华为、中兴通讯<000063.SZ><0763.HK>和阿尔卡特-朗讯（Alcatel-Lucent）<ALUA.PA>等电信设备制造商将是利好，并可能有助於中国移动夺回中国联通和中国电信抢走的部分市场份额。

一句话：工信部官员口风的微妙转变暗示，该部在4G牌照发放问题上的立场软化，中国移动有望最短在一年内获得4G牌照。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Goldman Joins List of TD-LTE Boosters 高盛加入支持TD-LTE网络阵营

◙ China Mobile: Chairman Wang Preparing to Leave? 中国移动：王建宙董事长要退休？

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动