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Apple Prepares to Bring Anti-Android Drive to China 苹果计划在华反击Android

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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) has taken the interesting step of getting 40 new patents in China, in what looks like an opening move that could ultimately see it target the growing number of Chinese cellphone makers that use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular Android cellphone operating system. (English article) The report in the China Daily focuses on the more obvious potential aims of the patents, such as closing a slew of bogus Apple stores that have sprung up in China as Apple’s sales have soared to surpass those of leading PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992). (previous post) But the article points out the new patents also cover Apple’s popular user-friendly smartphone operating system (OS), which has been largely responsible for the huge boom in its iPhone and smartphone sales in general over the last 3 years. Apple has argued that Google’s free Android OS, which has been embraced by many of the world’s top cellphone makers, is a copycat of its own OS, and has successfully sued to halt the sale of popular Android-based smartphones and tablet PCs from Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498) and Korea’s Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Based on that behavior, this new round of patent filings in China looks like Apple is preparing to sue Chinese smartphone makers like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo and TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618; Shenzhen: 000100), which all use Android. ZTE in particular could be at big risk, as its recent drive to become a global leader in smartphones costing as little as $100 each (previous post) relies heavily on Android. If Apple does file such a lawsuit, it will be interesting to see how China’s courts react as obviously any ruling in Apple’s favor could deal a big blow to the domestic industry. But anyone industry watchers should also note that Chinese courts don’t appear to have any power to make temporary rulings like judges do in the US, meaning any enforcement action can only occur after a judge makes a final decision — a process that could take months or even a year. Still, considering Apple’s success so far in the US against giants like Samsung and HTC, Chinese smartphone makers would be well advised to start drawing up plans for new Android alternatives if and when Apple moves its anti-Android battle to China.

Bottom line: Apple’s new round of patents in China look like the prelude to lawsuits against domestic smartphone makers like ZTE, which rely heavily on Google’s free Android operating system.

苹果(AAPL.O)在华成功申请了40项新专利，其终极目标看似是对采用谷歌(GOOG.O)Android系统的中国手机商亮剑的第一步。《中国日报》的报导侧重苹果旨在专利维权的一面，例如关闭苹果山寨零售店等。由于苹果电脑在华销量大涨，超过PC领军企业联想(0992.HK)，苹果山寨店如雨後春笋般涌现。但文章指出，苹果新申请的专利还包括其界面友好的智能手机操作系统(OS)，这一操作系统是过去三年推动iPhone和智能手机销量整体上升的重要原因。苹果辩称，全球许多顶级手机商采用的谷歌免费提供的Android系统，是抄袭苹果OS系统的设计。苹果还在宏达电(HTC)(2498.TW)和三星(005930.KS)专利侵权案中胜诉，成功迫使两家公司的Android智能手机和平板电脑暂停销售。鉴于此举，苹果在华新一轮的专利申请，看似将准备起诉使用Android系统的中国智能手机制造商，例如中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想和TCL通讯(2618.HK)。中兴通讯面临的风险尤其大，因为其近期力争成为售价低至100美元的智能手机的全球领军企业，该公司的这一计划严重依赖Anroid系统。如果苹果提出侵权诉讼，中国法院如何回应是件有趣的事情，因为任何明显有利于苹果的判决，都将重创中国手机产业。但业内观察者也指出，中国法庭进行终裁後才会有执行举措，而法庭裁判过程往往耗时数月甚至一年。话说回来，考虑到苹果在美胜诉三星和宏达电侵权，中国智能手机商最好早做打算，制定替代Android的新计划，以防苹果万一在华打响反击Android战役。

一句话：苹果在华新一轮专利申请，看似是起诉中兴通讯等中国智能手机商的前奏，这些本土企业严重依赖谷歌免费提供的Android操作系统。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

Huawei, Lenovo Look to Foreign Advisors in Westward Drive

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There’s a couple of interesting new hires out there from Chinese tech firms Huawei and Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which are both clearly aimed at boosting their global operations. Whether either will succeed is a different matter, though both look like good ideas to me at first glance. First Huawei, which has hired IBM (NYSE: IBM) as a brand strategy consultant for its push into tablet PCs, smartphones and cloud computing. (English article) Like its smaller rival ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Huawei wants to expand into theses 3 new areas as its growth slows in its core business of making telecoms networking equipment. IBM has a strong record as a brand builder, retaining its image as a premier tech name even after selling its flagship PC business in 2005. Huawei is now in a similar situation to IBM, wanting to transition from a brand known mostly to industry people to a more mainstream consumer name. I’m sure it’s paying IBM big bucks to help in this transition, and that money should be well spent if it can make good cellphones and tablet PCs, which still remains to be seen. As to Lenovo, the company has hired a new advisor in the form of Gianfranco Lanci, who many will remember as the man behind Acer’s (Taipei: 2353) recent rise to become the world’s second biggest PC seller. (Chinese article) Lanci, who correctly predicted the move to laptop computing from traditional desktops, abruptly left Acer earlier this year (previous post) as it became clear the company was running into trouble from relying too heavily on cheap computers and failing to lead in new categories like smartphones and tablet PCs. Still, I like Lanci for his previous foresight and savvy marketing, and think he could be a strong advisor for Lenovo in his home base of Europe. If this relationship works out well, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lanci eventually join Lenovo in an executive position, perhaps even C-level.

Bottom line: The hiring of top western names by Huawei and Lenovo look like smart moves by both companies for their drives into Western markets.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Huawei, ZTE Ratchet Up Western PR Offensives 华为和中兴加紧西方公关战

◙ Acer Takes a Hit With Lanci Leaving 宏基痛失兰奇

◙ ZTE Gambles With Smartphone Share Grab 中兴通讯押注智能手机业务

HP’s Mobile OS Looks Hot for Lenovo, HTC 联想和HTC似将发动惠普资产竞购战

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New signals coming from Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Taiwan smartphone maker HTC (Taipei: 2498) indicate that both are strongly considering bids in the upcoming auction of Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) PC business, which also happens to include its much smaller smartphone unit. But whereas HTC’s potential bid looks smart, Lenovo’s apparent position needs some serious rethinking. Let’s start with the simpler case of HTC, whose early bet on smartphones has made it an overnight sensation, propelling it past a struggling Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V) earlier this year in terms of market value. (previous post) New comments from HTC’s chairman indicate the company may try to acquire its own smartphone operating system (OS), following Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) recent plan to buy Motorola’s (NYSE: MMI) cellphone business which has upset companies like HTC that use Google’s Android OS. (Chinese article) A very obvious candidate for HTC would be HP’s smartphone OS, which HP acquired last year when it purchased smartphone pioneer Palm. Industry watchers know that Palm’s OS is generally well regarded but has failed to gain much momentum due to lack of a strong promoter. Now let’s look at Lenovo, whose talkative Chairman Liu Chuanzhi has said he aims to become the world’s second largest PC seller by the end of this year, displacing both Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Acer (Taipei: 2353). (Chinese article) This kind of bullish comment, typical of Liu, is just the latest indication that he plans to make a bid for HP’s PC business in the near future. I previously advised that such a bid would be a bad move due to the complexity of such a deal (previous post) and I still think such a bid would be difficult for Lenovo at best, and a disaster at worst. Instead, Lenovo should also focus on HP’s smartphone business, which would be much easier to digest and has big potential to complement its existing cellphone and PC businesses. Some will remember that Lenovo previously launched a bid for Palm last year that ultimately failed, and it should seriously consider making another try as HP prepares to sell its PC and cellphone assets.

Bottom line: A bidding war could be brewing for HP’s smartphone assets following recent comments from HTC, with Lenovo possibly joining the hunt.

联想(0992.HK)和HTC(2498.TW)都发出最新信号，暗示有强烈意愿收购惠普(HPQ.N)将拍卖的个人电脑业务。惠普拟出售的资产碰巧也包括规模较小的智能手机业务。HTC的收购意向似乎是明智的选择，但是联想却需要对自己的立场再认真考虑一番。让我们先看看情况较简单的HTC。此前HTC押注智能手机曾经轰动一时，促使其市值今年稍早超越深陷挣扎的诺基亚(NOK1V.HE)。HTC董事长最近的讲话暗示，该公司可能尝试通过收购拥有自己的智能手机操作系统。此前谷歌(GOOG.O)宣布计划收购摩托罗拉的手机业务，令HTC等使用谷歌安卓系统的公司感到不安。惠普去年收购Palm从而获得自己的智能手机操作系统，这对HTC明显是个不错的选择。行业观察人士都知道，Palm的操作系统获得较高认可，但因缺乏强劲的推动者，没有获得太多成长势头。接下来再看看联想。联想集团董事局主席柳传志曾表示，打算今年年底前成为全球第二大个人电脑销售商，战胜戴尔(DELL.O)和宏基(2353.TW)。此番言论暗示，他计划在近期竞购惠普的个人电脑业务。我此前曾说过，出于对交易复杂性的考虑，我认为这个收购计划对联想不是个好主意。我仍然认为，从好的方面来说这宗交易对联想很困难，最坏结果则是一场灾难。相反，联想应该聚焦惠普的智能手机业务，这更容易消化吸收，也更有可能对其现有的手机和个人电脑业务构成补充。有人会记得联想去年曾发起对Palm的收购，最终以失败告终。在这次惠普出售个人电脑和手机资产的当口，联想对作出再次尝试应该三思而後行。

一句话：HTC高管最近讲话之後，针对惠普手机资产的一场竞购战可能正在酝酿之中，联想可能参加竞购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

Baidu-Dell OS Tie Up: Symbolic But Empty 百度戴尔联手推手机 象征意义大于实质

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Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.

Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.

百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台，尽管许多人猜测，易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争，但我们目前知道，至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻，不妨告诉你吧，这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商，近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎，并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作，我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟，谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持，而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会，不再提出批评意见，我想说，百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择，这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明，与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比，中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品，所以，或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名，事实上，我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功，百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作，中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单，证明易平台可靠且人性化，我认为，百度有50%的机率，占据移动平台市场较大份额，这一比例或高达15-20%。

一句话：百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质，是其推广易平台的第一步，百度需要与更多大型手机商合作，才有望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏

◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度

◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆，寻求多元化

Lenovo Sets Sights on Russia, Style 联想进军俄罗斯市场，研发时尚型PC

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There’s a few interesting news bits out there on Lenovo (HKEx: 992), which sum up its interesting search for direction in a brave new world where its biggest rival, Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is leaving the PC business altogether and its new top rival now appears to be Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). In the first news bit, Chinese media are quoting a Lenovo executive saying his company is on track to become Russia’s largest PC seller in the next two years. (English article) The second bit has Lenovo trying to spiff up its image by announcing a chic new line of ultra-portable laptops, clearly more aimed at developed markets (company announcement), while the third bit cites unnamed sources saying Lenovo’s new game console, the eeDoo, won’t debut on schedule this month for unspecified reasons. (English article) The Russian campaign is clearly a smart and necessary move, as that market, one of the world’s five BRICS, is the kind of place where Lenovo can best leverage its expertise as a emerging specialist and lay the foundation for solid future growth. The new line of ultra-light computers, aimed more at developed markets, is a nod to the future, taking Lenovo head-to-head with Apple, which currently dominates that space, both in terms of chic and ultra-portability. If Lenovo wants to compete in developed markets it will need to make more moves like this, though I personally think this particular campaign will flop. After all, no one associates Lenovo with chic, at least not yet, and it will take more than a few new PC models to change that image. As to the game console business, my response is a resounding “Who cares?” Lenovo clearly wants to diversify its products to compete in as many computing areas as possible,  but the console business is a dying animal that Lenovo should ignore and focus on products with a brighter future.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s campaign to win Russia is a bold and necessary step to confirm its place as the world’s top emerging markets PC maker, but its bid to become a fashion leader looks misguided.

最近有几则关于联想公司的消息耐人寻味，联想看似正在探索公司发展的新方向。随着惠普剥离个人电脑业务，联想新的最大竞争对手似乎换成了苹果。第一则消息称，中国媒体援引联想高管的报导称，联想将努力在两年後成为俄罗斯最大的个人电脑卖家。第二则消息称，联想宣布一系列超级轻薄的笔记本电脑，这明显是瞄准了发达国家市场；联想尝试以此转变公司形象。第三则消息援引未具名的消息人士称，联想的新游戏机eeDoo本月将不会如期上市，但没有透露具体原因。进军俄罗斯显然是明智之举，也很有必要。在俄罗斯市场，联想能够最大限度地发挥自身的专家优势，并为将来的稳步成长打下基础。以发达国家市场为主打的最新系列超轻薄电脑是对未来的试探，将联想推向与苹果正面竞争的舞台，当前，苹果主导这个市场。如果联想希望在发达国家市场竞争，将需要在这方面多做努力，不过我个人认为本次活动将落败。毕竟还没有人，至少现在还没有人将联想和时尚型产品联系到一起。联想需要推出多款新机型来改变这一形象。至于游戏机业务，我的感觉是“谁去关心它？”，联想显然是希望以多元化产品在尽可能多的科技领域投入市场竞争，但是游戏机业务是个夕阳产业，联想应该对其敬而远之，聚焦于具有更光明未来的产品。

一句话：联想希望赢得俄罗斯市场的举动很大胆、也很有必要，是证明其全球最大新兴市场个人电脑生产商地位的重要一步，但公司希望成为流行科技产品行业领导者的努力看似有些误入歧途。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

◙ Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

News Digest: September 2, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on September 2. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ Canadian Solar (Nasdaq: CSIQ), Trina (NYSE: TSL), Suntech (NYSE: STP) to Attend German Solar Show

◙ Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) Ex-China Head Kai-fu Lee Raises $180 Mln for Tech Fund (English article)

◙ Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Gets Glam with Three New Fashion-Forward Ultraportable Laptops (Businesswire)

◙ Paypal (Nasdaq: EBAY) China Applies for Third-Party Payment License (English article)

◙ Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V) in Massive China Layoffs, Some Question Legality (Chinese article)

Lenovo Considers Dangerous HP Computer Bid 联想应慎购惠普PC业务

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Don’t do it! Those are the only words of advice I can offer Lenovo (HKEx: 992) Chairman and founder Liu Chuanzhi, whose latest comments indicate his is weighing a possible bid for the PC assets that global leader Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) is putting up for sale. (Chinese article) Liu, who built Lenovo from a local computer builder into the world’s fourth largest PC brand, was understandably reserved in his remarks to reporters on the subject, but his constant use of the phrase “something to consider” indicates to me that his mind is already moving in the direction of making a bid, an easy conclusion to make in light of his fondness for acquisitions that have included his blockbuster purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) PC business, and its more recent takeover of smaller PC operations in Japan and Germany. (previous post) Liu, if he did make a bid, would clearly be looking to vault his company past Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) and Taiwan’s Acer (Taipei: 2353) to become the world’s top PC player, which this deal would clearly do. But the risks are huge, and it’s not at all clear to me that Lenovo could survive a successful bid, especially as it faces huge new competition from Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) in its home China market that accounts for half of its sales. (previous post) At the top of my list of concerns is the very real possibility that Lenovo would seriously overpay for the HP unit, as it faced strong rival bids from better-funded companies like Samsung (Seoul: 005930), Acer, and perhaps even Dell. But even more important, Lenovo would have an extremely hard time integrating its own business with HP’s, which is already much bigger and far more complex due to the company’s longer history and vast geographic reach. Lenovo might argue its IBM PC purchase has given it valuable experience in such integrations, which is partly true. But let’s also not forget the IBM integration was especially painful for Lenovo, and there’s every reason to believe that HP would be even more painful. If Liu Chuanzhi is smart, he will do his due diligence on HP’s PC business, and quickly decide it’s not worth bidding.

Bottom line: Recent comments from Lenovo’s chairman indicate he may be considering a bid for HP’s PC business — a move that if successful would prove disastrous.

别收购惠普PC业务！这是我给联想(0992.HK)创始人兼董事长柳传志的唯一建议。柳传志的近期评论暗示他正在权衡是否收购惠普(HPQ.N)旗下的PC业务。柳传志把联想从一个本土电脑商打造为全球第四大PC品牌，对记者的这一问题表示了可以理解的保留态度。但我认为，他多次使用“值得考虑”一词表明，他有意参加这次竞购，何况他向来喜欢并购，联想曾收购IBM(IBM.N)的PC业务，近期又收购日本NEC和德国Medion公司的PC业务。如果柳传志竞购惠普PC业务，明显是希望超过戴尔和台湾宏基(2353.TW: 行情)，成为全球第一大PC制造商，该收购案如果成功确实能实现这一点。但联想收购惠普PC业务风险巨大，而且我尚不清楚，联想是否能竞购成功，尤其是联想在中国市场还面临苹果(AAPL.O: 行情)的巨大挑战。我最担忧的是，竞购惠普PC业务时，联想面对三星(005930.KS)、宏基、甚至戴尔等对手的强劲竞标，可能会出价过高。但更重要的是，联想在整合惠普与其自身业务时可能历经艰辛，因为惠普历史悠久、市场更多，所以业务更庞大，也更复杂。联想可能会辩称，收购IBM PC业务为期提供了宝贵经验，一定程度上确实如此。但请不要忘记，联想整合IBM时非常痛苦，我们有理由相信，整合惠普会更痛苦。如果柳传志聪明的话，他应该对惠普PC业务进行独立的尽职调查，并迅速作出惠普PC业务不值得竞购的决定。

一句话：联想董事长柳传志近期评论表示，他可能考虑竞购惠普PC业务，此举若成功，有可能会带来灾难性後果。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Low-Cost Apple iPhone to Bite ZTE, Lenovo 苹果推低端iPhone 冲击中兴和联想

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The rest of the world may be buzzing about Steve Jobs’ announcement that he will retire as CEO of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), but my attention has been captured by a smaller piece of news that Apple may soon enter the low-cost smartphone business. Apple never discusses its future plans, and accordingly this latest piece of news is only gossip so far, citing two knowledgeable sources saying a low-cost version of the iPhone 4 is now being developed to go head-to-head with a segment of the market now dominated by phones running on Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. (English article) If true, such a development could provide not only headaches for Google and Android, but also for the growing field of Chinese smartphone makers that have relied on the free operating system to develop low-cost models favored not only in developing markets like China, but also by cost-conscious consumers in developed  markets like the US and Western Europe. Up-and-comer ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) would be most vulnerable to such a move by Apple, having staked its future on grabbing global market share with its low-cost Android based smartphones. Other companies that look vulnerable include Lenovo (HKEx: 992), whose young smartphone initiative is already sputtering just a year after its launch, and ZTE rival Huawei, which is also trying to make a splash with smartphones as growth for its older telecoms equipment business starts to slow. Such a move by Apple could also hit the prospects of TCL Communications (HKEx: 2618), whose cellphone business has posted a strong comeback in the last year after taking a serious hit after it acquired money-losing assets from Alcatel (Paris: ALUA) six years ago. I actually know the Reuters reporters who wrote the Apple low-cost iPhone story, and both are quite reliable so I’m fairly confident it’s only a matter of time before low-end iPhones hit the market. If and when that happens, look for the Chinese smartphone makers to suffer big headaches as a result.

Bottom line: Apple’s launch of a low-end iPhone could further cement its dominance in the global smartphone market, at the expense of Chinese players like ZTE, Lenovo and Huawei.

当人们热议乔布斯辞去苹果(AAPL.O)首席执行官（CEO）职务时，我关注的新闻是，苹果或即将打入低端智能手机市场。苹果从不讨论其未来计划，但两名消息人士透露，苹果正在研发低端版iPhone 4，将与谷歌(GOOG.O)Android操作系统手机占据的一部分市场进行正面交锋。尽管这还只是传闻，但如果消息属实，这一研发不仅让谷歌和Android业者头痛，也会让中国智能手机制造商苦不堪言。後者依赖免费的Android操作系统，研发低成本机型，这些低端机型不仅受到中国等发展中国家青睐，在美国和西欧等发达市场，也受到节俭消费者的欢迎。苹果此举或让中兴通讯(0763.HK)(000063.SZ)最“受伤”。中兴将公司未来押宝在利用低端Android智能手机掠夺全球市场的战略上。其它容易受创的公司包括联想(0992.HK)和华为。联想启动仅一年的智能手机项目已取得不俗成效，华为则因电信设备业务增长放缓，同样试图推智能手机业务提振业绩。苹果推低端版iPhone也会对TCL通讯(2618.HK)发展造成影响，TCL通讯六年前收购阿尔卡特-朗讯(ALUA.PA)亏损的手机资产後一度严重受创，但去年该部门业绩强势反弹。我认识报导苹果可能推低端版iPhone手机消息的两位路透记者，他们的消息都很可靠，所以我很有理由相信，该款手机上市只是时间问题。如果苹果发布低端版iPhone 4，我预计将让中国智能手机商极为头痛。

一句话：苹果推出低端版iPhone，或进一步巩固其全球智能手机市场主导地位，代价则是中兴通讯、联想和华为等中国手机制造商受到冲击。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ China Mobile Nears iPhone Deal, Continues 4G Press 中移动iPhone协议近尾声 加紧4G攻势

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

China Takes Global PC Crown – But Does It Matter? 中国PC出货全球居冠 但有何意义?

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The inevitable as finally happened, as China overtook the US in the second quarter of this year to become the world’s biggest PC market both in terms of unit sales and revenue, according to new data from IDC. (English announcement) The only question is: what does it mean and does the PC element really matter,  as PCs are showing signs of becoming a sort of high-tech dinosaur, being rapidly replaced by lighter, more adaptable devices like smartphones and tablets computers. But first the data. According to IDC, PC makers shipped 18.5 million computers worth $11.9 billion to China in the second quarter, versus 17.7 million units worth $11.7 billion for the US. For anyone who’s doing the math, you can see that the average PC sold in China cost around $643, versus $661 for the US, meaning the difference in price wasn’t all that big for the two markets. But at the end of the day, the PC is probably a dying breed and will ultimately be replaced by an array of more specialized, portable devices much the way that desktop PCs have become all but obsolete due to the rise of laptops. As that happens, China will undoubtedly become a leader in many new product categories, at least in terms of sales, simply due to the sheer size of its market, much the way that it has in terms of Internet users and cellphone subscribers. But the recent rise of Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), which overtook Lenovo (HKEx: 992) in terms of overall China sales (previous post), shows that China’s market for computing devices will become much more competitive as the equation changes, with global players fighting much more aggressively for a piece of this huge market. Hewlett-Packard’s (NYSE: HPQ) planned sale of its PC business will also throw an interesting new element into this  equation, providing the buyer of that business with a strong launch pad to take an important piece of this fast-growing market.

Bottom line: China’s emergence as the world’s biggest PC market was inevitable due to its size, bringing a new dynamic as both domestic and international players fight for a bigger piece of the pie.

该来的终究来了。据IDC最新数据，中国今年第二季度无论是从出货额上还是出货量上均超过美国，成为全球最大的个人电脑（PC）市场。唯一的问题是：这有 何意义？PC真的重要吗？当今，PC正在某种程度上变成高科技恐龙，被更轻、更便捷的设备如智能手机与平板电脑等迅速替代。不过，还是先来说数据。根据IDC的数字，中国第二季度PC出货量达1,850万台，发货额共计119亿美元；相比之下，美国第二季PC发货量1,770 万台，发货额117亿美元。简单计算一下，在中国每台PC的平均售价约为643美元，美国则为661美元，也就是说在两个国家PC售价差别不大。但是归根到底，PC可能是垂死的一个产品系，最终会被一系列更加专业、便于携带的设备取代，正如目前由于笔记本电脑的崛起，台式机已经江河日下一样。按此形势，中国必定在很多类新产品上都是领头羊，至少在销量上会这样，原因仅仅在于中国市场规模实在是太大了，正如现在中国互联网用户与手机用户全球排名第一一样。但是苹果公司(AAPL.O)近期发威，最近在华整体销量超过本土品牌联想(0992.HK)，显示随着市场形势的改变，中国电脑类市场竞争还会更加激烈，国际品牌将会更加努力争取份额。惠普(HPQ.N)计划出售其PC业务，也会为这个变化的形式中加入新的元素，为买家冲击中国市场提供一个很好的启动基础。

一句话：中国市场规模巨大，成为全球最大PC市场是自然而然、不可避免的结果，在国内外企业竞争这块大蛋糕之际，为他们加入新的动力。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Lenovo’s LePad: Finally a Game Plan That Could Work 联想乐Pad：终於拿出了像样的东西

◙ Acer and Dell: One Cuts, One Pastes 宏基裁人、戴尔建厂

Lenovo Discovers the Right Formula a Little Too Late 联想再次“晚一步”

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Leading Chinese PC maker Lenovo (HKEx: 992) has finally discovered a winning formula, beating market expectations with a profit that doubled in its latest fiscal quarter on the back of strong sales in its core emerging markets business. (company announcement) Unfortunately for Lenovo, however, it has discovered the formula just a little too late, underscoring its record for late arrivals to new product areas and boding poorly for its future. The company boasted that six years after its landmark purchase of IBM’s (NYSE: IBM) struggling PC business, it has finally managed to turn that unit around and posted a $77 million profit for its developed markets business in the quarter ended June 30. But it was less boastful about the fact that Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), in a much shorter period, has come from nowhere to overtake it in terms of revenue in its home China market, which accounts for about half of Lenovo’s sales. (previous post) The company was also more muted on its recently launched smartphone and tablet PC offerings, the LePhone and LePad, which are clearly two important products of the future as people move away from traditional laptops and desktop models towards lighter, more mobile computing. According to calculations in one Chinese meida report, the company has sold just over 700,000 LePhones in the last 3 quarters in China (Chinese article), and the company itself admitted to an anemic 80,000 LePads sold in the latest quarter. (English article) That compares with Apple’s estimated 1 million iPads sold in China in the latest quarter alone, although obviously Apple has a head start there. Still, considering Lenovo’s weak performance for these key new products in its own home market, where it has numerous advantages over Apple, its latest seemingly strong results point to strong headwinds in the future, both at home and abroad.

Bottom line: Lenovo’s strong profit in its latest quarterly results masks serious weakness in the key future growth areas of smartphones and tablet PCs.

中国电脑巨头联想(0992.HK)终于发现了制胜法宝，公布其季度净利超乎预期地增长一倍，这主要得益于其核心的新兴市场业务强劲。但不幸的是，联想发现这个法宝的时机有点太晚了，正如联想在进军新产品领域方面常常都会晚一步，这对未来可不是个好兆头。联想收购IBM个人电脑(PC)业务已六年，终于已扭亏为盈，在截至6月30日的会计年度，联想成熟市场业务贡献了7,700万美元的利润，但这与苹果相比就不值一提了。苹果在比这短得多的时间里，在中国市场几乎从零开始，在该市场销售已经超过联想。此外，联想最近推出的智能手机和平板电脑，市场反响平平，而这两个产品代表着未来发展方向。据中国媒体报导，联想在过去三个季度中乐Phone销量仅略超出70万支，而联想也表示上季乐Pad仅卖出8万台。与之形成鲜明对比的是，单是上季苹果iPad在中国销量就达到100万台，当然苹果在平板电脑市场是占了先机的。中国是联想的本土市场，本应享有天时地利，其新产品表现却远远不及苹果，因此尽管其最新季度财报貌似强劲，未来不管在国内市场，还是国际市场，都还面临沉重压力。

一句话：联想最新季度获利强劲，但千万别忽略其在智能手机和平板电脑领域的薄弱表现。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

◙ Lenovo-NEC: Let the Defections Begin 联想与NEC结盟注定失败

◙ Lenovo Makes Strange Move Into Germany 联想进军德国令人摸不着头脑

Apple on a China Roll, Ambushing Nokia, Lenovo 苹果伏击诺基亚和联想 在华发展势如破竹

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What a difference a couple of years makes. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), a tiny player in China as little as two years ago, has suddenly become a new dominant force in both China’s computing and cellphone scene, taking on traditional market leaders Lenovo (HKEx: 992) and Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V.HE) in their respective spaces. The US maker of wildly popular iPhone cellphones and iPad tablet PCs officially surpassed Lenovo in terms of total China sales in the quarter through June (English article), while it also picked up share on Nokia, whose China sales plunged 41 percent in the first quarter of 2011, according to research firm Gartner (English article). At this point, Apple looks nearly unstoppable in China, with companies scrambling to import more iPads to meet ever-growing demand and the country’s leading mobile carrier, China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) on the cusp of signing a landmark deal to offer iPhones in China that will run on its 3G network. The pirates have been making iPhone and iPad look-alikes for a while now, and even retailers are getting in on the action with a recent headline-making knock-off Apple store opening up in southwestern Yunnan province. (English article) Apple’s sudden surge in China, the world’s biggest cellphone market by subscribers and the second biggest PC market, must be coming as a shock to both Lenovo and Nokia, neither of which has strong offerings in the smartphone or tablet PC space to fend off the attack. If Apple continues to surge, which seems likely, look for Nokia and especially Lenovo to see their China business start to weaken in the next 1-2 years as each looks on powerlessly at China’s new fascination with this innovative US tech giant.

Bottom line: Apple’s sudden surge in China will spell headaches in the next 1-2 years for Lenovo and Nokia, which each lack strong offerings to counter popular iPhones and iPads.

真是三十年河东三十年河西！两年前在中国还势单力薄的苹果公司(AAPL.O: 行情)突然间成了中国电脑和手机行业新的主导力量，向传统的市场领头羊联想(0992.HK: 行情)和诺基亚(NOK1V.HE: 行情)分别发起了挑战。截至六月份的第二季度，苹果在华电脑总销量正式超过联想，同时还夺取了诺基亚的市场份额。据市场研究公司Gartner的数据，诺基亚2011年第一季度在中国的销量骤降41%。目前，苹果在中国的发展势如破竹，各大公司竞相争取进口更多的iPad，以满足中国不断增加的需求。中国移动(0941.HK: 行情)(CHL.N: 行情)接近签署一项具有里程碑意义的协议，在华引进使用其3G网络的iPhone手机。而盗版厂商们则一直在生产与iPhone和iPad酷似的电子产品，就连零售商也加入了“山寨”行列，云南昆明的“高仿真”苹果零售店就是典型案例。苹果在中国的突然崛起无疑令联想和诺基亚深为震惊，而後两者在智能手机和平板电脑领域均无强势产品可以进行反击。如果苹果继续高歌奋进，且这一趋势似乎也很有可能，诺基亚，尤其是联想未来1-2年在中国的业务肯定会缩水，因两者面对中国人对苹果产品的迷恋却无能为力。

一句话：苹果在中国的突然崛起会在未来1-2年内让联想和诺基亚头疼不已，因後两者均缺少可以抗衡iPhone和iPad的强势产品。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Apple’s COO Comes Calling on China Mobile 苹果首席运营官造访中移动

◙ Apple Takes A Second Look at China for iPad 2 苹果重新考虑中国市场

◙ Unicom Takes on Apple, Google, Microsoft … I Don’t Think So 联通想挑战苹果、谷歌、微软……？我不看好