Well, it seems we now know at least one company that’s going to adopt Baidu’s (Nasdaq: BIDU) new mobile operating system, which it launched with fanfare last week (previous post) even as many wondered how the new OS would compete with far more popular rival products from Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT). For those who haven’t read the headlines, the answer is Dell (Nasdaq: DELL), once the world’s largest PC maker which has struggled in recent years amid fierce competition and a rapidly morphing new array of computing products constantly coming out. (English article; Chinese article) Many observers were skeptical about this new tie-up, and I’ll admit that I am one of them. After all, Google’s Android, Apple’s mobile OS and Microsoft’s Mango are all backed by companies with far more resources, and Baidu’s own history at new product development isn’t very strong. But I’ll also take this rare opportunity to break with the critics and say that Baidu’s new OS at least offers an interesting China-specific alternative to the other products on the market, as well as special access to Baidu’s market-leading search technology. Baidu has already proven that Chinese Web surfers do prefer a China-specific product to a one-size-fits-all approach like Google’s or Yahoo’s (Nasdaq: YHOO), so perhaps the same will be true for mobile Web surfing. Still, Dell is hardly a big name in the mobile Internet space, and, in fact, I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone here in China using a Dell brand mobile phone or tablet PC. To succeed, Baidu will have to sign up some bigger cellphone makers in the next few months, with domestic names like ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), Lenovo (HKEx: 992), TCL (Shenzhen 000100) and Huawei looking like the best candidates. If it can do that, and if its mobile OS proves reliable and user friendly, I would give it as high as a 50 percent chance of gaining a significant portion — perhaps up to 15 or 20 percent — of China’s mobile OS market.
Bottom line: Baidu’s tie up with Dell is a symbolic but largely empty first step to promote its new mobile OS, and it will need to sign up more major cellphone makers for a chance at success.
百度(BIDU.O)上周推出易百度移动平台,尽管许多人猜测,易平台如何与更受欢迎的谷歌(GOOG.O)、苹果(AAPL.O)和微软(MSFT.O)的同类产品竞争,但我们目前知道,至少有一家公司将使用易平台。如果你还没看今天的头条新闻,不妨告诉你吧,这家公司是戴尔(DELL.O)。戴尔曾是世界第一大PC制造商,近些年在激烈的竞争中苦苦挣扎,并面临如雨後春笋般涌现的电脑类新产品的挑战。许多观察人士质疑百度和戴尔的合作,我承认我就是其中一个。毕竟,谷歌Android、苹果OS和微软Mango得到拥有更多资源的公司的支持,而百度历来新产品研发记录并不太好。但我也愿意借这次罕见的机会,不再提出批评意见,我想说,百度易平台至少可以提供一个有中国特色的有趣选择,这也是搭载百度搜索技术的特殊途径。百度已经证明,与谷歌或雅虎(YHOO.O)“一刀切”的产品相比,中国网民确实更青睐有中国特色的产品,所以,或许这种情况也适用于手机上网。但戴尔在手机互联网领域并不知名,事实上,我在中国没见过有人用戴尔手机或平板电脑。若想成功,百度未来数月应与一些更大的手机商合作,中兴通讯(000063.SZ; 0763.HK)、联想(0992.HK)、TCL (000100.SZ)和华为等国内手机商看似是最佳选择。如果百度能与这些手机商签单,证明易平台可靠且人性化,我认为,百度有50%的机率,占据移动平台市场较大份额,这一比例或高达15-20%。
一句话:百度与戴尔联手的象征意义大于实质,是其推广易平台的第一步,百度需要与更多大型手机商合作,才有望取得成功。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Baidu Mobile OS, Homepage Revamp Look Like Dicey Bets 百度新举措旨在冒险一搏
◙ Baidu Comes Under Government Fire 政府“修理”百度
◙ Baidu Seeks Diversification in Tudou Talks 百度求购土豆,寻求多元化