Tag Archives: Qihoo

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Baidu, Sina in Smart Cellphone Tie-Ups 百度、新浪在智能手机领域的合作

After witnessing a steady stream of puzzling moves into the smartphone space by Internet companies in recent months, I’m happy to say I’m finally seeing 2 new moves that I like by sector leaders Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Sina (Nasdaq: SINA). The rush into smartphones has seen many major Internet firms launch their own new products in the last 12 months, from Internet giant Tencent (HKEx: 700) to e-commerce giant Alibaba, security software specialist Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) and game operator Shanda. Clearly these companies are trying to grab a share of the fast-growing mobile Internet market, which could easily overtake traditional desktop web surfing in just a few years with the explosion of 3G services and smartphones. But rather than partner with strong players using existing mobile platforms, many of these new initiatives are pairing with less experienced cellphone makers like home electronics giants Haier and Changhong, meaning their chances of success are very limited. That’s why I like these 2 new deals with Baidu and Sina, which will see each company partner with a strong smartphone player in a very targeted way rather than trying to develop completely new models. In Baidu’s case, China’s leading search engine is reportedly close to a deal that will see its mobile search engines pre-installed on Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) wildly popular iPhones sold in China. (English article) Meantime, Sina has signed a deal that will see its popular Weibo microblogging service featured prominently on the home screen of a second-generation smartphone model developed for China by Taiwan’s HTC (Taipei: 2498), another strong handset maker. (Chinese article) Let’s look quickly at the Apple-Baidu deal first, as that’s the bigger of the 2 and looks like a smart move for both companies. Apple’s iPhones are quite popular in China, but their high price tag means the models now command a much smaller portion of the market than cheaper smartphones using Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) free Android operating system. So this move should help Apple to gain some share by providing easier access to China’s most popular search engine. From Baidu’s perspective, inclusion  of its search engine on iPhones should help it gain more dominance in the mobile Internet, an area it doesn’t dominate nearly as much as it does for traditional desktop web searching. The Sina-HTC tie-up should also benefit both of its partners, giving Sina greater exposure for Weibo as it tries to monetize the popular microblogging service in the run-up to an eventual IPO. The tie-up could also provide a sales lift for HTC, whose fortunes have sputtered recently, as Weibo enthusiasts might be more likely to buy this new smartphone model. I hope we see more tie-ups like this in the months ahead, as they look like smart ways to gain share in the emerging mobile Internet. In the meantime, look for these other  initiatives involving self-developed smartphones from Alibaba, Shanda and others to be quietly retired in the months ahead after they find few or no buyers after their roll-outs.

Bottom line: New tie-ups by Sina and Baidu look like good highly focused moves to gain share in the crowded mobile Internet market by pairing with established smartphone makers.

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Baidu Smartphones Set to Stumble 百度进军智能手机市场或以失败告终

TCL Cellphones: History Repeats Itself TCL手机业务历史重演

Qihoo’s Co-CFO: New Storm Clouds? 奇虎360财务疑云未散

Controversial Internet software maker Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU), accused by some of inflating its user data, has just announced some nice new figures that show a big jump in first-quarter sales tempered by a forecast for slowing growth in the current quarter. But what caught my attention in the report was the more unusual announcement that the company is appointing a new “co-CFO”, a title which I have never heard before and a move that, for me at least, increases my suspicions that perhaps there may be some truth to claims of exaggerated accounting. Let’s take a quick look at the actual results, as investors seem to be focused on that element of the report, with Qihoo saying its revenue tripled in the first quarter to $69.3 million, as it swung back to a profit after reporting a net loss a year earlier. (earnings announcement) But it also predicted a sharp slowdown in its top-line outlook, with revenue growth expected to slow to just 100 percent, not a bad figure on the surface but still about half the 200 percent rate it just recorded. Investors seem to be focused on the big revenue growth and return to profits, bidding up Qihoo shares nearly 5 percent during regular-hours trade on Tuesday in New York before the results announcement came out. Shares also rose another 4.5 percent in after-hours trade after the report came out. But below all the pretty numbers, the company near the bottom of its report also announced it is promoting its vice president of finance, Jue Yao, to the new position of co-CFO, sharing the role with the current CFO Alex Xu, citing its rapid business expansion for the move. I should at least credit Qihoo for being relatively transparent about this move, as the only reason I even noticed it was because they included it in the headline of their earnings report. At the same time, this kind of move involving a high-ranking financial official at a company is always a bit of a red flag that perhaps something is happening behind the scenes that the company would prefer investors didn’t know about. In Qihoo’s case, the company has already been living beneath a cloud for the last half year, following the release of a report by a short seller named Citron last fall claiming that many of the company’s figures were vastly overstated. (previous post) Qihoo’s shares largely survived that attack, even after Citron issued another report repeating its allegations. But then early last month Forbes magazine published its own article also questioning several of Qihoo’s numbers, again strongly implying that the company’s accounting might be exaggerated and that its accountant, Deloitte, would probably pay extra scrutiny to Qihoo’s records in upcoming audits. (previous post) Unlike the Citron report, the Forbes article seemed to carry a bit more credibility since the magazine wasn’t trading in Qihoo shares. But Qihoo strongly denied any wrongdoing, and its share are right now at around the same level where they were before the first Citron attack. This new co-CFO announcement looks to me like something is indeed happening behind the scenes, though I don’t want to speculate what. But I do feel fairly confident that the Qihoo accounting story isn’t over just yet, with 1 or 2 major new developments likely in the next 3-4 months.

Bottom line: Despite an upbeat earnings report, Qihoo 360’s naming of a new co-CFO could indicate an ongoing saga of allegations of exaggerated accounting isn’t over yet.

Related postings 相关文章:

Qihoo: The Next Accounting Victim? 奇虎360:下一个会计丑闻受害者?

Qihoo 360 At Center of New Scandal 奇虎360陷入新的丑闻

Deloitte, SEC Butt Heads As China Looks On 我觉得“德勤与美国证券交易委员会在中国公司问题上的冲突

Baidu Smartphones Set to Stumble 百度进军智能手机市场或以失败告终

I don’t like to sound too negative for 2 days in a row, but one day after predicting failure for PC giant Lenovo’s (HKEx: 992) new smart TV initiative I have to give a similar forecast for the recent rush into smartphones by a growing number of Chinese Internet players, with search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) leading the charge. Chinese media have been buzzing for the last few days about Baidu’s new offering, a low-end smartphone that runs on the company’s self-developed operating system and was co-developed with TV maker Changhong (Shanghai: 600839). (Chinese article; English article) Baidu’s move follows the announcement of similar self-developed smartphones from online game specialist Shanda and Internet security firm Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU), and the latest reports that online game specialist NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) may also be getting into the space. (English article) Let’s have a closer look at the Baidu smartphone initiative, as that one is the most advanced, following the previous roll-out of an original Baidu model that failed to gain much attention under a partnership with Dell (Nasdaq: DELL). This latest tie-up with Changhong differs from the Dell model in that it is significantly cheaper, costing just 899 yuan, or about $140. I’ve looked at pictures of the new phone, and while a photo doesn’t always tell the full story, the handset truly does look clunky and cheap. I’m a bit surprised that Baidu is partnering with such unexperienced companies, first with Dell and now Changhong, in this initiative that is no doubt costing a lot of money. Dell is more known for its computers than cellphones, though the 2 product types do share some similarities. Changhong is known almost exclusively for its TVs, which have almost nothing in common with smartphones. That said, I really don’t expect much if any success for this new Baidu-Changhong model, which will have to compete with much more attractive low-cost smartphones from fast-growing domestic firms ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) and Huawei, which mostly use Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) popular and reliable Android operating system. In fact, Baidu’s initiative looks like an attempt to imitate Google with Android, acknowledging the increasing importance of the mobile Internet. I applaud Baidu for putting big resources into this important new area, but honestly believe its smartphone initiative is set for failure. If Baidu wants to increase its chances of success, it could start by partnering with a major smartphone maker rather than Changhong, though I suspect many such players would be reluctant to form such a tie-up. Meantime, I would make similar predictions for the other smartphone initiatives from Shanda, Qihoo and now NetEase. I’m not sure why all these companies are taking such steps, as the smartphone market is already quite crowded with much more experienced and resource-rich players like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Samsung (Seoul: 005930). Perhaps all these companies just have too much money and are looking for a place to spend it.

Bottom line: Baidu’s smartphone initiative is likely to fail due to competition and inexperience, but could stand a better chance of success with better manufacturing partners.

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News Digest: April 14-16, 2012 报摘: 2012年4月14-16日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 14-16. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Qihoo (NYSE: QIHU) Anti-Monopoly Lawsuit Against Tencent (HKEx: 700) to Start April 17 (Chinese article)

Renault (Paris: RENA), Dongfeng (HKEx: 489) Sign Outline China Deal: Sources (English article)

iCafe8 (Shenzhen: 300113) to Acquire Shanda Subsidiary Jisheng (English article)

China Mobile (HKEx: 941) to Launch Commercial 4G Network in Hong Kong in Q4 (Chinese article)

Microsoft’s (Nasdaq: MSFT) Leung Quits as Head of China, Prompting Reshuffle (English article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

Qihoo: The Next Accounting Victim? 奇虎360:下一个会计丑闻受害者?

Just when the confidence crisis that has hit US-listed Chinese stocks for nearly a year looked like it was waning, a new accounting scandal could now be brewing, this time involving security software maker Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU). Readers of this space will recall that Qihoo came under attack last year by a small brokerage named Citron, which questioned the company’s user figures and said Qihoo’s stock was probably worth around $5 per share rather than the $20 range where it was trading at that time. (previous post) Now Forbes magazine has come out with a much broader report questioning many of Qihoo’s operational figures, including its advertising revenues. (Chinese article) Qihoo responded by issuing a statement “strongly rejecting” the allegations, and also threatening legal action. (Qihoo statement) As a veteran reporter, I know it’s one thing when a small brokerage questions a company’s data, as many observers will suspect that brokerage is making such allegations to make some quick profits by short selling the company’s stock. But it’s quite another thing when a big publication like Forbes makes similar or even bigger allegations, as such publications understand the risks of printing material that might be considered defamatory and are much more careful about what they publish. Such publications also strictly forbid their reporters to trade in the stocks that they write about. In this case, I’ve had a look at the Forbes article and it does indeed appear that the author, Richard Pearson, has done quite a bit of research, including trying to contact the people who sell ads that are a main revenue source for Qihoo. Nothing in his research allows him to directly accuse Qihoo of falsifying data, but many of his arguments do seem convincing about why he believes the company may be engaged in questionable accounting. I’m quite confident that Deloitte, which is Qihoo’s accountant, will feel compelled to investigate some or all of the issues pointed out in the Forbes article, and wouldn’t be surprised at all to see it resign the Qihoo account if it doesn’t like what it finds. What surprises me quite a bit is how resilient Qihoo’s stock has been despite all this controversy. Its shares were trading around $20 when the initial Citron report came out last year and went down a bit afterwards. But they have rebounded sharply since then and were even above $25 before this latest Forbes story came out. And yet despite the strong arguments in the Forbes report, Qihoo shares have only fallen a relatively modest 11 percent since the article came out, indicating investors aren’t completely convinced that there are any problems. I previously said “let the buyer beware” when Qihoo made its initial public offering last year, as the company had a history of lawsuits being filed against it as a result of some of its dubious business practices. (previous post) I would take this opportunity to reiterate that message, and would be willing to bet this latest controversy involving Qihoo is far from over.

Bottom line: An attack on Qihoo 360 by Forbes magazine marks the beginning of a new controversy for the company, in the latest of a string of accounting scandals for US-listed Chinese firms.

Related postings 相关文章:

Qihoo 360 At Center of New Scandal 奇虎360陷入新的丑闻

Citron Keeps Up Qihoo Assault 香橼继续攻击奇虎

Inflated Qihoo Bounces Back on Hot Air

 

News Digest: April 5, 2012 报摘: 2012年4月5日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 5. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Tencent (HKEx: 700) Seeks Animation Development Tie-Up With Disney (NYSE: DIS) (Chinese article)

Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) Strongly Rejects Recent Allegations in Forbes Article (PRNewswire)

◙ China’s Wen Urges Breakup of Bank Monopoly as Growth Slows (English article)

Suntech (NYSE: STP) “Sun King” Sees Industry Back in Black, Eyes US Duties (English article)

Starwood Hotels (NYSE: HOT) to Open Its First Dual-Branded Ski Resort in China (Businesswire)

Qihoo 360 At Center of New Scandal 奇虎360陷入新的丑闻

Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) seems to pride itself in its ability to make headlines, usually by touting user numbers that some believe are highly inflated, and the latest events that have propelled this company onto the front page just underscore its highly controversial nature. Qihoo, better known for launching assaults on others, both in the courtroom and in the business arena, saw its applications abruptly removed from Apple’s (Nasdaq: AAPL) China app store, amid allegations of manipulation of the ratings information posted by buyers of its apps. (English article; Chinese article) The reports are full of innuendo and of course Apple itself is refusing to comment, but the implication seems to be that Qihoo itself may have tried to manipulate the user ratings to make its apps look better than the ratings were otherwise saying. This would totally come as no surprise, as this kind of manipulation is relatively easy to do and can have a huge impact on sales. What’s more, Qihoo has shown little or no reluctance to use this kind of tactic in the past, and in fact this looks relatively benign compared to some of the other things it has been accused of over the years. Other reports have Qihoo implying that the manipulation that resulted in the ouster of its apps may have been engineered by one of its many enemies, with Internet leader Tencent’s (HKEx: 700) name frequently mentioned after the companies got in a major spat less than 2 years ago that also made national headlines. Of course, as all this is happening, Qihoo is also coming under attack from a small US research house, Citron, which has mounted a campaign for several months now accusing the company of vastly overstating its user numbers. (previous post) Qihoo’s shares took a slight hit overnight, dropping 4 percent to around $17 in US trading on Tuesday after reports of the latest spat came out. Qihoo has vowed to have its apps back in Apple’s China app store in the next 24-48 hours, though I suspect the company will get a severe lecturing from Apple if the manipulation allegations are the source of the removal, and it could be a week or longer before the apps return. At the end of the day, this particular development isn’t all that significant by itself, but is just the latest piece in a stream of news that reveals the true nature of Qihoo, which will ultimately serve to undermine confidence in the company and its stock.

Bottom line: The latest brouhaha over the removal of Qihoo apps from Apple’s China store underscores the company’s credibility issues, which will ultimately hurt both its reputation and stock.

Related postings 相关文章:

Citron Keeps Up Qihoo Assault 香橼继续攻击奇虎

Web Security: Qihoo Sputters, NetQin Surges

Report Takes Wind Out of Inflated Qihoo 奇虎遭遇Citron釜底抽薪

CCTV’s Latest Web Tie-Up: Who Cares? 奇虎联手央视料难成功

Web software firm Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU), which has recently come under a short seller attack for allegedly inflating its user figures, is trumpeting a new tie-up with the online unit of CCTV, China’s leading TV broadcaster, to jointly create an online video platform — a development that looks great in the headlines but one that leads me to ask a simple question: Who cares? (English article) I’ve previously stated my belief that Qihoo is a company prone to exaggeration, and in all fairness I can’t really blame Qihoo for wanting to hype this latest development, as obviously CCTV is a big name in video content. In fact, my skepticism would be better directed at CCTV, which is trying hard to become more commercial along with other big state-run media giants like Xinhua and People’s Daily, which are both in the process of doing IPOs for their websites in an effort to earn money and become more self sufficient. (previous post) Put quite simply, CCTV and Xinhua have launched a seemingly nonstop stream of similar tie-ups in the last few years with names like China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), Tencent (HKEx: 700) and Bloomberg, none of which seems to be particularly successful. The reason for the muted success, and one reason I’d caution investors against getting too excited, is relatively simple: the average Chinese still sees CCTV, Xinhua and People’s Daily largely as propaganda tools of the communist party, and aren’t all that interested in spending their web surfing and mobile browsing time reading or viewing more of their material. What’s more, these mammoth state-run media giants, no matter how hard they try, simply lack the instincts to be true commercial companies as their first priority will always be to propaganda officials and everything else will come second. Qihoo shareholders seem to have liked the news, bidding up the company’s shares 8 percent in Tuesday trading on Wall Street. But I’d caution any excited buyers not to hold out too much hope for this new CCTV tie-up, despite the broadcaster’s big name, and would likewise give a similar warning to any other company that does future similar deals with CCTV or Xinhua. On the other hand, I wouldn’t extend my skepticism to all media companies, and in fact do believe that certain aggressive regional players like Shanghai Media Group and Hunan Broadcasting might make much more interesting media partners.

Bottom line: A new tie-up between Qihoo 360 and CCTV will produce lackluster results, as will similar partnerships involving CCTV, Xinhua and other media outlets with strong central government ties.

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Web Security: Qihoo Sputters, NetQin Surges

Amid all the recent talk about security due to high-profile breaches at some big-name web firms, 2 of the nation’s top Web security software makers, high-flyer Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU) and laggard NetQin (NYSE: NQ), are seeing some sharp reversals of fortune as investors take a second look at these stocks. We’ll start with Qihoo, clearly the larger and more aggressive of the 2, which has started the new year by announcing a plan to buy back up to $50 million in company shares. (company announcement; Chinese article) The timing of the plan is interesting, as the markets have been relatively quiet in recent weeks compared with the summer and fall when many other US-listed Chinese firms announced similar buy-backs. But a quick look at Qihoo shares reveals its stock is down around 30 percent from its mid-November high, which roughly corresponds to when a small research house named Citron came out with a report saying Qihoo’s user figures were grossly exaggerating and that its stock, then trading in the $20 range, should be valued closer to $5 per share. (previous post) Qihoo denied the claims, prompting Citron to issue another similar report weeks later. Investors seemed to shrug off the initial report, but the recent fall in its price to below $15, which seems to have prompted the buyback, clearly has the company worried that people may finally be waking up to the reality that Qihoo does indeed seem to be prone to exaggeration based on past actions, though obviously I can’t comment on the accuracy of Citron’s claims. Stay tuned for more downward pressure on its shares this year. Meantime, NetQin, a smaller security software firm whose shares have languished since their IPO last May, got a nice boost on Wall Street after announcing a deal to provide software to Motorola Mobility. (company announcement) Its shares rose 16 percent after the news came out, and indeed such a deal shows the company may still have some potential even after reports emerged last year of conflicts with China’s 3 big telcos. Even so, the company’s shares, which now trade at around $6.20, are still down by about half from their IPO level of $11.50, so they still  have a ways to go.

Bottom line: Qihoo shares will come under pressure this year as doubts remain about its credibility, while rival NetQin could get a lift following a new agreement with Motorola.

Related postings 相关文章:

Qihoo, Vancl Fend Off New Attacks 奇虎、凡客和人人承受压力

Netqin Fizzles on Debut, Could Still Have Potential 网秦首秀表现不佳但可能仍具潜力

Report Takes Wind Out of Inflated Qihoo 奇虎遭遇Citron釜底抽薪

Short Sellers Target China in Year End Assault 做空抛盘年底将矛头对准在美上市中国企业

The US Thanksgiving holiday is just around the corner, but some top US-listed China firms have little to be thankful for these days, following a round of short-seller attacks against them that have claimed Focus Media (Nasadaq: FMCN) as their latest victim. I do find it a bit strange that the attacks, which seemed to reach a peak during the summer at the height of the confidence crisis against US-listed China firms, have returned now, leading me to suspect that these short sellers are trying to earn some quick bucks before the year ends. This latest round of attacks began 3 weeks ago, when a report by a small brokerage named Citron questioned claims by Internet security firm Qihoo (NYSE: QIHU) about the size of its user base, saying the stock should be valued at about a quarter of its current level at that time. (previous post) Last week, another report took aim at education services firm New Oriental (NYSE: EDU), this time questioning some of the firm’s accounting. (previous post) The latest attack aimed at Focus Media  came from the notorious short selling specialist Muddy Waters, again calling into question some of the company’s claims about the size of its market. (English article)  Focus share plunged 40 percent the day the report came out, while Qihoo and New Oriental shares are both down around 20 percent since the reports attacking them came out. Knowing what I do about Chinese companies, it appears that the short sellers are taking aim at companies that have engaged in somewhat questionable business practices in the past and don’t enjoy the most stellar reputations among their peers, perhaps calling into question their broader credibility and making them more vulnerable to this kind of attack. I won’t get into specifics, but suffice it to say that some of the companies in this latest round of attacks have mounted their own guerrilla-style attacks in the past, and are also known for their fondness for exaggeration. Given that this new wave of attacks does seem to be aimed at making some fast profits at the end of the year, I’d say to look for a few more before 2011 ends, with companies with less-than-stellar reputations especially vulnerable.

Bottom line: The latest round of short selling aimed at US-listed Chinese firms seems to be taking aim at companies with spotty reputations, with more similar attacks likely to come.

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Report Takes Wind Out of Inflated Qihoo 奇虎遭遇Citron釜底抽薪

Spreadtrum On Cusp of Putting Out Short-Seller Fire 展讯力抗卖空方

Education Getting Lesson in Competition

 

Inflated Qihoo Bounces Back on Hot Air

After briefly considering a recent research report raising doubts about user numbers from Internet security software maker Qihoo 360 (NYSE: QIHU), investors seem to have brushed the information aside, preferring to believe the company’s hype. OK, I should probably be a little more fair and say that the recent bounce-back in shares for Qihoo, which I’ve previously criticized for its unethical business practices, was probably sparked by a strong earnings report this week that saw the company’s third-quarter profit nearly triple and revenues rise by even more. (English article) But what caught my attention were claims by the company that it now controls 57 percent of China’s Internet browser market, with about 235 million users. This sounded a bit high to me, as most people I know in China use more mainstream browsers from Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Mozilla and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). So I did a little analysis based on data for this site. According to that data, about half of the visitors to this site are in China. And yet the same data source says just 13 percent of visitors to this site use Qihoo’s browser. So assuming this site is roughly representative of the market, that means Qihoo browsers control just a quarter of the China Internet market at best, or less than half of what it claims. If the browser figure is so inflated, then I can only imagine how accurate Qihoo’s other numbers are. A report earlier this month from a small research house called Citron also called many of Qihoo’s Internet numbers into question, and said the company’s shares were extremely overvalued and should trade at about $5 per share, versus their price of $20 at the time. (previous post) Its shares briefly slipped about 15 percent to around $16.50 after that, but have come back following its earnings report came out and now trade around $17.60. I won’t question the authenticity of the company’s earnings, as I do believe they are probably honest for legal reasons if nothing else. But once Qihoo’s advertisers — who account for 73 percent of the company’s revenue — realize they’re not getting nearly the online audience that Qihoo claims, look for that part of the company’s business to drop considerably.

Bottom line: Qihoo 360 continues to post strong results on Internet user data that appears to be quite exaggerated, making it vulnerable to advertiser defections.

Related postings 相关文章:

Report Takes Wind Out of Inflated Qihoo 奇虎遭遇Citron釜底抽薪

Qihoo Goes to War With Mobile Browsers 奇虎360加强移动互联网布局

Qihoo Loses Yet Another Lawsuit, But No One Cares 奇虎败诉不足为戒