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Shanda Cloudary Returns to Market, Worth a Look

Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) Chairman Chen Tianqiao is either very persistent or very stupid, as he returns to market with an IPO for his online literature unit, Shanda Cloudary, just months after he shelved the offering due to poor market sentiment, even as current sentiment remains poor. I’ve heard the guy is quite intelligent, even if most of his business endeavors don’t yield very impressive results, so I’m willing to give this new offering a look. (English article) Based on the numbers, the story actually looks quite interesting. Cloudary’s two biggest income sources, revenue from online users and from its online wireless service, both rose by triple digit percentages in the first half of the year, with the latter up more than 200 percent to a relatively modest 73.7 million yuan, or about $12 million. The company posted a net loss for the first half of the year, but that loss narrowed to about 14 million yuan from 22 million yuan in 2010. With revenue of around $50 million in the first half of this year, Cloudary is clearly not a huge company yet and has lots of room to grow. I’ve previously yawned at this offering, calling it just another attempt by Chen to squeeze more money out of financial markets, but I have to admit the numbers do seem to tell an interesting story. What’s even more interesting for me, however, is the reality on the ground: walking around in Shanghai, it’s nearly impossible to go for more than a few minutes without seeing someone on the subway or waiting in line at a shop reading on their cellphone or tablet computer. Perhaps it’s news, or perhaps it’s literature or perhaps it’s both. But regardless, Cloudary does seem to be in a strong position to take advantage of this trend, which will undoubtedly grow stronger as mobile devices such as e-readers and smartphones become more common. That said, I’m going to tweak my previous prediction and say that despite a dismal debut by video sharing IPO Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) earlier this month (previous post), Cloudary could actually do well in its offering and bring back a little buzz to the sputtering China Internet.

Bottom line: Shanda’s Cloudary online literature unit could offer an intriguing play into the growing market for mobile content with its upcoming IPO.

Related postings 相关文章:

Tudou IPO Set to Stumble Out of the Gate 土豆上市首日难有精彩表现

Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

◙  Dud Looms With Shanda Literature Offering 盛大文学上市令人不解

Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

Despite their late arrival to the game, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) could soon become potent forces in their newly chosen fields of SNS and e-commerce, respectively. Sina looks the sharpest in this latecomer strategy, reporting that its Boke Qing social networking site, which held its beta launch last month (previous post) has already registered its 1 millionth user. (English article) Sina has achieved the breakneck growth by packaging Qing as a more substantial complement to its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service, considered the Twitter of China. Qing, which links seamlessly with Weibo, is likely to grow exponentially over the next few months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 10 million users by year end. If it achieves that kind of growth, it could easily challenge industry leader Renren (NYSE: RENN), which reported 31 million users in the first quarter of this year. If Qing really achieves such fast take-up and Weibo starts generating some profits, I could see Sina packaging these two units together and making a US public listing for the pair as soon as the end of 2012. Meantime, Tencent has detailed plans to develop a mega-platform for both B2C and C2C called Paipai, and will put 500 million yuan, or about $80 million, behind the effort. Like Sina, Tencent has proved to be very adept at leveraging a huge user base for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service into other areas, overtaking Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) in just a few years to become China’s biggest online game operator. Of course, it will face stiffer competition in e-commerce, going up against sector giant Taobao, along with other names like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian. Despite that, I’d still give Tencent’s e-commerce initiative a fair shot at success due to its unique position as China’s Internet leader, while Qing’s success looks almost 100 percent guaranteed due to its links to Sina and Weibo.

Bottom line: Sina’s new Qing SNS service could become a major player by year-end, while Tencent’s new e-commerce initiative also stands a good chance of success.

新浪(SINA.O)在社交网络服务领域、腾讯(0700.HK: 行情)在电子商务领域,都算是後来者,但可能迅速崛起。新浪势头凌厉,上月启动轻博客公测版後,其注册用户已突破100万。新浪以轻博客作为微博的补充,两款产品实现相互联通,实现用户数量迅猛增长。新浪轻博客在未来几个月可能呈飞速成长,若到今年底用户达到1,000万,我一点都不会惊讶。若这成为现实,则可挑战该领域领头羊–人人网(RENN.N),今年第一季人人网注册用户已达到了3,100万人。如果轻博客果真发展神速,微博也开始盈利,我认为,最快到明年底,新浪就可能将轻博客与微博整合到一起,在美国上市。与此同时,腾讯也制定详细计划,打造B2C和C2C商务平台拍拍网,将为此投入5亿元资源。与新浪相似,腾讯也善于利用其庞大的QQ用户群,将服务拓展至新领域,短短几年时间就取代盛大(SNDA.O)和网易(NTES.O),成为中国最大的网络游戏运营商。当然,腾讯在电子商务领域面临的竞争会更激烈一些,需要面对当当网(DANG.N)、京东商城、和沃尔玛(WMT.N)投资的1号店等强劲对手。但鉴于腾讯在中国互联网领域的地位,我还是对其在电子商务领域的尝试寄予厚望。至于新浪的轻博客,其成功几乎没有悬念。

一句话:新浪轻博客到今年底将成为社交网络服务领域重要力量,而腾讯在电子商务领域新尝试也很有希望取得成功。

Related postings 相关文章:

Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务

Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举

Wall Street Clean-Up Underway Amid Accounting Crisis 会计危机中华尔街展开清理行动

The first signs of a clean-up of some of the smaller US-listed Chinese firms is underway, with two announcing in the last week that they have fallen out of compliance with Nasdaq listing rules due to late filing of annual reports. The pair, AutoChina International (Nasdaq: AUTC) and CDC Software (Nasdaq: CDCS), both issued the same generic statements, each saying it was notified of being out of compliance with Nasdaq rules for failing to file its annual report by the required deadline. (AutoChina announcement; CDC Software announcement) These are two of the bigger US-listed China companies, which is why they’ve made these public announcements, but I’m certain that many smaller companies with market value of less than $1 million have also probably fallen out of compliance for the same reason, namely that no accountant wants to certify their results for fear they contain inaccurate and misleading information. I wouldn’t be surprised if either AutoChina or CDC is ultimately de-listed, and would expect many of the smaller companies to be de-listed as well by this time next year. Meantime, the confidence crisis has claimed yet another victim, this time Shanda’s (Nasdaq: SNDA) already dubious IPO for its Cloudary literature unit, according to Chinese media reports. (Chinese article) Suspension of the Cloudary plan follows the similar pulling of an IPO by video and audio sharing site Xunlei last week, after demand evaporated for the offering. (previous post) Xunlei may come back to market in the next 2-3 months, but don’t expect to see Cloudary, a much less interesting offering, coming back for a listing until next year at earliest.

Bottom line: A clean-up of smaller New York-listed Chinese firms has begun, with many likely to de-list by this time next year due to accounting issues.

华尔街清理一些较小型在美上市中资企业的信号开始浮现。上周两家企业宣布,因未能按时提交年度报告,被警告违反了纳斯达克上市规则。开元汽车(AUTC.O)与中华网软件(CDCS.O)双双发布声明称,因没有在截止日期前按时提交年度报告,被通知违反了纳斯达克规定。他们是在美上市的两家较大中资企业,这也是其发布公开声明的原因。但我肯定还有很多市值不到100万美元的小企业可能也因同样的原因违反规定,也就是说,因害怕报告中含有不准确、误导性信息,没有会计人员愿意为其审计报告结果。如果两家企业最後被摘牌,我也不会感到意外,而且我预计到明年这个时间很多小一些的企业将会被摘牌。同时,又有新企业因信任危机倒霉了。这次是盛大网络(SNDA.O)旗下子公司盛大文学海外,其纽交所IPO进程宣布暂停,而上周迅雷也决定推迟赴美IPO,因认购不足。迅雷未来两三个月内或许会重启IPO进程,但是盛大文学就未必了,最早可能也要等到明年了。

一句话:华尔街对较小中资企业的清理行动已经启动,到明年这个时间或许有很多企业会因会计问题被摘牌。

Related postings 相关文章:

Xunlei’s Shrinking IPO Disappears 迅雷无限期推迟IPO时间

Latest Solar Audit Resignation Hints at Major Issues Ahead 中国太阳能行业再现审计人员辞职:昭示问题还在前方

China Confidence Crisis Separates Wheat from Chaff 中国企业信任危机 对不同公司各有利弊