Tag Archives: Sina

Sina latest Business & Financial news overview of Doug Young, the Expert on Chinese companies, (former Journalist and Chief editor at Reuters)

China’s Microblog Crackdown Continues 中国继续加强微博管控 新浪或受冲击

China’s displeasure at the ability of Twitter-like microblogs to quickly and efficiently spread rumors is heading into a new phase, with word that Beijing is ordering all search engines to stop including microblog posts in their results. (English article) Details are scant and there’s no official confirmation from Beijing, but the reports say an official at the Data Center of China Internet said on his own microblog that the move has been ordered by relevant government offices effective immediately, a move that would deal yet another blow to Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) as it tries to commercialize its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service. Weibo and its peers have had a difficult time these last few months, as Beijing tries to rein in this popular medium that allows anyone to say anything they want and see their messages instantly passed on to thousands of other subscribers, often leading to huge waves of protest or criticism of various social problems and government shortcomings. Late last year the government rolled out a new rule requiring all microblog users to register with their real names, in a bid to curtail rumor-mongering by people who could say anything they wanted with no fear of being identified. (previous post) More recently, the government ordered Weibo and another popular microblogging service operated by Tencent (HKEx: 700) to shut down part of their services after they helped to spread false rumors that army troops were entering Beijing amid the Communist Party’s latest internal power struggle. (previous post) This latest initiative, if it’s true, looks like just the latest step in the drive to reduce the influence of microblogs by making their messages unavailable to people using Internet search engines. While a large number of Weibo viewers get their news directly off Weibo itself, I suspect a large number of people also view Weibo posts as a result of web searches, as such posts are often indexed by the search engines. This latest initiative should have little effect on the search engines themselves, but could significantly reduce traffic to Weibo by halting all referrals from the search engines. That will come as the latest headache for Sina as it tries to commercialize Weibo, as the lower traffic volumes will make the service less attractive to advertisers that are one of the biggest potential revenue sources. If Beijing continues to impose more and more restrictions on Weibo like this, look for the service, once considered full of potential, to eventually wither and maybe even die in what would be a huge setback for Sina.

Bottom line: Beijing’s latest order banning microblog posts from search results is the latest setback for Sina’s Weibo, which is being by a growing list of government restrictions.

Related postings 相关文章:

New Crackdown Spotlights Social Networking Risk 新的打压凸显社交网络风险

Real Name Registration: Burden or Not for Weibo? 实名制会否成为新浪微博的负担?

Microblog Clampdown: Only Chapter 1? 实名制向网络行业吹去冷风

News Digest: April 17, 2012 报摘: 2012年4月17日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on April 17. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Suning (Shenzhen: 002024) Retail Portal to Launch Travel and Wine Channels (English article)

Marvel’s “Iron Man 3” to Be Co-Produced in China (Businesswire)

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) Said to Raise $2.5 Billion in ICBC (HKEx: 1398) Sale (English article)

People’s Daily Web Site Sets IPO Price Range, Demand Strong (Chinese article)

Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo Microblog Releases Ad Price List (English article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q1 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

New Crackdown Spotlights Social Networking Risk 新的打压凸显社交网络风险

It’s a beautiful spring day here in Shanghai, and if you’re an avid microblogger you’re probably getting up and perusing the latest news and gossip on Sina’s (Nasdaq: SINA) popular Weibo service to read and pass on to your friends the latest news about your favorite celebrity or social issue. But a quick attempt to pass on someone else’s posts with your own insightful comments attached is suddenly impossible — blocked by Weibo itself as punishment from Beijing for spreading rumors, underscoring again the perils big companies face when setting up shop in China’s social networking realm. (English article) The news that Sina’s Weibo and another popular microblogging service from Tencent (HKEx: 700) are both being punished for spreading rumors should come as a surprise to no one, though enthusiastic investors who purchased stock of both companies on big hopes for their microblogging services might decide that Monday is a good time to sell some of their shares. The reports on what happened are actually quite detailed, saying both Sina and Tencent angered Beijing by allowing rumors to spread on their services that troops had moved into the nation’s capital as part of a coup attempt that never happened. Beijing has always been sensitive about any kind of rumor that could foment social unrest, and those sensitivities will only increase this year as the nation prepares for a major handover of power from the current leaders following the end of their official 10-year term in office. What’s interesting in this situation is the very public way in which the matter is being handled, with news of the false rumors and unspecified punishment both appearing in a report from Xinhua, the central news agency considered the voice of the Communist Party itself. No specifics of the punishment have been disclosed, and I suspect both Sina and Tencent will face limits on their microblogging operations and perhaps some small fines over the short term. But the longer term implications could be much more worrisome, with both companies facing big consequences — including even a possible shut-down — if they commit any similar transgressions in the year ahead during the sensitive power handover. That could pose a big risk to both companies, as well as other microblogging services, as all have now officially been warned that Beijing won’t tolerate any political rumors in the months ahead. That means all these services will undoubtedly delete any political postings on their services that are even remotely political for fear of offending Beijing, which could easily anger many of their millions of users who will no longer be able to post many of their thoughts online. Advertisers will also undoubtedly think twice about wanting to play in such a dangerous space, where their ads could not only suddenly become in accessible but they could also risk angering Beijing by doing business with companies accused of spreading rumors. This latest development comes only months after Beijing announced its “real name” policy for all microblogging sites, requiring them to register all their users by their real names, again as a measure to try and curb rumor mongering and other unsavory activities such as scams. (previous post) Sina, Tencent, NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) and other microblog site operators aren’t the only ones at risk, as other social networking site operators like Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin, whose services are more similar to Facebook, could just as easily be accused of spreading rumors and also be punished. To anyone considering buying shares of any of these companies, I would just reiterate that they may have good great growth potential due to the size of China’s Internet market — which recently passed 500 million users — but they also come with huge risk. Especially in the coming year with the leadership change, these companies will have to be especially careful about what they allow on their sites, and can risk punishment or closure at any time. At the same time they face the risk of punishment by their own users, who might become frustrated with all the new restrictions and could easily end up abandoning their accounts.

Bottom line: The latest punishment for Sina and Tencent microblogging services for spreading rumors  underscores the big risks China Internet companies face due to political considerations.

Related postings 相关文章:

Real Name Registration: Burden or Not for Weibo? 实名制会否成为新浪微博的负担?

Sina Gets Serious on Weibo 新浪开始严肃对待微博

Microblog Clampdown: Only Chapter 1? 实名制向网络行业吹去冷风

News Digest: March 17-19, 2012 报摘: 2012年3月17-19日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 17-19. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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EBay’s (Nasdaq: EBAY) PayPal Aims to Challenge Alibaba With China Payments (English article)

Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Microblogging Users Ignore Real-Name Requirement (English article)

UBS, StanChart Buy China Cinda Stake Ahead of IPO (English article)

◙ Vietnam Says CNOOC’s (HKEx: 883) South China Sea Bids Violate Territory (English article)

SMIC (HKEx: 981; NYSE: SMI) Secures US$600 Million Syndicated Loan (HKEx announcement)

◙ Latest calendar for Q4 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

Real Name Registration: Burden or Not for Weibo? 实名制会否成为新浪微博的负担?

Just a day before an initial deadline requiring all microblog users to register with their real names, domestic media are reporting that leading operator Weibo, a unit of Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has registered some 60 percent of users with their real names. (Chinese article) So the real question becomes: Will this new requirement become a major impediment to growth of this space, or were earlier fears overblown? The answer probably lies somewhere in between, following implementation of this controversial policy by Chinese regulators in an effort to curtail rumor mongoring by microbloggers who could previously say whatever they wanted online and hide behind a veil of anonymity. (previous post) The 60 percent conversion rate actually looks not bad to me, as it proves that at least 60 percent of Sina’s estimate 250 million registered users are active enough to want to keep posting their latest thoughts and other materials on Weibo. That translates to 150 million active users, which should still be an attractive audience for advertisers and others looking to leverage Weibo as Sina seeks out ways to commercialize the service. The 40 percent of users who haven’t registered with their real names translates to a sizable 100 million people, many of whom could soon lose their rights to post messages on their accounts once the deadline passes. Of this figure, a sizable number — perhaps one-third to one-half — might still remain active Weibo users, since many people simply like to read other people’s postings on Sina and rarely post items themselves. This group of readers in theory should be allowed to continue to use Weibo even if they don’t register their real names, since the real-name requirement is designed to discourage people from spreading rumors and thus shouldn’t apply to people who use Weibo in read-only mode. So if even a third of the users who haven’t registered their real names continue as “read only” users, that would give Weibo around another 30 million users, meaning that altogether it could retain up to 70 percent of its original user base before the original requirement was imposed. That’s  certainly not a bad number, and the new requirement could perhaps even attract more users as it will effectively “clean up” the quality of postings, since many people may now be more reluctant to post obscene, viscous or other offensive material for fear of being tracked down by authorities. Of course, the big risk is the potential for online uprisings and massive defections if a Weibo user gets detained or questioned by police due to something they wrote on their Weibo. But for the moment at least, the real-name system looks like its impact on Weibo could be relatively limited, and perhaps even beneficial in the long term, as Sina tries to make the unit profitable in the run-up to a like spin off and IPO as soon as the second half of next year.

Bottom line: Implementation of a real-name system is having limited impact on Weibo and other microblogs, and could even attract more users by improving the quality of postings.

Related postings 相关文章:

Sina Gets Serious on Weibo 新浪开始严肃对待微博

Sina Tests Weibo Demand With Paid Offering 新浪试水微博增值收费服务

New Rule Hits Sina, Instant Messaging to Benefit? 微博实名重创新浪 即时信息服务有望受益

News Digest: March 14, 2012 报摘: 2012年3月14日

The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on March 14. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

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Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Weibo Says Real Name Registration Complete for 60% of Users (Chinese article)

◙ Jeremy Lin Said to Be in Talks to Endorse Geely’s (HKEx: 175) Volvo in China (English article)

Lenovo (HKEx: 992), SugarSync Open Cloud Service to Consumers Worldwide (Businesswire)

◙ China’s Cable Broadband Households Reach 6 Mln (English article)

Louvre Hotels Banks on Chinese Partner Jin Jiang (Shanghai: 600754) for Expansion (English article)

◙ Latest calendar for Q4 earnings reports (Earnings calendar)

Tudou Plus Youku: Two Small Potatoes

Note to readers: This article was written and published on Tuesday, March 13, in Hong Kong’s Economic Journal, but I’m just posting it today (Thursday) on  my blog as part of my agreement with them.

It’s not often that mergers happen among publicly traded companies in China’s crowded Internet space, so I’m not even sure where to begin in discussing the just-announced deal that will see leading online video site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) buy rival Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) to form an undisputed domestic leader in online video. (company announcement) On paper and in theory the deal sounds quite attractive, combining China’s biggest and second biggest video sharing sites in an interesting marriage between Youku’s more corporate style and Tudou, which has a much more entrepreneurial background under the leadership of outspoken founder Gary Wang. But the reality is much less interesting, with this newly merged company still a relatively small entity likely to face numerous challenges going forward. For Tudou shareholders at least, the deal looks quite sweet. After seeing Tudou shares sink steadily to lose about half of their value following the company’s initial public offering last August, investors who had enough patience to hold on will get a rare premium of 38 percent to the company’s original IPO price, and an even juicier 160 percent to its last closing price before the deal was announced. Investors bid Tudou shares up by nearly that amount in Monday trade after the deal was announced, in a jump that should surprise no one. But perhaps more telling, Youku shares also rose 27 percent, a jump partly due to excitement about this new industry leader but also, in my view, because many believe the new company could itself soon become an acquisition target. At the end of the day, the deal itself is relatively tiny, valuing Tudou at just over $1 billion even after the big premium. That, combined with Youku’s own market value of $2.85 billion, means the entire merged company will be worth just under $4 billion — hardly a figure to get anyone too excited, and still trailing most other big Chinese Internet names like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), NetEase (NTES) and well behind Internet search leaders Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700). Youku now controls about 22 percent of China’s online video market and Tudou another 14 percent, meaning the combined company will still control less than half of this highly fragmented space. Both Youku and Tudou are also currently losing money, though this deal could help them move to profitability more quickly than each might have done as an individual company. Still, both companies’ latest quarterly results are hardly reassuring. Youku saw its loss actually widen 32 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, not the best sign for a company aiming for profitability. Tudou, meantime, also saw its fourth-quarter loss balloon ten-fold from a year ago, after it notched an unexpected profit in the third quarter. The situation doesn’t look set to improve anytime soon, with a looming advertising slowdown for the broader Internet market also likely to hurt video sites in general, since advertisers looking for the most effective channel for their money are likely to skip those sites in favor of more effective platforms like Sina’s popular web portal and Baidu’s sector-leading search page. From the perspective of someone who has watched China’s Internet space for years, I have to say that I like this deal from a historical perspective as it represents one of the largest friendly mergers to date of two companies that strongly complement each other. But from the perspective of an investor, I honestly can’t get too excited about this deal, since both Youku and Tudou are ultimately just little players in China’s huge Internet realm that will quickly find that one small potato plus another small potato still equals a small potato. Furthermore, both companies have a number of factors working against them, including bottom lines moving in the wrong direction, potential integration issues of 2 very different corporate cultures, and a looming slowdown in advertising, their key revenue source. If I were a gambling man, I would bet that this new merged company will face a number of issues in the next year, but could ultimately still reward investors if it gets acquired by an even bigger company in the next 2 years, much the way that Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) purchased Youtube.

Bottom line: The Youku-Tudou merger is notable for setting a precedent, but will ultimately still create a small Internet player most likely to get purchased itself in the next 2 years.

Related postings 相关文章:

Regulator Eyes Online Video in Ad Crackdown 广电总局或限制视频网站广告

Tudou-Sina Tie-Up: More to Come? 土豆网联手新浪

Tudou Surprises With Profit, Licensing Deal 土豆网意外扭亏为盈视频分享市场的好兆头

NetEase Name Change: Spin-Off Coming 网易更名:预示业务分拆

So, when is the dropping of the .com suffix from a company’s name big news? The answer: When you’re an Internet veteran like NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), whose new announcement that it plans to formally change its name from NetEase.com to simply NetEase Inc will fuel expectation that the company is nearing a spin-off of its portal business, its oldest asset since it originally went public in the late 1990s. In a decidedly low-key announcement, NetEase said it has scheduled a rare extraordinary general shareholder meeting for March 29, at which owners of its stock will be asked to approve the name change. (company announcement) China Internet historians will note that NetEase began its life as a web portal operator, competing directly with China’s other 2 web stalwarts, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU). But its path diverged about a decade ago, when it found more success as an operator of online games, which now account for the large majority of its revenue. During that time, the company’s portal business, which includes a popular email service, started to languish, even though it remains a well-known and respected brand to this day. Realizing there may still be some value in the portal business, NetEase made signals last year that it  might spin off the unit in a bid to breathe new life into it by making it stand on its own. (previous post) Since then, industry buzz has also surfaced that the portal could make a nice asset to sell  or put into a joint venture with another Internet site operator, which could use the portal to diversify its own holdings and drive traffic to its core site. The number of such potential buyers could be huge, running the range from social networking sites like Renren (NYSE: RENN) to video sites like Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and perhaps even one or 2 e-commerce sites like Dangdang (NYSE: DANG). I haven’t heard any specific rumors about M&A talks, but this name change by NetEase looks like it is paving the way for the company to make a big move soon. If I were a gambler, I would bet we will see some kind of deal involving the portal business by September. What that deal will be is still probably under discussion, with a sale, joint venture or even a spin-off into a separate publicly listed company all possible. I think the joint venture is probably the most likely, as NetEase would like to retain a stake in this asset since it is so closely identified with the company. At the same time, the joint venture structure would allow NetEase to delegate management of the portal to someone else to let it focus on its core online game business.

Bottom line: NetEase’s pending name change means a spin-off of its portal business is likely in the next 6 months, with a new joint venture the most likely option.

Related postings 相关文章:

NetEase Sharpens Up Messaging in Run-Up to Portal Spin-Off 网易剥离门户网站 再度磨砺电邮服务

NetEase Looks to Reinvigorate Portal 网易似要重振门户

NetEase Makes Buzz With Buyback, Pigs 网易回购股票和养猪重大决策或在即

Slowing Ad Revenue Weighs on Phoenix 凤凰新媒体看淡广告收入前景

The latest sign of an advertising slowdown on the Internet is coming from the high-flying Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG), whose investors did some profit-taking in Tuesday trade before the company announced impressive fourth-quarter results that saw its ad revenue double even as it predicted the rate of increase would slow quite a bit in the first quarter. (company announcement) Shares of Phoenix tumbled nearly 6 percent in Tuesday trade, though they bounced back slightly after-hours after the results came out. The company, the new media arm of Phoenix Satellite Television (HKEx: 2008), said its fourth-quarter advertising revenue jumped by just over 100 percent to $24 million, helping to drive a 200 percent increase in its net profit. But clearly the more worrisome element was Phoenix’s outlook for the current quarter, in which it forecast that ad revenue growth will slow to about 70 percent — meaning the rate of increase will slow by about a third. As a result, the company expects its growth rate for total revenues to fall by even more, about 50 percent, to about 35 percent in the current quarter. In fact, I’ve been predicting this slowdown for a while as China’s Internet companies, once flush with investor cash, start to burn through their money piles and either go out of business or cut back sharply on their ad spending. Earlier this week, popular online men’s fashion retailer Masa Maso said it was planning to slash its 2012 advertising budget by 50 percent, as it focused more on getting repeat business from existing customers rather than the costlier proposition of finding new ones through aggressive advertising. (previous post) The slowdown is likely to hit most companies that rely heavily on advertising for their revenue, from search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) down the food chain to leading portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and online video and social networking sites like Youku (NYSE: YOKU) and Renren (NYSE: RENN). Baidu previously forecast that growth for its revenue — nearly all of which comes from advertising services — would slow in the current quarter to 75 percent from 82 percent in last year’s fourth quarter. Premier names like Baidu are likely to see the smallest effect from the slowdown, although even Baidu could see its revenue growth rate slip below 50 percent by year end. Meantime, look for much bigger slowdowns at less attractive ad platforms like Youku and Renren, with names like Sina and Phoenix likely to be somewhere in the middle when the nascent downturn starts to accelerate.

Bottom line: Outlook from Phoenix New Media is the latest indicator of a looming ad slowdown, which will sharply curb growth at firms dependent on ad revenue.

Related postings 相关文章:

Fashion E-tailer Cuts Point to Ad Slowdown 玛萨玛索削减广告投入

Baidu’s Strong Growth Underwhelms 百度业绩持续强劲增长将投资者期望抬升过高

Sohu Fails to Inspire With Latest Results 搜狐最新财报缺乏利好激励

Fashion E-tailer Cuts Point to Ad Slowdown 玛萨玛索削减广告投入

There’s an interesting report in the domestic media saying popular online men’s fashion retailer Masa Maso is planning to slash its advertising budget by half this year, a move that will probably be repeated throughout the industry as many e-commerce firms, most of them losing money, go into cash conservation mode in their struggle to survive. Of course that also bodes poorly for companies that depend heavily on such ad spending for their revenue, from search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which gets nearly all its revenue from advertisers, to web portals like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) and video and social networking sites likes Youku (NYSE: Youku) and Renren (NYSE: RENN). Let’s look at the report itself, as it does contain some details that show how the situation could play out. It cites a Masa Maso executive saying the company began slashing its ad spending in the second half of last year as part of a strategy to focus more on customer retention, in what looks like a roundabout way of saying it finally realized it had to cut costs and become profitable or risk going bankrupt. (English article) Most significantly, the executive says Masa Maso will focus its limited spending on search advertising, reflecting a broader trend that will see e-commerce firms and other advertisers probably cut back on ad platforms with more marginal returns in favor of ones with better track records. That should play to the advantage of search, which obviously means that Baidu could suffer less than others when the looming spending downturn becomes a major tide. Meantime, I would expect portal operators like Sina to also do relatively well in the coming downturn, as they tend to attract more mainstream audiences that would appeal more to advertisers. Companies most likely to take the biggest hit are specialty players, especially ones that cater to younger demographics who have less money to spend and thus are  less attractive to advertisers. That category includes many money-losing companies such as video sharing sites like Youku and social networking ones like Renren, which means that these companies might have to wait longer still to achieve their quest for sustainable profits. I expect this report from Masa Maso reflects a sharp slashing of ad budgets for 2012 in general, meaning we should start to see some of the damage show up when companies that depend on ads for their revenue start reporting their first-quarter results in April and May. When that happens, look for investor dollars to flow to the big names like Baidu and Sina, while shares of less popular advertising platforms like Youku and Renren could take a hit.

Bottom line: A slash in advertising by a major fashion retailer reflects broader cuts by e-commerce firms this year, which will soon show up in ad-dependent firms’ bottom lines.

Related postings 相关文章:

Baidu’s Strong Growth Underwhelms 百度业绩持续强劲增长将投资者期望抬升过高

Sohu Fails to Inspire With Latest Results 搜狐最新财报缺乏利好激励

Sina Results: Not So Diversified After All 新浪仍依赖广告,突围遇阻

Sina Gets Serious on Weibo 新浪开始严肃对待微博

After months of frustration for investors, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has finally laid out a detailed plan for how it will earn money from Weibo, with company executives forecasting the highly popular but unprofitable microblogging service will produce “meaningful” money by the second half of this year. Investors clearly liked what they heard, bidding up Sina’s shares by 12 percent in New York trading the day after CEO Charles Chao made his comments on a conference call to discuss Sina’s otherwise unimpressive fourth-quarter results. (English article; results announcement) I’ve had a glance at the plan, and it looks like a mixed bag of some things that are likely to work and some that probably won’t. In the first category, the most promising part is Sina’s plan to sign up enterprise customers and launch an ad display system on Weibo, which now boasts more than 250 million users. (English article) These 2 approaches look smart because they both target business customers, who are probably quite happy to pay big bucks for a chance to reach Weibo’s millions of users. Less interesting are Sina’s plans to roll out a growing number of paid services for Weibo users, including paid gaming services. In one of its few previously announced Weibo monetization initiatives, Sina said in January it would offer a premium version of Weibo for users who wanted to pay for extras like getting SMS mobile phone notifications when they received new posts to their accounts. (previous post) That announcement was greeted with mostly yawns, as everyone, myself included, knows it’s very difficult to get people to start paying for services that they’ve previous gotten for free — especially the big majority of Weibo users who are under 30 and don’t necessarily have lots of cash to spend. Of course, execution will be key in all of this, as it’s easy to say you’re going to target enterprise customers but not necessarily as easy to create products that those customers will want. Facebook has been quite successful at making this transition, though the road has been less smooth for Twitter, the global microblogging giant. In China the story is the same, with Baidu (Nasaq: BIDU) a clear leader at monetizing the huge traffic that flows through its search engine while local Facebook equivalent Renren (NYSE: RENN) has had more difficulty. Given Sina’s long history and relatively strong record at executing this kind of strategy, I would say its chances of making some significant money from Weibo by the end of this year are good. If that happens, I would look for an IPO of this high-profile unit as soon as mid-2013.

Bottom line: Sina’s plans to target corporate customers to monetize its Weibo service looks like a smart move, though plans to get money from ordinary users look more problematic.

Related postings 相关文章:

Sina Tests Weibo Demand With Paid Offering 新浪试水微博增值收费服务

Twitter Eyeing China? Twitter想进中国?

Sina’s Weibo Suffers New Setback With Lawsuit 吉林市驻京办可能起诉新浪微博