Tag Archives: Sina

Sina latest Business & Financial news overview of Doug Young, the Expert on Chinese companies, (former Journalist and Chief editor at Reuters)

Alibaba.com Blows Smoke With HiChina Spin-Off Plan 阿里巴巴网络分拆万网放烟幕弹

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Alibaba.com’s (HKEx: 1688) new announcement that it may spin off HiChina, its Internet infrastructure service provider that it acquired just 2 years ago, has all the signs of valuation envy from an industry leader that feels unappreciated by investors. (English article) That’s the only reason I can give for the strange timing of this announcement, coming at the height of one of the worst IPO markets in the last 2 years and at a time when US-listed China companies are particularly out of favor. Let’s look at the numbers: Alibaba.com, easily China’s biggest B2B e-commerce site, purchased HiChina in 2009 for a price that gave it a valuation at that time of around $100 million. Now, an unnamed source being quoted by the Wall Street Journal is saying the IPO could value the company at up to $500 million, or 5 times what Alibaba.com paid for it. I’m sure Alibaba has brought some synergies to the company since the purchase and also invested more money in it, but a 400 percent increase in value in just 2 years seems a bit too rich to me. More likely, Alibaba.com is feeling underappreciated by investors, who have dumped its shares in recent months causing it to lose nearly half its value since July, with a current market cap of around $4 billion. That’s easily the lowest market cap for any category leader in China’s Internet space. Leading web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has a current market cap of $5.4 billion, while Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Tencent (HKEx: 700), the leading search engine and online game operator, boast sky-high valuations of $43 billion and $37 billion, respectively. Alibaba.com’s parent company, Alibaba Group, is also no doubt feeling some pressure to show stronger valuations from its units after investors purchased a stake in the parent company last week that valued it at a whopping $32 billion. (previous post) Considering that Alibaba.com is probably the parent group’s most valuable asset and worth just $4 billion, I’m not sure where the other $28 billion of that sky-high valuation is coming from. All that said, this HiChina spin-off plan looks like mostly a distraction to divert attention away from Alibaba’s industry-lagging valuations.

Bottom line: Alibaba.com’s plan to spin off its HiChina infrastructure services unit is a ploy to generate excitement to boost its own industry-trailing valuation.

阿里巴巴网络有限公司（Alibaba.com）(1688.HK)日前发布公告称，公司拟分拆两年前收购的互联网基础设施服务提供商万网（HiChina），後者将赴美上市，其估值颇令人眼红。这是我能想到此时发布公告的唯一原因。目前是两年来首次公开募股（IPO）市场最糟时刻之一，赴美上市的中国企业尤其不受投资者青睐。让我们来看看相关数据。Alibaba.com是中国最大的B2B电子商务网站，2009年以5.4亿元收购万网股权。《华尔街日报》援引一名消息人士的说法称，万网上市时的市值或高达5亿美元，是阿里巴巴网络收购价的五倍。我相信，收购万网後，阿里巴巴为其带来了一些协同效应，也对其投入了更多资金，但仅两年价值就增长4倍，我认为，这样的涨幅有点过高。更可能的情况是，阿里巴巴网络觉得不被投资者看好。投资者近几个月抛售其股票，致使该公司市值自7月来缩水近一半，目前约为40亿美元。在中国互联网领域，对于一个领军企业来说，这样的市值非常低。门户网站新浪(SINA.O)目前市值为54亿美元，百度(BIDU.O)及腾讯(0700.HK)的市值分别为430亿美元和370亿美元。阿里巴巴网络母公司–阿里巴巴集团也面临压力。多家投资机构上周投资阿里巴巴集团，促使其市值高达320亿美元。考虑到阿里巴巴网络可能是该集团最有价值的资产，但其市值仅为40亿美元，我不知道阿里巴巴集团高得离谱的市值从何而来。总而言之，分拆万网的计划看似多半是为了转移投资者对阿里巴巴网络估值的关注。

一句话：阿里巴巴网络有限公司计划分拆万网，目的是为了提升公司落後于行业的估值。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ More Internet Froth in Alibaba Valuation, Dangdang Price War 阿里巴巴估值奇高凸显网络泡沫

◙ Taobao Mall Drums Up Hype in IPO Run-Up 淘宝商城开放或为IPO造势

◙ Yahoo: A Good Time to Break From Alibaba? 雅虎与阿里巴巴分手时机还不成熟

Investors Punish Sina for Slow Weibo Progress

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Leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) is discovering there’s nothing like a good rumor to hammer one’s stock. The company’s shares are down nearly 18 percent over the last two days, including a 15 percent tumble on Tuesday, apparently on concerns that Beijing is preparing to license all microblogging siites, and that Sina’s sector leading Weibo service is not among 4 companies set to receive licenses. (Chinese article) Beijing has certainly shown a recent tendency to want to license things on the Internet, first requiring electronic payments firms to register with the government and later making similar requirements for online mapping companies. But in both instances, the government has shown little or no inclination to severely limit the number of licenses, and instead these mandates look more like efforts to provide more government oversight to ensure orderly development. That said, we’ve heard little or no indication so far that Beijing wants to regulate other areas like search, music, video or online games by forcing all participants to get government licenses. In this case, I suspect the sell-off reflects investor fatigue over the near non-stop hype surrounding Weibo since Sina spun it off into a standalone unit earlier this year (previous post) in preparation for a separate listing as soon as next year if the unit can find a way to turn its vast user base of 200 million into a profit center. Even after the sell-off, Sina’s price to earnings ratio for the next year is quite high at 125, though that probably doesn’t include any contribution from Weibo. Inn that light, this sell-off seems to be a call by investors for Sina to tone down the Weibo hype and instead to show some profits for this asset that looks attractive for its user base but has yet to show any contribution to Sina’s bottom line. Given Sina’s strong record at execution, I would say that Weibo should finally be able to show investors some money as soon the end of next year.

Bottom line: A sell-off of Sina shares reflects investor impatience over development of its Weibo microblogging site, which could turn a profit as soon as the second half of next year.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Sina’s Weibo Steps Outside China 新浪微博进军日本市场

◙ Weibo in Smart Telecom Tie-up, Silly English Move 微博与中国电信合作实属明智之举 推英文版纯属浪费时间

Securities Regulator Seizes on US Confidence Crisis 中国证监会或介入企业海外上市

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The ongoing confidence crisis in the accounting practices of US-listed China stocks continues, with word that China’s securities regulator may be trying to squash the most commonly used route for Chinese firms to list overseas. Media are quoting industry sources saying the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has submitted a plan to the nation’s Cabinet asking it to shut down the route, known in the industry as use of Variable Interest Entities or VIEs, or at the very least require all companies that use this gray-area road to overseas listings to vet their financials through the Chinese regulator. (English article; Chinese article) There are clearly some alarming implications here, especially if the Cabinet takes the more extreme route and shuts down the VIE listing route that has been in effect for more than a decade now, staring with listings of Web names like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) as early as the late 1990s, and which has expanded since then to include other areas like media and microchips. While one can never exclude a more drastic action, the CSRC’s move looks more opportunistic, aimed at giving it more control over Chinese companies that go overseas to list by drawing on the ongoing confidence crisis over the accounting practices of some overseas-listed China companies. My own sources confirm that something is happening, but share a similar view that any concrete action is probably a year or more away and is highly unlikely to include an outright shut-down of the current VIE process, which has had tacit approval of the central government for more than a decade now. What finally emerges may be a route to overseas listing that will include an added stop through the securities regulator, which could somewhat slow the process and would probably have the added effect of weeding out many more questionable companies like the ones that created the current crisis. In the meantime, we could see a mini-rush of companies making IPOs over the next year if the market improves, as they race to get there before any new policies take effect.

Bottom line: The securities regulators’ attempt to insert itself into the overseas listing process for Chinese firms could lenthen the process, but will also weed out many more questionable companies.

中国赴美上市企业会计丑闻引发的信任危机仍在继续，有传闻称中国证券行业监管机构可能正建议取缔中国企业海外上市过程中最常用的VIE结构。媒体援引行业消息人士报导，中国证监会已经向国务院递交申请，建议国务院取缔业可变利益实体(VIE)这种有争议的公司结构，或是至少要求所有使用这种方式赴海外上市的公司将财务报告提交中国证监会进行审核。显然，这将产生重大影响，特别是如果国务院采取更严格做法，取缔VIE上市途径。VIE做法已经存在十多年，最早开始于上世纪90年代末期新浪(SINA.O)和网易(NTES.O)等互联网公司的海外上市，随後扩大到媒体和芯片等其他行业。尽管无法排除采取更严厉行动的可能性，证监会的行动看似更具机会主义性质，目的在于利用部分海外上市的中国公司因会计问题面临持续信心危机的机会，对海外上市企业加强管控。我的消息人士证实将有事情发生，但是也持有类似观点，即任何具体行动可能要等一年或更长时间才会开始，基本上没有可能全面取缔现有VIE程序，中央政府在过去十多年来始终对此做法采取默许态度。最终结果可能是，计划海外上市的公司必须增加在中国证监会接受审查的程序，这可能会在某种程度上延缓整个上市进程，也可能有效排除更多有问题的公司，就像引发当前危机的这些企业。同时，如果市场大势改善，未来一年很可能出现一波上市小高潮，争相赶在新政出台前完成上市。

一句话：证券监管机构试图介入中国公司赴海外上市进程，可能令上市进程延长，但也将清除更多有问题的公司。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Accounting Scandal Claims AutoChina As Second Big Victim

◙ Deloitte, SEC Clash in New Confidence Crisis Chapter

◙ Sharks Come Out in China Stock Crisis 信任危机冲击在美上市中资股

 

 

PPLive, Phoenix Video Initiatives Offer News Alternative 凤凰新媒体与PPLive的新尝试

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Two of China’s up-and-coming Internet firms, video sharing site PPLive and new media site Phoenix New Media (NYSE: FENG) are getting bold in their bid to attract more viewers by offering news and current affairs programs in a quiet but clear challenge to Beijing’s state-run media establishment. In the most recent development, Chinese media are reporting that PPLive, one of the country’s hottest video sites and a frequently mentioned IPO candidate, has formed a tie-up with Xinhuanet, the online arm of the state-run Xinhua news agency, to create a joint venture to produce short news segments for streaming online. (English article; Chinese article) That news comes just a week after Phoenix New Media said it has launched its own online current affairs program (company announcement) on its online site. Both initiatives are part of a broader trend that has also seen video sharing leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) also announce development of its own original programming in recent weeks. (previous post) This latest gamble looks very calculated and is also a smart move by both PPLive and Phoenix, both seeking to top demand for interesting alternatives from viewers tired of watching the same old state-sponsored newsspeak on TV. By choosing the well-connected Xinhua as its partner, PPLive should avoid angering Beijing too much, even as it explores interesting new formats and topics that central propaganda officials might consider inappropriate for mainstream TV. Likewise, Phoenix New Media is also well connected to propaganda officials through its parent, Phoenix Satellite Television (HKEx: 2008), which operates the only privately-owned and quite successful news channel in China. If one or both of these initiatives succeed, which seems likely, look for others like Youku and even Web portals like Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU) to follow with similar news video offerings in the months ahead.

Bottom line: New online video news shows by PPLive and Phoenix New Media look like smart moves with a good chance of success, aimed at Chinese consumers looking for more news alternatives.

两家後起的中国互联网公司新秀——视频分享网站PPLive和新媒体网站凤凰新媒体(FENG.N)为吸引更多观众，作风可谓大胆。他们通过提供新闻和时事节目向官方媒体发起了无声但明确的挑战。最近有中国媒体报导称，PPLive计划与新华网络电视台合作成立一家合资公司，制作新闻短片。此前一周，凤凰新媒体表示，公司已在其网站上推出了在线时事节目。视频分享网站优酷网(YOKU.O)最近几周也推出了其原创节目。这些最新举动看起来是精心策划，PPLive和凤凰新媒体的举动也颇为明智，两者都在寻求满足观众多样化的观看需求。PPLive在探索寻找宣传部门可能不适宜主流电视媒体的有趣新模式和话题，与人脉广大的新华社合作，应避免过份激怒中国政府。同样，凤凰新媒体通过凤凰卫视(2008.HK)也与宣传部门的官员保持着良好的关系。如果这些想法获得成功，目前看来成功机会也很大，优酷甚至新浪(SINA.O)、搜狐(SOHU.O)等门户网站也有望在未来数月提供类似的新闻视频节目。

一句话：PPLive和凤凰新媒体提供的新型在线视频新闻看来是明智之举，且成功机率很大，因中国消费者正寻找更多类型的新闻节目。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Hulu Makes First Global Stop in Japan, China Next?

◙ Youku’s New Formula: Sponsored Programs 优酷“新配方”：赞助项目

◙ Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

Renren Discovers Microblogging Too Late

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Leading Chinese social networking site Renren (NYSE: RENN) has finally discovered microblogging, with the launch of a new service, called Xiaozhan, designed to emulate Twitter to complement its traditional SNS site that looks and feels more like Facebook. (company announcement) The only problem is, China already has a company called Weibo, a unit of leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), which looks unstoppable as it signs up millions of new users each month and whose name has become interchangeable with microblogging in China. Rival microblogging sites operated by such big names as NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) have struggled to compete with Weibo, and Chinese search leader Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) even shuttered its own microblogging site earlier this year, acknowledging it was unable to play in the space. (previous post) In fact, Weibo, whose Chinese name actually means “microblog” in Chinese, launched its own traditional SNS site, called Qing, last month, in a bid to leverage its huge popularity to steal business from Renren and other traditional SNS sites like Kaixin. (previous post) Some  might argue that Renren needs to fight back with its own microblogging service to offer a more complete social networking experience, and that it can leverage its traditional SNS platform to lure many of its subscribers to this new Xiaozhan service. I agree to some extent that Renren needs to find related services to leverage its user base to grow. But unless it can offer something revolutionary in microblogging, which I seriously doubt, I would advise the company to look for other new opportunities and leave this space for Weibo. Barring anything unusual, I would expect this new Xiaozhan service to struggle for its entire existence, and could see Renren quietly shuttering the service in the next 1 to 2 years.

Bottom line: Renren’s newly launched microblogging service is destined for failure in the face of  insurmountable competition from Sina’s Weibo.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Renren Results: A Mixed Bag for Everyone 人人网业绩：苦乐参半

◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务

◙ New Weibo Makes First M&A Move 新浪微博并购忙

Boring Games, Video Drain Drag Down Shanda

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Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) has just reported some of its most unimpressive results ever, with a core video game business that looks like a zombie and an online video unit that looks even scarier. The bottom line is that Shanda saw its second-quarter profit plunge 95 percent amid stiff competition and few  compelling offerings in two of its core business, its online game unit operated by Shanda Games (Nasdaq: GAME) and its struggling video sharing business operated by Ku6 Media (Nasdaq: KUTV). (results announcement) Shanda said its game business, accounting for about two-thirds of its total revenue, grew just 5 percent in the second quarter from the first, and was up only a slightly better 19 percent year on year. Meantime, Ku6, which has been in a state of near chaos since Shanda Chairman Chen Tianqiao forced out its chief executive earlier this year (previous post), posted a massive net loss of $21.6 million, double the loss from the previous quarter. (company announcement) Strangely enough, Shanda shares rose a bit after the results came out, but gave back the gains in after-hours trade. Perhaps people are excited about the company’s upcoming plans to spin off its online literature unit, Cloudary, which is the lone positive spot in the company’s portfolio of otherwise unimpressive business units. (previous post) Or perhaps they suspect that Ku6 could soon become a takeover target, as evidenced by the recent talk of nearly all the major players, including Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), Tencent (HKEx: 700) and most recently Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) wanting to get into the video space. (previous post) Regardless, Shanda to me still looks like a long-term dud, and will probably stay that way as long as Chen remains at the head of the company — in other words for a long time!

Bottom line: Shanda Interactive’s latest results reveal a company in need of new leadership.

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Shanda Cloudary Returns to Market, Worth a Look

◙ Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

◙ Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

Sina Taps On Back Door Into Tudou 新浪可能收购土豆

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After a few weeks of talk, leading Web portal Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) has come out and told the world through a public filing that it now owns 9 percent of Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO), in what looks to me like a potential prelude to a future takeover of the newly listed online video site. Sina disclosed that it first acquired a 4.2 percent stake in Tudou for $31.2 million at the time of its listing, and then swooped in a short time later after the company’s shares sank on its debut to boost its holdings to 9 percent for an additional $35.2 million investment. (English article) While Tudou founder and chairman Gary Wang insists the investment is purely financial, it looks to me like Sina is testing the waters for a potential future takeover of the company. Similar takeovers have proven difficult in the past as the founders of such takeover targets are often major stakeholders in their companies, often controlling a majority of shares with the ability to quash any approaches. But in this case, Wang only holds 8.6 percent of Tudou shares, and is clearly under continued pressure to raise cash, as evidenced by his determination to go ahead with this IPO despite negative market sentiment. Many will recall that Sina has a poor record with major M&A, failing to close its purchase of Focus Media (Nasdaq: FMCN) several years ago and also fending off a hostile takeover bid by Shanda Interactive (Nasdaq: SNDA) before that. This Tudou purchase could be a more careful attempt to see how the markets react before making an outright offer for the company. Given the sudden interest in video sharing by nearly every major Internet company, including Tencent (HKEx: 700), which is reportedly in talks for a stake in industry leader Youku (NYSE: YOKU) (previous post), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sina launch a takeover attempt for Tudou by the end of this year, with an aim to turning it into a profitable, well-run online video site.

Bottom line: Sina’s purchase of a 9 percent stake of Tudou looks like a prelude to a future attempt to take over the company, with an offer possible as soon as the end of this year.

经过数周洽谈，中国第一大门户网站新浪(SINA.O)通过一份向监管机构提交的报告对世界宣布，新浪目前已经持有中国第二大在线视频网站——土豆网(TUDO.O)大约9%的股份。我认为此举可能为新浪未来收购土豆网拉开序幕。新浪透露在土豆网上市期间，首先投资3,120万美元购得土豆4.2%股份，土豆上市首秀股价大跌後，又追加投资3,520万美元，持股份额增至9%。虽然土豆创始人兼董事长王微坚称新浪目的仅在投资，但在我看来，新浪应该是在试水，看未来是否有可能收购土豆。以往此类收购通常比较困难，因为收购目标的创始人往往拥有多数股权，可以抵挡可能的收购意向。但在土豆网一例中，王微持股仅占8.6%，而且显然仍有筹资压力，在市场情绪下如此消极仍然继续IPO就是明证。很多人都应该记得新浪在重大并购案例中表现都比较差，比如，多年前并购分众媒体(FMCN.O)的失败之举，在此之前，盛大互动(SNDA.O)还曾企图敌意竞购新浪。新浪此次如有意收购土豆，可能会更加细心谨慎，直接向土豆报价前先看市场如何反应。中国几乎每一家主要互联网企业均突然对视频分享网站感兴趣，其中包括近来传洽谈购优酷股份的腾讯在内。考虑到这层因素，我认为新浪今年年底前有可能发起对土豆网的收购，并努力实现土豆网扭亏为盈，运转良好。

一句话：新浪持有土豆网9%股份看起来是未来收购土豆的序幕，新浪今年年底前可能就开始对土豆展开收购。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Tencent Sends Out Mixed Video Signals 腾讯若持股优酷 有助进军视频业

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Video Sharing: Let the Tie-Ups Begin

News Digest: August 31, 2011

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The following press releases and media reports about Chinese companies were carried on August 31. To view a full article or story, click on the link next to the headline.

══════════════════════════════════════════════════════

◙ UnionPay, China Mobile‘s (HKEx: 941) UMPay Aims For Payment License by 2011 (English article)

◙ Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) Buys $66.4 Million Tudou (Nasdaq: TUDO) Stake (English article)

◙ ZTE (HKEx: 763) Records 21.52% Increase in Revenue to RMB37.3 Bln in H1 (Businesswire)

◙ Giant Interactive (NYSE: GA) Announces Date of Sept 12 for Special Cash Dividend (PRNewswire)

◙ Group Buying Sites Evading More Than 500 Mln Yuan in Taxes – Report (Chinese article)

Gaopeng, Kaixin Spotlight China Internet Turmoil 高朋网、开心网凸显中国互联网混乱现状

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Signs of turbulence continue in China’s cutthroat and overinflated Internet space, with worrisome news coming from Kaixin, China’s second biggest social networking site (SNS), as well as Gaopeng, the group buying site operated by Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700). First Gaopeng. Despite its denials that anything is amiss, Gaopeng has just laid off 400 employees across its various locations, in what looks like the biggest in a steady stream of cuts that have made headlines in the Chinese media in recent weeks. (Chinese article) The company is facing intense competition from at least three major rivals, Lashou, Dianping and 55tuan, which collectively raised $500 million in venture funding earlier this year (previous post) and are clearly engaging in a cutthroat grab for share in this market that is certainly lucrative but lacks the size to support so many major players. I suspect that Groupon started up Gaopeng early this year to give itself a “China story” to please US investors in the run-up to its upcoming IPO. But now that it sees how cutthroat the market is, it could easily shutter Gapeng before the offering in a bid to hide what are undoubtedly some ugly financials from investors from this struggling joint venture. Meantime, Kaixin, which lost a race earlier this year with Renren (NYSE: RENN) to become China’s first publicly listed SNS, has broken a months-long silence to address recent reports of massive subscriber losses. The company’s low-key founder Cheng Binghao held an unusual media briefing in which he said Kaixin’s previous explosive growth rate is slowing to a more realistic level, and added the days of heady growth for China’s Internet may be finished. (Chinese article) Cheng said the company now has 117 million registered users, just behind Renren’s 124 million, though I suspect many of those are inactive, which Cheng hinted is the case. With that kind of a slowing growth story and the current general market turbulence, along with the threat of a new SNS service from Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) (previous post), I wouldn’t look for Kaixin to move ahead with its IPO until it has a better story to tell, which would be next year at the earliest.

Bottom line: Downbeat reports surrounding Gaopeng and Kaixin reflect a China Internet market in turmoil, with consolidation and few new IPOs likely through the rest of the year.

中国互联网急剧扩张的混乱状况持续，开心网和高朋网接连传来令人担忧的消息。先是美国Groupon和腾讯联合在华经营的团购网站–高朋网。尽管公司否认运营出现状况，但高朋网在各地站点已裁员400人，似乎是逐步裁员规模最大的一次，近几周高朋网裁员成为中国媒体热门焦点。高朋网面临团购市场竞争加剧的局面，大的竞争对手至少包括三家：拉手网、大众点评网和窝窝团，上述三家公司今年早些时候共募集5亿美元风险投资，也正积极投入团购市场的激烈厮杀。团购市场利润确实可观，但规模不足以支持如此多的大型团购网站。我怀疑，Groupon今年稍早成立高朋网时，是想给自己创造一个“中国故事”，从而在其IPO筹备阶段取悦美国投资者。但鉴于中国团购市场竞争激烈的现状，Groupon或在IPO前轻而易举地关闭高朋网，避免投资者看到这一合资公司中难看的财报。今年早些时候，开心网在赴美上市赛跑中输给人人网(RENN.N)，未能成为第一家在美国上市的社交网站。开心网打破一个月来的沉默，回应近期有关开心网用户大量流失的报导。开心网低调的创始人程炳皓罕见举行媒体吹风会，称开心网爆发性增长期已经过去，增长放缓至一个更实际的水平，并称中国互联网强势增长的时代或已结束。程炳皓透露，开心网现有1.17亿注册用户，稍低于人人网的1.24亿人，但我怀疑，其中许多并非活跃用户，程炳皓的表态似乎暗示了这一点。鉴于开心网用户增长放缓，目前市场普遍混乱，再加上新浪(SINA.O)微博的威胁，我认为，除非开心网能有更好的故事，否则不会推进其IPO，估计最早也要到明年了。

一句话：有关高朋网和开心网的负面消息表明，中国互联网市场现状混乱，今年内或将进行调整，不太可能有新的IPO。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Sina, Tencent Pose Threat in SNS, E-Commerce 新浪腾讯攻城掠地

◙ Advertising Squeeze Continues, Slowdown Looms 广告支出初显放缓迹象

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

 

Advertising Squeeze Continues, Slowdown Looms 广告支出初显放缓迹象

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Ad spending looks strong in the latest quarterly results of Sina (Nasdaq: SINA), Phoenix New Media (Nasdaq: FENG) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES), but big questions remain about the future as the portals continue to squeeze their advertisers for more and more money. Thursday saw a flood of earnings come out for major US-listed China firms, providing the perfect time to take a broader look at ad spending that is so crucial to many of these companies’ top and bottom lines. Leading Web portal Sina saw its ad revenues rise 26 percent, while NetEase saw a 16 percent gain and Phoenix ad revenues jumped a whopping 150 percent. (Sina results; NetEase results; Phoenix results) Sina and Phoenix both also said they expect advertising revenue growth to continue at a similar rate in the third quarter. But what’s interesting here is that Phoenix, the only company to provide more color on its ad revenues, said a major portion of its big ad revenue jump came from increased spending by existing advertisers who spent 82 percent more in this year’s second quarter on average versus a year earlier. Leading search site Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU), which derives nearly all its revenue from advertisers, made similar comments last month, saying its customers spent 50 percent more in this year’s second quarter versus a year earlier. (previous post) This kind of sharp spending increase by individual customers reflects stiff competition as companies battle for market share, and a growing number of executives who are seeing their costs soar have said the trend is unsustainable. Barring a sudden collapse, which looks unlikely based on forecasts from Sina and Phoenix, the boosted ad spending looks set to continue at least into the third quarter. But I would expect to see a slowdown by the end of the year as fatigue starts to infect spent-out advertisers, followed by an accelerating downturn into 2012.

Bottom line: Results from Sina, NetEase and Phoenix New Media show healthy ad spending will continue through the third quarter, but advertiser fatigue will lead to a slowdown by year end.

新浪<SINA.O>、凤凰新媒体<FENG.N>和网易<NTES.O>最新季度财报显示，广告支出大幅增长，但由於各门户网站为了增加收入，继续努力从广告商身上赚取更多费用，未来仍将面临较大问题。赴美上市的大型中国企业周四纷纷发布财报，为更广泛地审视广告支出创造完美时机。广告支出对许多公司的营收和利润至关重要。今年第二季度，新浪广告收入增长26%，网易和凤凰分别增长16%和150%。新浪和凤凰均称，预计第三季度广告收入将有类似增幅。但有意思的是，凤凰称其广告收入大幅增长，主要归功于现有广告商提高支出，第二季度同比平均增加82%。中国搜索引擎巨头百度<BIDU.O>几乎所有收入均来自广告投放，上月也发表过类似评论，称其客户在今年第二季度广告支出同比增加50%。个人客户广告支出大幅增加表明，各公司正加紧争夺市场份额，竞争日益激烈。越来越多的高管注意到成本大幅上涨，称这一势头不可持续。除非出现意外情况，广告支出增长料将持续至第三季度。但我认为，这一增势年底将放缓，广告商支出将初显疲态，2012年广告支出将加速放缓。

一句话：新浪、网易和凤凰新媒体的财报显示，良性广告支出将持续至第三季度，但广告商疲态将导致广告支出年底放缓。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Baidu’s One-Dimensional Growth Story Continues 百度亮丽财报难掩前景不确定性

 

 

Gaopeng Lay-Offs Auger Ad Spending Downturn 1高朋裁员预示网络广告支出或大幅下降

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There’s more negative buzz coming from Gaopeng, the group buying joint venture between Groupon and Tencent (HKEx: 700), which, when combined with other industry noise indicates a sharp downturn in online ad spending may be on the horizon. Just two weeks after reporting that Gaopeng had stopped advertising on Baidu (Nasdaq: BIDU) and Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) because they were too costly (previous post), Chinese media are reporting that Gaopeng has begun laying off staff to cut costs. (English article) The reports seem a bit fragmented and indicate a gradual lay offs began as early as April. But what does seem clear is that Gaopeng isn’t gaining nearly enough sales and revenue in China to justify the rapid build-up in its staffing and ad spending since its formation late last year. The latest Gaopeng developments echo similar recent buzz, with e-commerce executives saying competition has become incredibly fierce and unsustainable, and many players will be forced to cut back their advertising spending in the months ahead to keep from losing money. None of this should be surprising, since China now boasts at least three other big group-buying sites that have received major new funding this year (previous post), and the e-commerce space has also become a jungle in a very short time, with names like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) joining a space that was already crowded with big homegrown names like Alibaba and 360Buy. (previous post) This kind of hyper-competition can hardly be comforting for companies that derive a big part of their revenue from advertising spending, most notably  Baidu, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Sohu (Nasdaq: SOHU), whose sites are popular with advertisers. I would look for all three of these companies to report sharp slowdowns in revenue growth starting late this year, and some consolidation in both the e-commerce and group buying space, which could see Gaopeng close down as Groupon focuses on more promising growth markets.

Bottom line: Web firms that rely heavily on ad spending will see a sharp slowdown in revenue growth around the end of the year, as advertisers slash spending amid fierce competition.

美国团购网站Groupon和腾讯<0700.HK>合资的高朋团购再传出负面消息，结合业内其它消息来看，网络广告支出大幅下降或初露端倪。两周前有报导称高朋因费用太高已停止在百度<BIDU.O>和谷歌<GOOG.O>的广告投放。目前中国媒体报导称，高朋网已开始裁员，以削减成本。这些零散报导指出，高朋网早在4月就开始逐步裁员。但可以确定的是，高朋网自去年底成立以来，其在华销售和营收表现一般，与其雇员人数和广告支出的迅速增加不成正比。 业内近期出现类似情况，电子商务高管称，团购行业竞争白热化，发展变得不可持续，许多团购网未来几个月为避免亏损，将被迫削减广告支出。这些都并不令人惊讶，中国今年至少有三大团购网获得大规模融资，电子商务领域竞争也变得异常激烈，本土已有阿里巴巴和京东网等巨头，而沃尔玛也进军中国电子商务领域。这种激烈竞争让收入主要来自广告的公司很难感到欣喜，例如百度、新浪<SINA.O>和搜狐<SOHU.O>。我预计，今年底开始，这三家公司的收入增长将大幅下降，电子商务和团购网领域都将出现整合，由於Groupon关注更具增长潜力的市场，可能会关闭高朋网。

一句话：由於团购网和电子商务领域竞争激烈，广告商将大幅削减开支，严重依赖广告收入的网络公司营收增长将在年底大幅下降。

Related postings 相关文章:

◙ Trouble Lurks in China Group Buying, as Gaopeng Drops Baidu 高朋停止百度的广告投放 团购行业初露窘相

◙ Groupon in China: Real Deal or Same Old Story?

◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务