Despite their late arrival to the game, Sina (Nasdaq: SINA) and Tencent (HKEx: 700) could soon become potent forces in their newly chosen fields of SNS and e-commerce, respectively. Sina looks the sharpest in this latecomer strategy, reporting that its Boke Qing social networking site, which held its beta launch last month (previous post) has already registered its 1 millionth user. (English article) Sina has achieved the breakneck growth by packaging Qing as a more substantial complement to its wildly popular Weibo microblogging service, considered the Twitter of China. Qing, which links seamlessly with Weibo, is likely to grow exponentially over the next few months, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it reach 10 million users by year end. If it achie
ves that kind of growth, it could easily challenge industry leader Renren (NYSE: RENN), which reported 31 million users in the first quarter of this year. If Qing really achieves such fast take-up and Weibo starts generating some profits, I could see Sina packaging these two units together and making a US public listing for the pair as soon as the end of 2012. Meantime, Tencent has detailed plans to develop a mega-platform for both B2C and C2C called Paipai, and will put 500 million yuan, or about $80 million, behind the effort. Like Sina, Tencent has proved to be very adept at leveraging a huge user base for its wildly popular QQ instant messaging service into other areas, overtaking Shanda (Nasdaq: SNDA) and NetEase (Nasdaq: NTES) in just a few years to become China’s biggest online game operator. Of course, it will face stiffer competition in e-commerce, going up against sector giant Taobao, along with other names like Dang Dang (NYSE: DANG), 360Buy and Wal-Mart-invested (NYSE: WMT) Yihaodian. Despite that, I’d still give Tencent’s e-commerce initiative a fair shot at success due to its unique position as China’s Internet leader, while Qing’s success looks almost 100 percent guaranteed due to its links to Sina and Weibo.
Bottom line: Sina’s new Qing SNS service could become a major player by year-end, while Tencent’s new e-commerce initiative also stands a good chance of success.
新浪(SINA.O)在社交网络服务领域、腾讯(0700.HK: 行情)在电子商务领域，都算是後来者，但可能迅速崛起。新浪势头凌厉，上月启动轻博客公测版後，其注册用户已突破100万。新浪以轻博客作为微博的补充，两款产品实现相互联通，实现用户数量迅猛增长。新浪轻博客在未来几个月可能呈飞速成长，若到今年底用户达到1,000万，我一点都不会惊讶。若这成为现实，则可挑战该领域领头羊–人人网(RENN.N)，今年第一季人人网注册用户已达到了3,100万人。如果轻博客果真发展神速，微博也开始盈利，我认为，最快到明年底，新浪就可能将轻博客与微博整合到一起，在美国上市。与此同时，腾讯也制定详细计划，打造B2C和C2C商务平台拍拍网，将为此投入5亿元资源。与新浪相似，腾讯也善于利用其庞大的QQ用户群，将服务拓展至新领域，短短几年时间就取代盛大(SNDA.O)和网易(NTES.O)，成为中国最大的网络游戏运营商。当然，腾讯在电子商务领域面临的竞争会更激烈一些，需要面对当当网(DANG.N)、京东商城、和沃尔玛(WMT.N)投资的1号店等强劲对手。但鉴于腾讯在中国互联网领域的地位，我还是对其在电子商务领域的尝试寄予厚望。至于新浪的轻博客，其成功几乎没有悬念。
一句话：新浪轻博客到今年底将成为社交网络服务领域重要力量，而腾讯在电子商务领域新尝试也很有希望取得成功。
Related postings 相关文章:
◙ Sina Gets Serious on SNS With New “Blogging Light” 新浪推出轻博客 大力进军社交网络业务
◙ Wal-Mart Buys Into China E-Commerce 沃尔玛进军中国电子商务
◙ Belle, Baidu See Beauty in Online Shoe Store 百度和百丽投资优购网或为明智之举
which raised $350 million in a May IPO, isn’t blocked in China, but also that it hasn’t made an especially strong effort to cultivate the China market. Frankly speaking, I think the market for a more professional-type service like Linked In in China is probably relatively small, as most people who use SNS in China tend to be quite young and like to mostly chatter on these sites. But as these same young people grow up and move into white collar jobs, sites like Dajie could easily become a hot ticket in the China Internet market, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Linked In takes a serious look at China in the next 2 to 3 years as that happens, assuming that China doesn’t lock it out the way it has with other social networking sites like Facebook and Twitter. (
users with the ability to post longer messages, as well as photos and other multimedia offerings. Does this sound a bit like Facebook? The beta site at qing.weibo.com says the service already has about 700,000 users, though I’ve no doubt that is probably a bit inflated. Still, considering Google’s (Nasdaq: GOOG) early success with its new SNS product, Google Plus, despite being years behind Facebook, I’d say this new Qing product, which smartly draws on Weibo’s huge user base, stands a strong chance of success and could quickly pose a major challenge to industry leaders Renren (NYSE: RENN) and Kaixin, as well as SNS products being developed by established net giants like Tencent (HKEx: 700). From a broader perspective, Qing will undoubtedly be coupled with Weibo into a single SNS business unit at Sina, which is hoping to quickly build up the company for a blockbuster IPO in the next two to three years. It’s still too early to say if Qing will be able to make big headway in the market, but I would say the chances are good that it could quickly catch up with and possibly even overtake Renren or Kaixin in the next couple of years.
