Bottom line: China’s telcos won’t accelerate their 5G network building even if licenses are issued earlier than expected this year, though foreign equipment suppliers could benefit if Huawei is hobbled by the US-China trade wars.
5G coming to China sooner than expected?
What a difference a decade makes. That’s about how long has passed between China’s issuing of 3G wireless licenses and the upcoming issue of 5G licenses two generations later. I remember in the 3G era how China dragged its feet forever, and finally issued licenses several years after the rest of the world. This time around it appears to be moving more quickly, driven by what appear to be political and economic factors.
The topic has popped into the headlines again this week with word that China’s telecoms regulator will “soon” issue 5G licenses. (English article) The signals coming from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) have been pointing to a release of licenses this year all along. But this could mean that will happen sooner rather than later, since many were previously expecting licenses toward the end of the year. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: The US case against Huawei’s CFO is likely to end with her release on technical grounds as part of a deal between the US and China, though the company could still face punishment for illegally selling US products to Iran.
Huawei CFO detained for violating US anti-Iran sanctions
It’s a few days old by now, but I wanted to begin the new week by sharing some of my thoughts on the recent blow-up involving telecoms equipment giant Huawei’sCFO, who was detained in Canada at Washington’s request. At this point I mostly want to give my views on the politics behind this story, and also my take on how things are likely to play out.
I’ll start off with the view that this particular story has been a long time in the making, and anyone who thinks it was cooked up by Donald Trump as an excuse to wring concessions out of China is mistaken. I’ll also give my view that this kind of come-uppance for a corporate giant like Huawei is relatively deserved, since Chinese companies have basically thrived and grown as quickly as they have by frequently thumbing their noses at the law. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A Bloomberg report on Chinese government spying microchips in hardware used by Apple, Amazon and others may be flawed, but highlights the potential for such spying due to China’s important place in the global supply chain.
Controversy builds over story of China spyware
As I return to blogging after a couple weeks absence, I wanted to weigh in on an explosive story that ran last week in Bloomberg about tiny spying chips that had been secretly loaded by China’s military onto globally used motherboards. Quite a bit has happened since the original story’s publication (English article), which said that tiny custom-made chips developed by the People’s Liberation Army had secretly been installed into motherboards assembled in China by US hardware maker Supermicro (OTC: SMCI).
The story, which went out of its way to quote quite a few unnamed sources to bolster its credibility, went on to say that those motherboards had been used in servers used by a wide range of companies and government agencies, including Apple(Nasdaq: AAPL) and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN). Everyone initially applauded the ground-breaking report, which appeared to show how China could easily insert itself into the global high-tech complex by taking advantage of its important place in the hardware supply chain. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A court order barring Micron Technology from China and Donald Trump’s attempts to keep China Mobile out of the US reflect blurring lines between business and politics in heightening US-China trade tensions.
Fujian court bars Micron sales in China
Two new headlines are showing how trade tensions between the US and China are spilling over into the high-tech realm, while also reflecting a certain amount of confusion and twisting of the facts. Leading the somewhat misleading headlines is an item that has U.S. memory chip giant Micron (Nasdaq: MU) suddenly being shut out of China for a number of its products due to a patent dispute. The other headline has Donald Trump saying that leading Chinese telco China Mobile(HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL) shouldn’t be allowed to offer services in the US due to national security concerns.
The Micron story is being spun by some media as having a US-China trade tensions angle, when really that’s not the case and it’s just a typical patent dispute. The same could be said for the much larger case involving a US ban on telecoms equipment maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), which is being spun as part of US-China trade tensions, even though ZTE is being punished for violating much older US sanctions against sales to Iran. China Mobile, on the other hand, is clearly a Trump pet project and does reflect his protectionist tendencies. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: ZTE will experience fallout from its run-in with Washington through much of next year, and could see an even longer-term hit to its global business as international customers start to look for alternate suppliers.
ZTE off life support, but major challenges remain
The saga of embattled smartphone and telecoms equipment maker ZTE(HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 00006) appears to be nearing an end, as trading resumed in the company’s stock following an official settlement with Washington over illegal sales to Iran. The ending to this story certainly came with a big climax, with ZTE shares plunging by 42 percent in Hong Kong on the first day after trading resumed.
They fell by a smaller 10 percent in China on Wednesday, but only because China places a 10 percent limit on daily rises and declines in individual stock prices. Not surprisingly, the stock was down another 10 percent in China on its second day of trade, while the Hong Kong shares did a dead cat bounce and were up slightly. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: A US investigation of Huawei into possible illegal sales of US-made equipment to Iran is old news, and may be getting dredged up now to give Washington leverage in its ongoing trade frictions with China.
Huawei under microscope for potential illegal sales to Iran
Some might argue that US sanctions against telecoms equipment maker ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) are just the prelude to a much bigger story that could now be sharping up, with word that ZTE’s much larger rival Huaweiis being probed in a similar case. The subject at the heart of this matter involves sales of American-made equipment to Iran, which would have violated earlier US sanctions against such sales to pressure Iran to curtail its nuclear program.
In fact, I’m quite surprised that this probe against Huawei is coming back into the headlines just now. Media reported on this potential probe as early as 2013, at the same time reports first emerged about a similar probe into ZTE. Additional reports appeared about a year ago saying an unnamed company was being investigated for violations similar to ZTE, with strong hints that the company was Huawei. (previous post) Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Washington’s new ban on ZTE from buying US-made components is not as political as China is portraying it, and is likely to be resolved within a few weeks after ZTE takes remedial actions related to its violation of an earlier agreement.
Washington cuts off ZTE from US suppliers
An ongoing tiff between Washington and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) is in the headlines yet again, with word that the US has banned all American companies from selling to the Chinese smartphone and telecoms equipment maker for seven years. This particular story is filled with political overtones due to the anti-China stance of Donald Trump, who has accused Beijing of unfair trade practices. But it’s also a tale that stretches back for at least six years, which means this story began well before the current US administration.
The latest headlines are quite straightforward, and have Washington banning the sale of US-made telecoms equipment to ZTE for violating an earlier agreement reached last year. (English article) The source of this conflict dates back to 2012, when Washington first began probing ZTE for selling American-made equipment to Iran in violation of US sanctions that at that time were designed to punish the country for its nuclear program. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei’s strong revenue and profit growth for 2017 are coming largely on the back of its home China market, which should continue to boost the company as Beijing aggressively pushes upcoming 5G services.
Huawei finds land of plenty in hometown market
Telecoms giant Huaweiis in the headlines as the new week begins, with word that the company has rekindled its profit growth in its latest reporting year. Unlike other companies, Huawei isn’t publicly traded and thus isn’t required to release any financials, which always means we need to take their numbers with a slight grain of salt. But generally speaking the company does seem to be trying to report meaningful figures, at least based on past years when the results weren’t all that flattering.
This time around the results look good, at least the final ones for revenue and profit growth. But a closer look shows something that many of us know, namely that the company is heavily dependent on its home market for that relatively strong showing. Some of that is probably deserved, as Huawei has emerged as a maker of quality products for both its core networking equipment and also its newer smartphones, which count myself as one of their fans and owners. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei’s latest big financial commitment to the UK is mostly for show, but Britain could still emerge as a winner over the longer term if Huawei conducts more R&D work in its British labs.
Huawei gives $4.2 billion gift to UK
After getting the cold shoulder from the US for its smartphones, telecoms superstar Huaweiis turning increasingly to Europe, and specifically to Britain, for consolation. That’s the key takeaway from the latest reports that say Huawei has told British Prime Minister Theresa May that it will spend a further 3 billion pounds ($4.2 billion) on procurement from the UK on top of its other commitments to the country. (English article)
This particular move seems mostly political, and also it’s questionable how significant it is. Huawei made its commitment last week during a trip by Theresa May to China, and this kind of mega-commitment is quite common during these meetings between Chinese and global leaders. The fact of the matter is that Huawei posted 600 billion yuan ($97 billion) in sales last year, meaning it had to spend perhaps half of that amount, or around $50 billion, on procurement of various components for its core networking equipment and smartphones. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: Huawei’s decision to go ahead with a US market entry for its latest high-end phone, despite collapse of a tie-up with AT&T, is likely to produce very limited results due to lack of a carrier partner.
Huawei goes solo into US
If you can’t get a serious business partner, at least get a pretty face. That seems to be the message coming from a frustrated Huawei, which has announced it has signed on “Wonder Woman” star and model Gal Gadot as chief experience officer as it prepares to enter the US. This somewhat frivolous move was most likely part of a bigger announcement the company hoped to make for a grander entry to the US in partnership with corporate partner AT&T (NYSE: T).
But as many market watchers may already know, the AT&T deal reportedly collapsed at the last moment for unexplained reasons. The new tie-ups were all set to be unveiled at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) taking place this week in Las Vegas. While the show went on and Huawei announced plans to release a version of its high-end Mate 10 in the US, with Gadot as product spokeswoman, the AT&T announcement never came. Read Full Post…
Bottom line: ZTE’s new dual-screen smartphone will turn some heads and raise the company’s profile briefly due to the novelty factor, but the effect will quickly fade due to lack of practical uses.
ZTE tries two screens
You can’t blame ’em for trying. That’s the first thing that came to mind when I saw the announcement and some photos of a new foldable ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) smartphone with two screens. This clearly looks like the company’s attempt to find new relevance in the cutthroat smartphone market, where phones increasingly look and feel the same. The move seems to be part of a recent trend that says “give them more space” on their screen, which others are trying to do by creating phones whose entire face is taken up by the screen.
I’m not really a gadget person, but from a business perspective I do have to credit ZTE for trying to find something new to distinguish itself from the pack. The company was one of China’s earliest success stories in the cellphone and later the smartphone space. But a big portion of its products still go to US wireless carriers who stamp their own brand on the phones and give little or no space to their Chinese supplier. Read Full Post…
