Solar Comeback Rising, Clouds Still Shadow Trina 光伏产业复苏中天合光能仍疑云密布

By newsdoug on August 3, 2011

Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) has just announced updated guidance for its second quarter that looks downright ugly, making its rosy outlook for the rest of the year even stranger, possibly signalling a bottom for the struggling solar sector in its worst-ever downturn. Just days before reporting its results, Trina has told the market it expects its unit sales to come in around 10 percent below its previous guidance, while margins will miss previous guidance by an even sharper 20 percent. (company announcement) But what’s decidedly odd here is that the company is sticking to its previous full-year guidance for 65-70 percent shipment growth on the back of a sharp turnaround in the second half of the year. The conflicting news initially spooked investors, who sold off Trina shares but then later started buy, causing the company’s stock to end down a modest 1.4 percent on Tuesday, well ahead of much bigger losses for the broader indexes. The unusual second-quarter guidance looks even stranger in light of much more positive second-quarter guidance given a day later by rival Yingli (NYSE: YGE), which said its results will come in at or higher than previous forecasts (company announcement). I’m going to be a bit cynical here and note that Trina was one of two companies whose audit committee chairmen suddenly resigned last month (previous post), which hinted at potential accounting issues within the firm. That said, Trina’s sudden sharp shortfall in quarterly results looks suspiciously like part of an effort to quietly cover up accounting issues that need to be “resolved”. If that’s the case, then the company should be commended on the one hand for resolving those issues, but also criticized for the way in which it did so. Regardless, investors are clearly focused on the future, which includes fresh incentives from Beijing for building new solar power plants (previous post) and a possible pick-up in demand from other global markets. Still, I would be wary of Trina’s stock for the short term, even as the broader solar sector appears on the cusp of a comeback.

Bottom line: The solar sector’s downturn may have bottomed out in the second quarter, but look for continued uncertainty around Trina following the resignation of its audit committee chairman.

天合光能(Trina Solar)(TSL.N)刚刚下调了第二季度光伏电池出货量和毛利率的预估，使其对今年馀下时间作出的靓丽前景描绘更显诡异，可能也为苦苦挣扎的光伏产业发出了一个陷入谷底的信号。天合光能在距离季度财报发布仅几天的时间下调预估，预计其光伏电池出货量比此前预估低10%，而毛利率相比此前预估则降幅更大，达到20%。但奇怪的是，天合光能依然坚持此前65%-70%的全年出货量增长预估，因公司预计今年下半年将有大转机。这种逻辑相悖的消息起初吓坏了投资者，他们先抛售天合光能的股票，随後又买进，造成该公司周二股价收低1.4%，但依然好于大盘表现。而其竞争对手英利绿色能源(YGE.N)一天后表示该公司业绩符合或高于其此前预估，英利第二季度更为正面的预估，使得天合光能异乎寻常的第二季度预估看起来更为奇怪。我在这里要做个小小地恶意揣测，并要指出天合光能的独立董事兼审计委员会主席上月突然离职，这暗示着公司内部可能潜存着审计问题。这就是说，天合光能大幅下调季度业绩，看起来似乎像在悄然掩盖“亟需解决的”审计问题。若果真如此，那麽我一方面既要称赞天合光能对这些问题的解决，又要批评其解决之道。无论如何，投资者明显着眼的是未来，包括中国对修建新的光伏发电的最新激励措施以及全球其他市场可能增加的光伏需求。但我短期内对天合光能的股价还是有所警惕，即便整个光伏产业似乎都在反弹回归中。

一句话：光伏产业的疲软可能在第二季度见底，但伴随着审计委员会主席的辞职，天合光能似乎还有不确定性。

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