Unicom, China Telecom Come Nipping at China Mobile’s 3G Heels 中国联通和中国电信紧盯中国移动3G市场

By newsdoug on May 23, 2011

Opportunity rings for Unicom, China Telecom It’s not exactly news, but the latest 3G mobile statics for April do paint a compelling picture for why China’s mobile landscape is likely to change radically in the next two to three years. The latest data show that China Unicom (NYSE: CHU; HKEx: 762) officially cracked the 20 million barrier for 3G subscribers in April, with its addition of 1.8 million users, while dominant carrier China Mobile (NYSE: CHL; HKEx: 941) added 2.4 million 3G users to reach 29.4 million. China Telecom only releases quarterly numbers, but its 3G base at the end of March stood at 16.4 million, as it added new users at a rate of about 1.3 million a month. I usually don’t like to overwhelm people with numbers, but these figures paint an interesting picture, with China Mobile now controlling 45 percent of the 3G market, to Unicom’s 30 percent and China Telecom’s 25 percent. This ratio is far different from the overall market, which is 70 percent controlled by China Mobile, and is more likely to represent the picture for the next 2-3 years as Unicom and China Telecom aggressively promote their superior 3G networks as China Mobile limps along with its inferior home-grown 3G technology and pressures the regulator to let it roll out a better 4G network sooner rather than later. Of course the regulator will ignore this pressure, as this kind of more balanced market share is exactly what it wants to create a more level playing field and give Chinese consumers a better choice for their mobile service.

Bottom line: China Telecom and Unicom will be strong bets for the next 2-3 years, picking up steady share on China Mobile as Beijing looks to create more balance in its mobile market.

虽然不是什麽新闻了，但最近出炉的3G统计数字的确可以说明，未来两三年中国的移动通信版图可能有巨大变化。数字显示，中国联通<0762.HK> <CHU.N>3G用户在4月正式突破2,000万大关，其中四月新增180万。而行业龙头中国移动<0941.HK><CHL.N>3G用户达到2,940万，其中四月新增240万用户。中国电信仅公布了季度数字，但3月底的数字显示其3G用户达到1,640万，相当於今年一季度每个月增加130万。我通常不喜欢用数字来吓唬人，但这些数字的确描述出了一幅有趣的图景–中国移动占有3G市场45%的份额，中国联通占30%，中国电信占25%。这个比例与总体市场的情况大不相同–中国移动占到总体市场份额的70%。但随着中国联通和中国电信积极推广其占优的3G网络，中国移动则继续受制於其落後的3G技术，这很可能代表了未来两三年的情况。中国移动可能向监管者施压，要求尽快推出4G网络，当然监管者将会无视这种压力，因为监管者所希望看到的正是这种更为平衡的市场格局，好让竞争更为公平，消费者也得以更好地选择他们想要的服务。

一句话：因监管者希望看到市场竞争格局更加平衡，未来两三年，中国电信和中国联通将逐步侵蚀中国移动的市场份额，未来2-3年将有不俗表现。