US, China in Auto Tit-For-Tat Tariffs 中美贸易战若升级将两败俱伤

In what should come as a big surprise to no one, China has singled out cars imported from the US for special duties after the US took similar action against Chinese-made tires in response to an anti-dumping complaint. This kind of tit-for-tat punitive tariff is relatively common and usually doesn’t do much damage as the amount of product affected is small, but in this case it provides some sobering insight over what could happen if another looming trade war involving solar cells escalates. In this latest instance, China will slap extra duties of up to 13 percent on US-made cars from GM (NYSE: GM) and Chrysler, and will even impose smaller punitive duties on cars made in the US by German auto makers like BMW (Frankfurt: BMW) and Daimler (Frankfurt: DAI). (English article) The move seems mostly symbolic, as the top 2 US automakers, GM and Ford (NYSE: F), already manufacture most of their models for the China market in China through their various joint ventures. Both the US and China are usually careful to keep these kinds of trade wars from getting out of control and affecting their broader economic relation, but a looming battle over alternate energy could soon test that formula, with the potential to blow up into a much bigger war that could deal a sharp setback to the drive to develop clean, renewable energy sources. Regular readers will know that of course I’m talking about the US investigation into unfair subsidies for Chinese solar cell makers, which now account for more than half of the world’s output, due in part to strong support from Beijing. A group advising the US body conducting the investigation has already determined that Beijing unfairly subsidizes its solar panel makers and recommended the levying of punitive tariffs, which are likely to come sometime early next year. Beijing has already hinted that it could retaliate with its own punitive tariffs for US-made polysilicon, the main ingredient used to make solar cells. That kind of escalation will ultimately benefit no one, either in the US or China, and could even deal a huge setback to a global solar industry already struggling through a sharp downturn.

Bottom line: China’s punitive levies against US cars looks like a retaliatory move for similar tariffs by the US against Chinese tires, and is unlikely to have any major impact on US automakers’ China sales.

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