Youku Ambushes Market with Massive Follow-on, Investors Bite 优酷利用投资者心理大捞一笔

By newsdoug on May 23, 2011

Money-losing video sharing site Youku (NYSE: YOKU) took a big chance with a massive follow-on offering less than a half year after its original New York IPO. Based on the early reaction, investors seem to be buying into this story despite some signs of doubt. After making its initial $200 million IPO in December and seeing its shares more than double on their debut (English article), the company returned to the market late last week and raised another $530 million by offering shares at a 3 percent discount to the Youku seizes on investor greed latest market price but still four times the original IPO price. (English article) The stock promptly fell nearly 4 percent to below the offer price as investors finally realized that this company may be just slightly overhyped. All things considered, this new capital raising was a really smart move by Youku and its investors, which took advantage of huge interest in their company by short-term investors to squeeze more money out of them so they could continue to gamble on its stock. If it uses the money to acquire a major rival like Tudou, which is reportedly up for sale (previous post), then so much the better. The only problem is, at some point — probably in the near future — people will grow tired of this stock and realize it’s way overvalued, leading to a sell-off as it sinks to more appropriate levels. When that happens, look for the sell-off to be fast and furious, as the same short-term investors who previously bet on this company to notch big gains become short sellers looking for equally big declines.

Bottom line: Youku was smart to take advantage of investor greed to raise a huge chunk of new cash, but that same greed will ultimately take a toll on its shares when long buyers turn to short sellers.

业绩亏损的优酷<YOKU.N>从不到半年前在纽约上市以来，凭借投资者对视频分享网站的热烈追捧而大捞了一笔。从市场此前的反应看来，虽然坊间存在一些质疑，但投资者对公司描绘的前景非常买账。优酷去年12月首次公开发行(IPO)，首日股价大涨近两倍，筹得2亿美元。上周末，优酷又凭借增发筹得5.3亿美元，虽然其增发价格比最新市场价提供3%折扣，但仍大约相当於最初发行价格的四倍。但当投资者终於发现可能有点高估这家公司後，股价随即比增发价跌去4%。综合考虑各项因素，优酷此次筹资是个相当聪明的举动，因为这一次的筹资，利用了短期投资者对优酷巨大的兴趣，从他们手中吸引到更多投资，牵制住他们，让他们在优酷股票上继续赌下去。如果优酷利用这笔资金并购了一个重量级的对手，譬如待价而沽的土豆网，那就更好了。唯一的问题是——也许在不远的将来–人们可能会这支股票感到厌倦，并发现高估了优酷，然後会在股价向合理价位下跌的进程中抛售。当优酷股价凶猛下跌时，那些早前押注优酷美好前景的短期投资者就会摇身变成做空者，期待从其汹涌跌幅中牟利。

一句话：优酷很聪明地利用投资者的贪婪心理筹到了一大笔钱，但当做多投资者变成做空，优酷也可能会搬起石头砸了自己的脚。