ZTE Results: Waiting for Returns 中兴坚持低成本手机策略亟需尽早盈利

By newsdoug on March 29, 2012

Handset campaign erodes ZTE profits I’m feeling slightly artistic this morning, hence my choice of headline for this posting which is a reference to the famous Samuel Beckett play “Waiting for Godot,” about 2 people excitedly waiting for a person who will probably never appear. The same story could be true for ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063), whose just-released results showed plunging profits and rapidly rising costs as the company takes a risky bet on the low-cost smartphone market that may bring in lots of new revenue but never pay any returns in the form of new profits. (results announcement; English article) Let’s take a closer look at the earnings, which show the company’s profit plunged nearly 50 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter, accelerating from a 40 percent decline in the previous quarter as profits for the year fell 37 percent. A closer look at the company’s income statement shows that costs rose sharply, with R&D and marketing expenses up 20 percent and 25 percent, respectively. Furthermore, the company’s annual profit would have tumbled even more if not for a big jump in one-time investment gains. ZTE has been quite direct about its desire to become a top-five cellphone maker in the next 2-3 years, and has embarked on a focused strategy to achieve that goal by rolling out a new line of lower cost smartphones priced very aggressively. That goal is certainly commendable and I applaud the company for staying focused on its aim despite the profit erosion that is clearly a cause of concern for investors. The company’s Hong Kong-listed shares are down 45 percent over the last 52 weeks, and have lost around 20 percent of their value so far this year, even as the broader market has rallied about 15 percent. The cellphone gamble is at once both a smart move and a very risky one. On the one hand, ZTE realizes its need to diversify beyond its core networking equipment business, which has run into numerous roadblocks in the last few years from western markets concerned about security issues. Cellphones are much less controversial and have steadier sales, and ZTE is drawing on its expertise as a low-cost manufacturer to focus on the lower end of the booming market for smartphones that can take advantage of high-speed 3G and 4G wireless networks. The only problem is that ZTE is hardly the only company to notice the trend, and is joining a very crowded market that includes heavyweights like Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Samsung (Seoul: 005930) and Nokia (Helsinki: NOK1V), not to mention hometown rival Huawei Technologies, which is making a similar aggressive smartphone play. At the end of the day there’s no reason a few companies can’t succeed in the low-cost smartphone market, and ZTE could certainly be one of those. But unless it can start to show some profits by the second half of this year from its cellphone gamble, look for trouble ahead for this company and continuing downward pressure on its stock.

Bottom line: ZTE’s latest results reflect its ongoing push into low-cost cellphones, but it needs to show returns by the second half of this year or risk losing investor confidence.

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