The headlines are buzzing today with word that China’s leading theater chain operator Wanda Group has agreed to buy struggling US chain AMC Entertainment, calling it a landmark cultural exchange for Chinese firms expanding overseas. But to those applauding the deal, I would quickly caution not to celebrate just yet, as I see a greater than 50 percent chance that the sale will never close due to opposition from US politicians in this presidential election year. Let’s look at the deal first, which looks benign enough and was actually first reported 2 weeks ago when talks were in advanced stages. (previous post) Under their agreement, Wanda will buy struggling AMC from its current private equity owners for $2.6 billion, in what foreign media are calling the largest ever buyout of a US company by a Chinese one. (English article) Chinese media are noting the deal comes just a week after Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp (Nasdaq: NWSA) agreed to buy 20 percent of Bona Film (Nasdaq: BONA), a leading Chinese film distributor, implying the doors are opening in both directions to cross-border investment in the sensitive media and entertainment sectors. But anyone who follows Chinese investments in the US will know that US politicians love to get involved in anything even remotely sensitive, and that is even more likely to happen in this election year as candidates look for votes by portraying themselves as tough on China. That kind of grandstanding has led to problems mostly in the telecoms space so far, with China Mobile (HKEx: 941; NYSE: CHL), Huawei and ZTE (HKEx: 763; Shenzhen: 000063) all running into recent obstacles in their attempts to expand in the US. Politicians have also attacked the banking regulator for recently allowing several of China’s top banks to set up branches and make small acquisitions in the US for the first time, again reflecting how candidates are seizing on fears of these kinds of Chinese investments to raise their profiles. (previous post) Considering that movies are such a central part of American culture and that movie theaters are clearly a part of that picture, I could very easily see politicians raising objections to this latest deal, questioning the wisdom of letting such an important company into Chinese hands. Never mind that AMC and the theater industry in general are struggling due to tough competition not only from other theaters, but also from DVDs and newer products that let people watch and download movies over the Internet. The politicians won’t care about any of that, and they probably won’t care if AMC goes bankrupt in the end because no other company wants to buy it. All they will care about is looking tough against China in order to gain votes. All that said, I predict we will hear the first political objections to this deal within 2 weeks and potentially much sooner, and that all the negative publicity will give the deal a greater than 50-50 chance of ultimately collapsing, to the benefit of no one except the politicians.
Bottom line: The planned purchase of struggling US theater chain AMC by a Chinese buyer is likely to collapse due to objections from vote-seeking US politicians.
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